By Ashis Biswas
Irrespective of the general impact of the recent Assembly
elections in five states, resulting in a major setback for the BJP ahead of the
2019 Lok Sabha polls, the political situation in West Bengal has just got much
more complex.
Chief minister Mamata Banerjee is at the crossroads: her
ambition of playing a stellar role within the unified bloc of non-Congress
opposition parties will now be difficult to fulfill, with the INC recording
major gains. The Congress has recovered much of its lost ground, relevance and
prestige. The regional parties in contrast did not do very well. Even the Mayawati-led
BSP, with its assured support base in several states, could not play its
spoiler role effectively enough. That is nothing short of a warning for parties
like Trinamool Congress (TMC) or the Telugu Desam (TDP), clear leaders in the
opposition pack.
The TMC has consistently underplayed the importance of
INC in the political battle to oust the BJP from power. Having practically
wiped out Congress in Bengal by force or money power, Mamata has repeatedly
said that strong ruling regional parties should go it alone.
The assumption is that having won 34 seats in 2014, her
party, which has all but decimated the Left parties and the Congress, may win
even more in 2019. She and her nephew Abhishek Banerjee (MP from Diamond Harbour)
have called upon party workers and supporters to make sure that all 42 seats go
to the TMC, creating an opposition-free state. If TMC emerges as the strongest regional
party in the 2019 polls, leaders reckon, both Congress and the BJP will listen to
TMC”s terms instead of dictating them to secure a majority.
But
the broad takeaway from the five state assembly elections has not proved
encouraging for such sweet TMC dreams. Even in the states where local issues assume
great importance, people have shown their clear preference for political
traditions and track record. They voted strongly for two national, not
regional, parties. Telangana has been the only exception, (its size rules out
the example set in MIzoram).
One reason for this could be that by now the Indian
electorate very well understands the pressure tactics (blackmail?) that smaller
parties use against larger parties in uneasy coalitions to secure their narrow
state-level ends. Worse, when not satisfied, they do not hesitate to walk out,
deserting their senior partners, without bothering about the resultant
destabilisation.
With the 2019 Lok Sabha polls barely months away, the
apparent reluctance of voters to support regional parties should worry the TMC,
TDP and similar regional outfits. Next year, state level issues will be
important in some pockets. But national issues, especially the impact of recent
policies of the Centre on common people, will matter much more.
Above all, Congress president Rahul Gandhi has finally
‘arrived’, although there are still critics who say political greatness has
been thrust upon him. Even for hardened BJP leaders, it will not be easy to
ridicule him. His baptism by fire has ended. Now there is no reason why the
resurgent Congress, led by a youthful leader whom common people take more seriously
than before, should hold back any longer.
While this is bad news for the BJP, it may be worse for
Mamata. While most other opposition parties have no objection to working with Congress
and accepting its president as the natural leader of a united opposition, Mamata
has different ideas. The TMC has proposed to leave the choice of a leader
ending till the outcome is known. The TMC also prefers to fight on its own
without pre-electoral ties with any outfit because it will ensure a division
among the voters opposing it. Anti-TMC votes will be shared between BJP and the
LF/Congress alliance (if there is one), or split three ways—for the BJP, the
Left Front parties led by the CPI(M) and the INC.
The Bengal Congress unit led by president Somen Mitra has
strongly opposed any understanding with the TMC and with Rahul at the helm, it
is unlikely that the party high command will overrule the state. However, both
the left front and Congress in Bengal are keen to have a pre electoral
alliance, but not everyone agrees. The CPI(M) Central Committee, which has
overruled Bengal in the past may not endorse Kolkata’s demand.
There
is no doubt that as of now, with its support base intact among the Muslims (27%
of the population) and its rural support base, the TMC is poised to become the
largest single party in 2019. No opposition party can even come close, let
alone win more seats than the TMC.
Game over then, for the opposition? Not quite. The recently
held panchayat elections, which saw widespread one-sided violence unleashed by
TMC and the death of over 60 people in group clashes, etc, also exposed its
weakness. While 34% of the gram panchayat seats were won by TMC as the
opposition candidates were terrorised, depriving 1.7 crore voters from
exercising their franchise, the strongest challenge to the ruling party came
from within. The ‘independents’ mostly dissident TMC men who could not secure
nominations, contested on their own strength and won 24% of the aggregate vote,
securing second position. The BJP came third winning 17%.
TMC
insiders claim to have won between 42% and 44% of the aggregate vote. But if
true, that would leave only around 15% of the total vote shared between the LF
parties and Congress, which seems absurd, on any reckoning. Most observers
think that even at its weakest, the CPI(M) and other Left parties would still win
around 20-25% of the total vote even in the most one-sided elections.
More alarmingly, it has not been possible for TMC to win
back many of the dissident winners in the panchayat polls, as its leaders
claimed they would be able to do. Given the daily recurrence of violence among
TMC factions, openly involving its youth wing against the party proper, it is
unlikely that leaders can restore even minimal order. Police sources confirm
the death of over 100 TMC supporters and workers in inner party violence over a
two-year period.
To complicate matters further, there are reports of such
dissidents joining hands with the local BJP or Left parties to fight TMC. A
recent high profile expulsion of a north Bengal TMC leader has occurred because
of his’ hobnobbing with the BJP.’
Should TMC leaders first set
their own house in order before turning their attention to developments in
Delhi or elsewhere? Ironically, the idea would receive some support within the
TMC itself. Unfortunately their supreme leader is not willing to listen as of
now. (IPA Service)
The post Congress Resurgence Complicates Bengal Scenario appeared first on Newspack by India Press Agency.
