By Nitya Chakraborty
Just 48 hours before the historic national elections in Bangladesh on February 12, there has been a sudden change in the pre poll scenario with a section of Awami League supporters coming out openly in support of the BNP candidates who have record of supporting 1971 Liberation war and are sternly opposed to their rival Jamaat e Islami. This has imparted a new dimension to the electoral battle between the two main alliances-one led by the BNP and the other led by Jamaat and the NCP.
Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League is banned from participating in the February 12 elections. All surveys in the recent period said that AL has a electoral support base of 25 to 30 per cent. What will be the final position of the Awami League supporters on the polling day? Now the latest developments indicate that in three districts where AL has still maintained its traditional support base, the AL leaders have attended the election meetings of some selected BNP leaders and extended their support to them as they have a record of fighting Jamaat and supporting the values of Liberation war.
Political observers in Dhaka infer that this is not a general decision, right now, it is just limited to three districts Faridpur, Barisal and to some extent Mymensingh. Perhaps Sheikh Hasina has given this flexibility to her party cadres and supporters to take the decision based on the constituency level situation. Right now, the sources say that this is limited to about 60 out of 300 constituencies, but this support fever may spread on the polling day February 12. If it does that, there will be a big sweep of BNP, it is sure.
This late limited understanding between BNP and AL makes sense for many reasons. Firstly, BNP has always been a sensible Parliamentary Party and its experience in heading two governments in Bangladesh has given it maturity. The BNP is afraid of the rapid emergence of Jamaat as its rival since the party fears that Jamaat with its huge financial muscle power and the gang of hooligans will pose a real threat to the BNP if it comes closer to power. Jamaat never got more than 4 per cent in elections. Before 2024, Sheikh Hasina stopped Jamaat’s foreign funds flow, but the Yunus government restored it in September 2024 after the interim government took over. Since then, Jamaat has been getting huge funds from different groups based in West Asia. BNP is no match in terms of financial muscle power.
For Awami League, the prime consideration is that BNP even after the ouster of Hasina following August 2024 students revolt was not in favour of total ban of Awami League from elections. BNP wanted that those who were involved in killing and corruption should be banned but AL as a party can participate. The BNP consideration was that banning AL might not give full legitimacy to the elections. AL leaders at this moment have no option but to strengthen those who are more considerate to AL and not as revengeful as are the Jamaats. If the BNP comes to power, AL consideration is that the things for AL might turn out better for bargaining with the BNP government for allowing democratic functioning.
BNP leader Tarique Rahman, the projected Prime Minister of the BNP government if it comes to power, is showing all the gentleness and sobriety in his speeches. He has expressed his desire to improve relations with India and other nations on the basis of the sovereignty of Bangladesh. At the same time, he is not giving any impression that under his leadership, Bangladesh will act like the Sheikh Hasina government of earlier years. This assertion is important for him because there is still all pervading impression that Sheikh Hasina turned Bangladesh into a satellite nation of India.
This may not be fully correct but in politics perception is important and this influences the common people’s minds. Jamaat-NCP alliance is basing its campaign on the theme that BNP is another version of Awami League. Tarique will surrender to India once he comes to power. Only Jamaat alliance can lead an independent sovereign Bangladesh defying big brother India. This campaign has many takers and that is what worries the BNP So in the course of the campaign, many BNP leaders are resorting to anti-India rhetoric to play into the gallery.
BNP is contesting in 272 seats out of the total of 300. 28 seats have been given to other alliance partners. Jamaat is contesting in 228 seats, its alliance partner NCP has been given 30 seats and the other small partners have been given a total of 42 seats. Both BNP and Jamaat are striving hard to emerge as the single largest party, if not majority. The election manifestoes released by BNP, Jamaat and NCP released in last week also see competition in giving welfare schemes to the women, students and the farmers. The NCP has claimed that it proposes to bring equity with dignity if it comes to power. The NCP has also said that its alliance with Jamaat is only this election specific. The party will have its independent programme.
Among the political parties, the image of the NCP, the party of the students who pioneered the July revolution, now lies in tatters. The progressives in Bangladesh hoped that the NCP will opt for a mature course and follow its independent path to build a new Bangladesh as the leaders said during the stormy days of 2024 revolt. The Party was founded in February 2025, but in the last one year, the leaders got split, failed to lead the young, opted for virulent anti- India position. In the students union elections in all the key universities in Bangladesh last year, Jamaat decimated both BNP and NCP students wing. In fact NCP came third. The leadership realized that the ground has slipped, the Gen Z are no longer with them.
But the irony is that the same leaders who talked of a progressive Bangladesh instead of fighting on their own on the basis of their ideals tied up with Jamaat, the most fundamentalist of the major political parties just to get a few seats. Many leaders have left and are contesting as independents, but the NCP as a party has lost its halo. It has been turned into just another fortune seeking bunch of leaders. I It is a big tragedy for Bangladesh youth which has a long tradition of secular students movement.
For India, the government has to wait till the results are announced. If BNP comes to power and Tarique Rahman forms the government, the Narendra Modi government must do everything possible to be closer to this government and expand ties taking utmost caution so that big brother attitude is not reflected. Our PMO has done enough mistakes in creating the present anti-India mood in Bangladesh. At least now, the PMO should let the foreign office to do the post election follow up job. Our foreign secretary VikramMistry is competent enough to do whatever is needed. India will be getting a big chance to mend the fences of India-Bangladesh relations after February 12 elections. New Delhi has to seize it as equal partner. (IPA Service)
