By Tirthankar Mitra
KOLKATA: Not too long ago, BJP-led NDA government at the Centre was vehemently opposed to caste census. But in a dramatic policy reversal, the dispensation led by Narendra Modi has given its nod to it.
It is no coincidence that such policy reversal comes ahead of the key Assembly elections in Bihar together with the Pahalgam terror attack. The timing of the decision to have a caste census does not quite make it like a moral reckoning.
Rather it is more like a calculated political move. The electoral chessboard, political observers feel is yet to be reshaped by the move especially in the regions where caste remains a central axis of political power and identity.
The about turn decision of the powers that be is a pointer to how political pragmatism trumps ideological consistency. Caste census was once considered to be divisive by the saffron camp; overnight it is being considered to be necessary.
And there is little explanation for the change. Prime Minister Modi and BJP, the party he belongs to and where his is the last word, have long resisted caste based census. What brought about the change in mindset?
Boosting BJP’s prospects in the coming Bihar elections readily comes to mind if one reads between the lines. Together with its ally Janata Dal (United), the saffron brigade is looking forward to consolidate the support of a large number of non-Yadav OBCs.
It has also in its sight the votes of Extremely Backward Classes, Mahadalits and Pasmanda Muslims. It also has the North-South divide in its sight while saying aye to caste census. The new thinking in BJP is the feeling that a caste census will equip it to better navigate the delimitation exercise after this census. There is resistance to delimitation down South.
The southern states feel that they may be short charged having put up a better performance than northern states in sectors like health and family planning. If the caste census throws up larger number of communities that continue to be backward in South, then the saffron camp feels that it is better placed to counter it.
The U-turn directly undercuts the main plank of the Opposition even as BJP leadership got wind of the ground shifting below their feet in caste sensitive Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. It seeks to fizzle out the game plan of Congress, Rashtriya Janata Dal and Samajwadi Party who have collectively framed the issue of caste census as a plank of social justice..
Updating caste date, according to Opposition leaders like Rahul Gandhi, Tejashwi Yadav and Akhilesh Yadav is an essential precondition to improve the lot of the backward castes. And without it, all efforts to better their state of being is like whistling in the dark.
Thus caste census is the rallying cry of the Opposition to consolidate the backward caste votes. Agreeing to have caste census, the BJP is seeking to defuse the most potent political weapon of the Opposition.
It is also a bid to let the saffron camp reframe the caste census in its own terms. What is essentially a move to capture backward caste votes will be dolled up in a nationalistic garb to promote inclusivity.
The saffron think tank seems to be of the view that its core electoral base upper caste and urban voters has already been consolidated. But given its hobnobbing with the backward castes while taking these voter segments for granted, can lead to their withdrawal of support upsetting the BJP’s applecart.
But as things stand, the BJP seeks greater penetration into the Other Backward Classes (OBC). The saffron think tank is only too aware the voters of these castes feel unrepresented despite their heft. There is no denial of the fact that welfare schemes and reservations can be recalibrated with caste data. But there is another side to it which is fraught with risks.
The caste census is not about numbers. It is about power and no party especially the BJP can ignore it. The BJP has ended its hesitation forced by political necessity. But it is early days yet to predict how things will turn out as caste and religion are issues that affect people deep-down. A Pandora’s box is about to be opened. And all the political parties have to be ready to face the consequences. (IPA Service)
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