It is difficult to believe that India, the world’s fourth largest economy by gross domestic product (GDP) and a major military power, ranks below even the tiny states of Kuwait and Greece when it comes to defence spending as a percentage of GDP. Considering the tricky geo-political situation in the south Asian region with China, India’s No. 1 enemy increasingly surrounding the country with its growing economic and military control over Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives, Pakistan and Nepal, India does not seem to be spending enough on its defence in the face of a growing China threat. In terms of gross value, India’s annual defence budget may not look that unimpressive, but it accounts for less than one-third of China’s defence expenditure of nearly $267 billion. The US continues to be the biggest defence spender with a budget of $895 billion. Russia’s defence budget is worth around $126 billion. India’s defence budget is estimated at only around $75 billion.
Effectively, India’s defence spending works out 1.9 percent of its GDP. Although China’s defence spending is officially estimated at only 1.5 percent of its economy, it excludes several important expenditures such as weapon imports, funding for the People’s Armed Police, and research and development, according to the orfonline.org. As a result, China’s effective defence expenditure may be largely hidden. Or, it could be significantly higher than the publicly shared estimate. Communist China, the third major global military power after the US and Russia, has been rapidly modernizing its technological capability in the defence sector as it is expanding its presence across the world, only next to the US. It is difficult to assess China’s actual military expenditure as it is also supposed to provide protection to the country’s Belts & Roads Initiative (BRI) investments that cover some 150 countries across the world. The Chinese BRI spans across Asia, Africa, Europe, Latin America, and the Pacific region.
Going by the recent reports, China has a potential base in Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Tanzania, Mauritius, Maldives and Myanmar. China is engaged in developing commercial seaports or free trade zones in the Indian Ocean’s points of these countries. China is also supporting these countries with finalized contracts for conventional arms sales. The US is concerned. And, so is India. This explains the formation of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, or Quad, operating as a strategic forum to promote regional security and cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region, with a focus on shared values and a free and open international order based on the rule of law. The Quad member countries are: the US, Japan, Australia, and India. Interestingly, after the latest meeting of the defence ministers of the 10-member Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which includes China, India, Pakistan and Iran, Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh refused to sign a draft statement that did not mention the Pahalgam terror attack. As a result, no joint declaration was made.
Pakistan’s defence spending is around 2.2 percent of its GDP. For the current fiscal year 2025-26, the country’s defence budget was initially proposed to be 1.97 percent of GDP. However, following the recent four-day India-Pakistan war, indications are that Pakistan’s defence spending, including hidden costs, military pensions and total military-related expenditure, may well exceed four percent of its GDP this year. In recent years, Pakistan’s defence spending has generally remained at around 2.5 percent of GDP. Largely import-dependent on China for critical war equipment stocks, Pakistan appears to be ready to fight proxy war for China in both the South and West Asian regions. China’s BRI investment in Pakistan, primarily through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), is estimated to cost $62 billion. The CPEC is a key component of the BRI, aiming to enhance connectivity and trade between the two countries.
The 27-member European Union, which appears to be fighting a proxy war in support of Ukraine against Russia, is looking to raise the defence expenditure to as high as five percent of its GDP due to a combination of factors, including Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, a reassessment of security risks, the need to modernize its defence capabilities, and to better align with NATO’s defence plans. According to reports, Ukraine’s prolonged war against Russia is behind the EU’s decision in support of a stronger and more unified European defence, particularly in the face of US President Donald Trump’s lack of interest in continuously fund-feeding the European partners of NATO. The EU defence expenditure target of five percent of GDP includes investments in broader security areas, such as infrastructure upgrades (roads, railways, bridges), cyber defence, and military mobility to facilitate quick reinforcement. Among the world’s top military spenders as percentage of GDP are: Ukraine (34.5 percent), Lebanon (10.5 percent), Israel (8.8 percent), Russia and Saudi Arabia (7.1 percent each), Kuwait (4.8 percent), Poland (4.2 percent) and the US (3.4 percent).
India’s proposed defence spending as a percentage of GDP in the 2025-26 budget, estimated to be 1.9 percent, represents a substantial decrease from its historical levels of around three percent, excluding large defence pensions, in the early 2000s. While the overall budget allocation for defence has increased in recent years, the percentage of GDP allocated for the purpose has remained at a relatively lower level below two percent. This is despite the changing security environment in the region in the last two decades. Recently, even Bangladesh had the guts to threaten India with possible military action to cut off the ‘chicken’s neck’ in the Dooars region to sever India’s land link with its eight north eastern states, namely Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, and Tripura. India should not take the first ever Bangladeshi threat of this nature lightly since the country’s import-dependent military is substantially controlled by China. This more than explains why India needs to increase its effective defence spending as a percentage of GDP in the coming years to remain fighting fit to protect the country’s territorial integrity and economic progress in the face of a Chinese proxy war using both Pakistan and Bangladesh against India. (IPA Service)
