India Needs Answer To Reliability Of Narendra Modi Government’s Data

By Dr. Gyan Pathak

The data that PM Narendra Modi government has been churning out since 2014 have always been a suspect. Now, by no less a person than PM Narendra Modi’s own Economic Advisor has indicated that many of the data earlier produced even under the Modi regime were “influenced” while chiefly targeting the Congress for that, as PM Narendra Modi and BJP does. He indirectly and unwittingly contradicts Modi government’s claim on reliability of their high-quality data sets, giving rise to the question – Are Modi government’s data reliable? It is a question whose answer India needs.

For example, in a reply to a question related to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has informed the Rajya Sabha on August 2, 2022 that the “NFHS provides high quality, reliable and comparable data”. The Modi Government’s claim in the Rajya Sabha was made after NFHS-5 report were out, especially to eulogize the government’s achievements. However, PM Modi’s economic advisor Sanjeev Sanyal’s latest claim that “USAID effectively ran India’s National Family Health Survey (NFHS) from the 1990s” till it was stopped two years ago in 2022 by PM Modi’s dispensation, alleging that United States Agency of International Development (USAID) paved way for designing surveys and analyses to support certain social narratives. It makes the entire government data’s credibility questionable, though Modi government had claimed the data was of high quality.

Sanyal has been a member of the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-OM) since February 2022. Union Minister of Health Mansukh Mandaviya had released NFHS-5 report on May 5, 2022. The report has since been frequently used to push two different kinds of narratives. Modi government used the data to push the growth narrative, while the opposition used the same data to point out stark reality of government failure.

The narrative about which Sanyal has now implied the second kind of narrative that goes against the government’s narrative, while putting light on the surreptitious role of the United States’s Agency USAID in shaping India’s medical and social policies, besides meddling with the Indian elections.

“Those concerned about USAID’s interference in Indian elections should be equally concerned about USAID’s tentacles in India’s medical system and social policies. USAID effectively ran India’s National Family Health Survey (NFHS) from the 1990s till it was stopped two years ago,” Sanyal had written on social media platform X.

Former Chief Election Commissioner S Y Quraishi has already rejected the report that US agency funding was used for raising voter turnout in India when he headed the poll body. His reaction has come after the US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by billionaire Elon Musk announced a series of expenditure cuts, including $21 million allocated for “voter turnout in India”. Nevertheless, BJP is using this report targeting Congress for allowing such foreign interferences in India’s domestic affairs.

By bringing NFHS into the controversy, PM Modi’s Economic Advisor Sanyal has just been trying to push the BJP’s narrative against the Congress, as well as BJP’s narrative of wonderful achievements under PM Narendra Modi, indirectly saying that what went against the Modi government’s narrative in the NFHS data were influenced by foreign interference only to malign or discredit Modi Government.

USAID was kicked out from the NFHS and NFHS-6 was conducted during 2023-24 solely by International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS), the result of which is yet to be published. Only after the publication of the NFHS-6 report the country will know the pure Modi Government’s narrative.

What led to great controversy when NFHS-5 report was released in May 2022 was the certain data set that were very inconvenient to the Modi government’s narrative of growth. For example, PM Modi and BJP has been telling the country how poverty has been drastically declined under his rule, while the health data of mortality, anaemia, wasting and stunting just contradicted the government claim. Modi government was totally exposed by the data set.

Modi government finally suspended the Director of IIPS K S James in July 2023. He was compelled to resign thereafter in October 2023.

Sanyal’s allegation should be viewed in this backdrop when he says that “by allowing them (USAID) to design surveys and direct analysis, we were letting them influence our national health responses. Equally worryingly, much of the NFHS questionnaire was deliberately skewed to support social narratives. The questionnaire for men, for instance, is only 29 pages but that for women is 94 pages.” He added, “A lot of the additional questions are deliberately worded to elicit a narrative of intra-family violence against India women. Must say, very slyly done.”

Though Sanyal has admitted that Modi government took eight long years to discontinue USAID influence in NFHS, he left many questions unanswered, the chief among them is – how fare the data Modi government has been churning out since 2014, and the claims based on that are reliable? Are the government surveys are not designed to push Modi government narrative? Are the data produced the by the government are neutral?

Such questions need urgent answer in the given background and track record of the government. We can cite several examples apart from suspension and enforced resignation of the Director of IIPS. For example, during the first term of Modi government, it had discarded its own Consumption Expenditure Survey data, since it brought inconvenient results. By the end of 1019, government suppressed unemployment data of NSSO which was leaked revealing unemployment at 45 years high, which was followed by several resignation of National Statistical Commission including its acting chairman P C Mohanan. Government has been manipulating data on employment, by even including unpaid persons as employed, to show high employment rate and reduced unemployment rate in the country.

Modi’s Economic Advisor Sanyal does not talk about how data have been churning out to push the government narrative only, while the narrative talking about the stark reality on the ground are suppressed.

Take another example even from NFHS-6, the result of which is being keenly awaited. The survey has dropped even questions on disability and biomarker data on anaemia. It should be noted that high prevalence of anaemia was interpreted as people are not getting enough food to eat which contradicts Modi’s claim that poverty has declined below 5 per cent of the population. NFHS-5 revealed that in 2019-21, 57 per cent of women aged 15-49 and 25 per cent of men aged in the same age group had anaemia. In Children aged 6-59 months, 67.1 per cent had anaemia. Among adolescent 56 per cent girls and 30 per cent boys had anaemia, and among pregnant women half were suffering from anaemia.

Modi government has therefore just discontinued collecting data on anaemia under NFHS-6. Why? Does it not amount to influencing narratives in favour of the government? What should be the credibility of the data Modi government has been producing? Sanyal must push for neutral data production rather than pushing the government narrative and decrying all who talk about people’s narrative of the ground level reality. (IPA Service)