By Dr. Gyan Pathak
India’s demography is changing faster as per the UNFPA’s 2025 State of World Population (SOWP) report which has estimated it reached 146.39 crore by April 2025 compared to the India’s own technical group of experts projection of 141 crore. Faster than expected growth rate is but only one part of the challenges ahead. The report has actually revealed a host of real crisis that India will have to face in the years to come.
The most striking change is the declined fertility rate (TFR) to 1.9 falling below the replacement level of 2.1. Nevertheless, population would grow to 170 crore in about 40 years from now before starting to decline. SOWP 2025 says non-realisation of the fertility goals as the real crisis, not underpopulation or overpopulation. The most accurate picture on population would be known by March 2027, when India has scheduled to complete its Census, though with a delay of about 6 years.
This means that India will have increasingly more stomach to feed and will require more resources for its healthcare, education, and the means of livelihood. Though the World Bank has said in its June 2025 update that India has been able to considerably reduce the extreme poverty level from 27.1 per cent in 2011-12 to 5.3 per cent, the challenges remains, will be even more difficult to overcome. It should be noted that the World Bank’s poverty line is still at Rs250 per day ($3). Moreover, the consumption level included all the government’s welfare schemes including the free foodgrain to about 80 crore people of the country, who are still not able to purchase foodgrain since they don’t have enough means of livelihood.
Social welfare schemes make poverty just more tolerable, but it was counted as poverty alleviation. Actual position is that poverty reduces only when the poor person starts earning enough for their survival. His poverty remains as it is if he depends on others for survival, and has not his own income. The challenges on the ground remains, and with increasing population, these would be multiplied. India would have to prepare for this – delivery of food, healthcare, education, and the means of livelihood.
SOWP 2025 say as that in the 1970s, women in India on average had nearly five children. Now, they have close to two. Though this milestone reflects progress in health and education, but masks regional diversity in fertility rates. Fertility has fallen below the replacement level (2.1) in 31 States/UTs, but remains high in Bihar(3.0), Meghalaya (2.9) and Uttar Pradesh (2.7). Urban-rural gaps persist, and seven states have yet to reach replacement TFR in rural areas.
The gaps have other dimensions too. Many want children but cannot have them when they want; while others want to avoid pregnancy but cannot. And both issues may affect many people in the course of their lifetime. As for adolescent fertility rate, it remains high at 14.1 per 1000 women aged 15-19, which endangers both maternal and child health and affects education and employment outcomes.
The dimension of the challenges in reproductive health is more obvious in other data too, such as 36 per cent reported unintended pregnancy and 30 per cent unable to fulfill the desire for a child. A significant proportion about 23 per cent faced both issues.
The barriers to having children gives indications of other challenges that people are facing, which the country will have to address. Infertility or difficulty conceiving were reported by 13 per cent. Financial implications was reported the biggest barrier by 38 per cent is an indication that that India would need to face the financial challenges.
Economic insecurity is a major constraint, and nearly 4 in 10 people said financial implications as a key reason they are unable to have the families they want. Housing issues (22%), job insecurity (21%), and lack of affordable childcare (18%) further limit reproductive choices. Health-related barriers like poor general health or chronic illnesses (15%), infertility(13%), and inadequate access to pregnancy-related care are further challenges. WHO estimates infertility affects 3.9% to 16.8% of the Indian population.
The finding of SOWP 2025 specifically mentions a persistent dual burden. In states like Bihar, Jharkhand, and Uttar Pradesh, unintended and closely spaced births are common due to poor contraceptive and health services and gender norms. In Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Delhi, many couples delay or skip childbirth due to costs and work-life conflict, especially among educated middle-class women.
Globally, governments are adopting pro-natalist policies using various incentives through—bonuses, tax breaks, national campaigns—but SOWP 2025 cautions that these measures are often ineffective. They may entrench patriarchal norms and restrict reproductive rights.
Infertility also remains under-prioritised in India and needs to be considered for inclusion under the government’s health insurance schemes. An estimated 27.5 million Indian couples face infertility, yet public sector services are limited, while private care remains expensive and largely confined to urban centres. Social stigma is particularly harsh on women, though fertility challenges affect both sexes.
SOWP 2025 finds that about 30 per cent of the people reported concerns over future in India, as barrier in the way of having children. About 14 per cent expressed concerns about political or social situation and 16 per cent about climate change or environmental degradation.
The figures just conceal numerous multi-dimensional challenges covering almost all aspects of human life and the sectors of the economy. For example, the report mentioned even socio-political challenge as in the case of Andhra Pradesh, which repealed a law banning candidates with more than two children from seeking elected office earlier, but now the state authorities are considering a new ban, this time on candidates with fewer than two children.
The report also calls for protection against coercive policies due to demographic changes that have been taking place only to create demographic disbalance. It says, that politicians in southern India have called attention to the impact of lower fertility rates on parliamentary representation.
Then there are challenges like gender parity, human rights, distribution of resources, and special care to be given according to the nature of composition of the population. For example, in 2025, population of children in the age group 0-14 years are 24 per cent, in 10-19 about 17 per cent, in 10-14 about 26 per cent, in 15-64 about 68 per cent and above 65 about 7 per cent. The composition is likely to change and India will have to prepare itself with schemes for all of them.
When actual demographic data will come out in March 2027 with completion of Census, many other social, economic, and political issues would crop up. Being largest populated country of the world, its demographic challenges would obviously be the biggest, which the country needs to turn into demographic dividend. (IPA Service)
