By Nitya Chakraborty
Contrary to the latest anti-far right polling trends in the national elections in the United States, Brazil, Serbia and Israel in the last two weeks, France is witnessing increasing support for the far right candidate Marine Le Pen in the crucial Presidential elections in the country scheduled on April 18, 2027.The recent opinion polls give the leader of Rassemblement National (RN) between 35 to 37 per cent in the first round as against 15 to 17 per cent by the far left candidate Jean Luc Melenchon.
According to the French constitution, if no candidate gets more than 50 per cent votes in the Presidential polls in the first round, the runoff will be held with the participation of the first two candidates of the first round and the candidate getting maximum votes, will be elected. So if no one gets more than 50 per cent in the first round, the runoff will be held on May 2.That way, the trend is that the final decision on the new President will be taken only in the run-off. Before the runoff, generally, new alliances take place on the basis of the results of the first round. For 2027 first round polls, there can be many candidates but in the run off, the candidates, apart from first two, will have to decide their nature of support.
With only five months left for the first round of Presidential elections, there are many aspirants for Presidential polls in the first round. President Emanuel Macron is not contesting as he has already completed two terms in office. His Party has got three aspirants. The United Left, a combination of non far Left parties also has a candidate. French Communist Party general secretary Fabien Roussel has also announced his candidature for the first round.
OpinionWay tested three possible candidate line-ups, depending on whether centrist Mr Philippe and fellow former Prime Minister Gabriel Attal both stand. In the first scenario, where both men are candidates, Ms Le Pen receives 35% of first-round voting intentions. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the left-wing La France Insoumise, comes second with 14%, followed by Mr Glucksmann of united Left on 13%.
Mr Philippe receives 12%, down from 15% in September, while Mr Attal polls at 7%. When Mr Attal is the only centrist candidate, Ms Le Pen’s score rises to 37%, up from 34% in September. Mr Glucksmann comes second in this scenario with 16%, ahead of Mr Mélenchon on 15%. Mr Attal receives 11%.
In the third scenario, where Mr Philippe is the only centrist candidate, Ms Le Pen polls at 35%, compared with 34% in September. Mr Philippe, Mr Mélenchon and Mr Glucksmann are all level on 15%. Mr Philippe’s score has fallen from 19% in September, while Mr Glucksmann’s has risen from 10%.
Mr Glucksmann, co-president of the left-wing Place Publique party, has gained four to five percentage points across the three scenarios tested by OpinionWay. The increase follows his victory in the Socialist Party primary, although it remains too early to know whether his support will continue to rise as the campaign develops in the next five months.. He could attract voters who want a left-wing alternative to Mr Mélenchon. However, the figures do not establish how much support either candidate could gain or lose if other left-wing parties were to unite behind a single candidate.
As regards 2027 Presidential race, the possibility of a broader left-wing alliance has also been raised, potentially bringing together the Socialists, Place Publique, the Greens and the Communists. Mr Mélenchon remains competitive among the anti far Right candidates. In 2024 parliamentary elections, after the first round, the anti far right parties decided on alliance against Mari Le Pen’s party and did well by emerging as the largest group in Parliament. Though President Macron manipulated by ditching the combined Left by installing a government of his own supporters, the Left group as a whole remains strong in parliament.
The French Communist Party which worked for total alliance of Left in 2024 elections after the first round, is divided on support to Melenchon as the combined Presidential candidate of the Left. Four of the party’s eight MPs, including the leader of the parliamentary group Stephane Peu, announced on Thursday that they would back Mr Melenchon, citing the need for left unity and the challenge of defeating the far right Marine Le Pen who is leading in the opinion polls.
Mr Peu said Mr Melenchon was the only “credible candidate” who could unite the left. But the decision is a breach of democratic centralism, as the French Communist Party voted at its September congress to run an independent presidential bid under leader Fabien Roussel.
Mr Roussel said the defection was “not very elegant” and that he had learned of it from a press release as they had not phoned him. While the Communist Party’s national council statement that the defectors had “placed themselves outside the party” sounds like expulsion, it also said they would be barred from speaking on behalf of the party “during the campaign,” suggesting the breach might not be permanent.
Mr Melenchon did not seem to think it was, saying he was “moved” to stand “shoulder to shoulder with the Communist group in the struggle to hoist the left into the second round,” and remarking that Mr Peu was “just as communist as he was yesterday.”
Melenchon presided over a rally to launch LFI’s manifesto on Saturday. The platform includes a gradual withdrawal of France from NATO, unilateral renunciation of a number of EU regulations, recognises Israel’s genocide in Gaza and rejects further French co-operation with that state, as well as tax rises for the rich and corporations to fund higher wages and public services.
For the Left, the imperative is to see that a Left candidate emerges as number two in the first round so that the centrists can be persuaded to join the anti-far right front to defeat the far right candidate Marine Le Pen. Right now, the situation is volatile as the violence in students protests has helped the far right candidate in getting French middle class support by talking more fiercely against immigrants. Next few months are crucial for the French Left and the liberals to put their house in order for putting up a joint fight against the far right in the 2027 presidential polls. (IPA Service)
