By Girish Linganna
The commencement of the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022 changed Germany’s defence and diplomatic strategies. The Israel-Hamas conflict erupted in October 2023, once again drawing Germany’s attention to security concerns. Germany, which has long practised ‘pacifism’ and ‘military restraint’, has steadily increased its military capabilities during the past two years.
The country issued its first post-World War II ‘National Security Strategy’ in June 2023, followed by its first defence policy guidelines in 12 years just five months later. Germany also advocated a new role for the country in the defence sector, namely that of a cornerstone of European deterrence and collective defence. Whether Germany will re-emerge as a military force has sparked some debate and alarm.
At NATO’s Heart in Europe: In light of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, many locals with no prior military experience are training as reserve troops at military facilities to ‘protect the motherland”. According to Chancellor Olaf Scholz, this conflict marked a turning moment, a historic turning point for Europe and Germany. Following this, Germany has accelerated its military reforms, most recently establishing itself as a foundation of European deterrence and collective defence.
German Defence Minister Pistoleus announced the country’s new defence policy guidelines on November 9, 2023. This is the first set of defence recommendations produced by Germany since conscription was abolished in 2011, highlighting the significance of the turning point for the German Federal Armed Forces in the context of the period of transition. Pistoleus claimed the government would increase military capabilities, speed military bureaucratic reform and accelerate acquisition and construction plans for currently stalled equipment. These initiatives are intended to position Germany as a pillar of European deterrence and collective defence.
Pistoleus has stated that Germany is preparing for war and intends to assume a leadership role in European defence. Germany is progressively accepting its new role, permanently deploying a combat brigade to Lithuania. Berlin has progressively armed itself inside the NATO framework since prioritizing national and alliance defence in 2014.
However, in the recently issued military policy guidelines, Germany expresses fresh trust in its European and American friends, declaring a willingness to lead and accepting leadership responsibility. Chancellor Scholz positioned Berlin as the key hub of NATO in Europe regarding security policy on the second day after Pistorius unveiled the new German defence policy guidelines.
Was the abolition of conscription a mistake? Following the commencement of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, Germany’s foreign and security policies underwent substantial modifications. In 2022, a 100-billion euro special fund was formed for the German Federal Armed Forces to purchase sophisticated weapons. Germany also vowed to reach NATO’s target of defence spending accounting for at least 2% of GDP beginning in 2024. Scholz recently claimed that this spending level would be maintained throughout the 2020s and 2030s.
Although Germany had previously released certain security policy guiding papers and statements, it lacked a comprehensive, explicit national security plan as in the June 2023 document. This approach represents a major rethink and reworking of Germany’s security policy. In launching the plan, the German Foreign Ministry declared that it employs a comprehensive security paradigm, considering security as an inherent aspect of all policy sectors—not only military and diplomatic domains. The approach focuses on three aspects of German security-a strong defence including greater military spending, resilience and addressing tge effects of climate change.
Germany has taken real steps in military reform and formulating plans and strategies. Pistoleus earlier announced the liquidation of three sub-departments under the Ministry of Defence, with over 1,000 personnel undergoing internal restructuring, marking the largest-scale reform of the German Federal Armed Forces since 2012.
Conscription could also become one of Germany’s military reform programmes. According to Deutsche Welle, Pistoleus received 65 specific ideas regarding conscription and revamping soldier training methods, indicating that the abolition of conscription at the time, in 2011, had its reasons, but it was a mistake in retrospect.
Germany also intends to purchase air defence systems with other NATO member countries to protect friendly territory from missile assaults. The initiative is known as the ‘European Sky Shield’. Furthermore, Germany is strengthening defence collaboration with European allies, particularly France, through collaborative development initiatives for next-generation weapon systems.
Germany is also actively investing in European aircraft manufacturing giant Airbus to collaborate further on developing the Typhoon combat plane. In a recent interview with German media, Chancellor Scholz said he hoped to establish a missile defence system within five years. He indicated that the administration was discussing with manufacturers to make clear decisions.
Europe’s largest economy is witnessing a shift in security attitudes after decades of stagnation. Given Germany’s role in starting both World Wars I and II, military policy has long been considered taboo in the country. The publication of Germany’s National Security Strategy signals a significant shift in its pacifism and military restraint ideals, indicating a more methodical strategic theoretical framework for Germany’s actively involved national security policy. Germany’s military policy adjustments and upgrades attempt to break free from the so-called shadow of World War II and return to a typical country with a military.
