Amidst the speculation making round the political circle that NDA leadership has nearly reached a consensus in the matter of seat sharing for the 2025 assembly election in Bihar by year end, comes the news that the coordination committee of Bihar unit of INDIA block has sought district wise list of the probable contestants from its partners within a week.
While winnability would be the main factor, the INDIA bloc would focus on the issues closely associated with Dalits, EBC and minorities. Usually the alliance partners make irrational demands. Keeping this in mind the meeting told the members in no uncertain terms that they must adhere to the ground realities and their strength. It was pointed out that unusual demands simply harm the interest of the gathbandhan (alliance) and creates confusion amongst the people.
RJD chief Tejashvi Yadav made it abundantly clear that the partners must not use the election for simply projecting themselves as a potent and powerful organisation, instead the focus should be on defeating the BJP. The members shared the view that this election is very crucial for the future of the state and its people. The BJP is planning to use its full might to win the election and once it comes back to power, it would install its own chief minister. A BJP chief minister in office, the feudal lords would let loose reign of terror in Bihar.
At the last meeting of the state coordination committee, the leaders were nevertheless in agreement that seat sharing should be prioritised and ought to be finalised well in advance as the INDIA bloc leaders may take up intensive campaigning. Though the ally leaders would be charting out their own campaigning schedule, the leaders agreed that the emphasis should be on a common minimum programme and electoral agenda. Tejashvi pressed for early seat sharing as the late hour finalisation badly impinges the campaigning as the leaders find little time to campaign for their partners.
Congress’s Bihar in-charge Krishna Allavaru nonetheless revealed that state Congress was ready to launch campaign. It was just waiting for the finalisation of the seats. He was however hopeful that seat-sharing discussions would be concluded well ahead of the election schedule. Going by the mood prevailing in the Congress circles, the party would not like to contest out of proportion seats. It will confine to judicious number of seats with the focus to win those seats, to gain a high strike rate
Rahul Gandhi has already made a massive structural changes in the party from the state to block level and the new leadership is striving hard to reach out to the voters, especially the Dalits and backwards. Recent rallies led by Rahul Gandhi and Kanhaiya Kumar simply makes it apparent that a new batch of committed cadres and supporters has surfaced at the block level who are determined to defeat BJP. Well before the process of seat sharing had begun this time, the allies have conveyed their reservation on contesting these 40-45 seats and requested RJD leaders to distribute these seats amongst all the member partner.
CPI(ML) general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya said that INDIA bloc is steadily moving ahead and the seat sharing would be finalised well in advance. He was sure that it is not going to be a major issue. Meanwhile a senior RJD leader expressed surprise at the media hurry to press the INDIA bloc finalise the issue.
Though media has been carrying news of amicable seat sharing in the NDA, the fact remains otherwise. JD(U) leadership is not willing to listen to Narendra Modi and Amit Shah and lower their claim of contesting minimum 100 seats. The fact is the formal seat sharing process is yet to begin in the NDA. While the INDIA bloc was having its meet on Thursday in Patna, the JD(U) leaders, its national working president Sanjay Kumar Jha, ministers Bijendra Yadav and Vijay Kumar Choudhary, and MLC Lallan Sharraf, also met on Thursday to begin preparations. Baring Sanjay, all the three are the close lieutenants of Nitish Kumar.
In 2020 the JD(U) had contested 115 seats but could win 43. The party became victim of the machination of Modi and Shah, who inspired Chirag Paswan to field his candidates against JD(U) candidates. Using the situation BJP won 74.seats. The JD(U) later blamed Chirag for damaging its prospects in several constituencies.
However, sources say that an inner party survey carried out by a professional agency has conveyed to the BJP leadership that a bleak future stares at the party and the party may not perform well. Caste factor which has always played the decisive role in Bihar politics, does not appear to be favouring the BJP. Though a major section of OBC may rally behind BJP, the Dalits, EBC and Minorities are willing to support INDIA Bloc , especially Congress and Left. It is worth mentioning that a statewide survey in November 2023 had said that over 60 per cent of population from Extremely Backward and Backward Classes are already pitching for Congress and INDIA bloc: there are 27% Backward Classes, 36% Extremely Backward Classes.
An impression is being created that NDA will follow the seat sharing formula of 2024 Lok Sabha in which the BJP had contested 17 seats, JD(U) 16, LJP(RV) 5, and HAM and RLM one each. This time the parties would be allowed to contest seats In proportion to 2024 election. But the JD(U) has ruled out this proposition. According to sources, out of the 243 assembly seats, the JD(U) could contest 102-103 seats, and the BJP 101-102. The remaining 40 seats will be distributed among Chirag Paswan’s LJP, Jitan Ram Majhi’s HAM, and Upendra Kushwahas’s RLM. (IPA Service)
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