Germany’s military traditions would have a tremendous impact on Europe and the world if its military power increased. This might call into doubt Germany’s diplomatic and security policy, which are now constrained. The rising military power of Germany would also alter the balance of European security systems. Furthermore, the recently issued German defence policy guidelines reflect the country’s ambition to engage with the world order and the influence of Germany’s military rise on global security and peace is worth special consideration.
Faced with varied questions: How capable is Germany of becoming a ‘pillar of European deterrence and collective defence’? Germany considerably downsized its armed forces following the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990. In the 1970s and 1980s, West Germany’s military forces, known then as the Federal Military Forces, had over 500,000 men. In comparison, the East German National People’s Army still had around 168,000 men at the end of 1989. The size of the German Federal Armed Forces had to be decreased to roughly 370,000 people due to international agreements established following reunification.
Conscription was abolished in Germany in 2011 and the Federal Armed Forces were made up of professional soldiers, part-time soldiers and volunteers. The German Federal Armed Forces reported roughly 181,000 people at end-October 2023, remaining some distance from the target of growing military size to 203,000 by 2025.
According to data from the Global Firepower website, which monitors defence information for 145 nations, and posted by the German statistics website, Statista, in May 2023, Germany ranked only 25th in the world regarding the strongest ground forces. The United Kingdom and France have the most powerful military capabilities in Europe, owing to advantages in force numbers, overseas intervention capabilities and weapon equipment.
Germany is still unable to compete with them. However, according to research quoted by Deutsche Welle from the Bonn International Centre for Conversion, the German Federal Armed Forces are broadly similar to the armed forces of the United Kingdom and France in terms of equipment and operational preparedness.
Numerous hurdles in the way: For Germany to become a ‘pillar of European deterrence and collective defence’, the number of German military personnel must be greatly increased and professional soldiers may have to be transformed into conscripts, which would raise legal and financial concerns. If Germany invests extensively in the military, other parts of public spending will inevitably suffer.
Germany has a pacifist tradition and it may be difficult for the general population to choose defence over pacifism. Germany is restricted from possessing certain heavy weapons and it is not permitted to own an aircraft carrier, let alone nuclear weapons. While Germany is the most powerful country in European production capacity, it primarily produces civilian goods.
A major rise in defence industrial investment might greatly influence Germany’s whole foreign trade structure, as the country now earns foreign exchange by exporting civilian products. When Germany’s military strength rises to a certain level, other European countries become concerned and these countries may not back Berlin’s actions.
Following the commencement of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, popular support for Germany’s military expansion has grown. The recent escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict has produced an increase in public concern for national security. According to a recent survey by the German Koerber Foundation, most Germans (71%) do not want their country to play a military leadership role in Europe.
According to the survey, most Germans oppose a more militarized foreign policy and prefer diplomatic solutions to international disputes. More than three-quarters of respondents feel that Germany’s international interactions should be handled diplomatically, with only 12% favouring German military intervention in foreign wars. According to the survey, 57% of Germans believe that Germany’s worldwide influence has diminished since the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2022.
Many Germans are taken aback by Defence Minister Kramp-Karrenbauer’s words on preparing for war. Following the fall of the Berlin Wall and the reunification of East and West Germany in 1990, several people questioned whether Germany still required a military. German soldiers’ deployments in the Kosovo War in 1999 and Afghanistan in 2001 sparked controversy. Many people’s attitudes have evolved as a result of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, but the majority of the people still do not want Germany to go to war.
Financial restrictions are also a major impediment to Germany’s military capability development. Germany is currently confronted with financial limits, with public debt limited to 60% of GDP under the applicable terms of Germany’s ‘debt brake’. A considerable increase in defence spending could lead to significant losses in financing for such areas as healthcare, education and transportation.
Bureaucratic impediments have long hampered Germany’s ambitions to build its military. Recent research indicates that bureaucracy has, generally, hampered procuring new weaponry for the German armed forces. Before the Scholz administration’s changes to military procedures, anyone in the German military who wanted to spend more than 1,000 euros on a single order had to apply through a separate civilian procurement office, which had the potential to result in delays of several years.
The German Defence Minister’s demand for the Federal Armed Forces to prepare for war can only be met through unprecedented armament purchases, such as acquiring billions of dollars in strategic deterrents. It needs to be seen whether Germany can build a formidable defence force against Russia, or if this is merely wartime rhetoric, or a Washington-pleasing scheme. (IPA Service)
(The author is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru.)
