Traversing from Maharashtra trough Uttar Pradesh, the Dalit politics has acquired a new dynamics and character in Bihar. Saffron ecosystem, especially Narendra Modi, intends to exploit this new kinetics for winning the 2025 assembly election and further consolidating his personal mass base and appeal.
With this perception, Modi’s first step has been to marginalize Chief Minister Nitish Kumar in state politics. This task is certainly tough and challenging, the plan has been launched through minimising the importance of Nitish in the functioning of state NDA and particularly its decision-making process. Once Nitish loses his grip over the state NDA, the task to dump him would become easier. It is worth mentioning that in the cabinet reshuffle in Bihar which was carried out some six months back, Modi and Amit Shah literally forced Nitish to fall in line. The reshuffle saw BJP securing 21 out of 36 ministerial positions. Nitish could not dictate his terms.
Modi and Shah have also come to make out that the Mahadalit support base which Nitish has strived to build for his projection as the new face of the Dalit politics, has been gradually shifting away to Congress. Modi in fact helped his rivals inside the NDA, like Upendra Kushwaha and Jitan Ram Manjhi to prepare their own support bases. But they could not come up to Modi’s expectation.
Realising the futility of putting the bet on the worn out horses, Modi has now decided to project Chirag Paswan as the new Dalit face. This nevertheless is more than an act of conceding the fact that BJP does not have a prominent Dalit face: His action underscores the fact that RSS has miserably failed to win over the Dalits and make them believe that they are Hindus. It is worth mentioning that it was at the initiative of the saffron ecosystem, especially Narendra Modi, Chirag has transformed himself as Hindutva Icon from Dalit leader. He had not invited a single Muslim leader, friends of his father Ram Vilas Paswan, a Dalit stalwart, at his Iftar party
Now the same Chirag, who once identified himself as the “Modijika Hanuman”, is contemplating projecting himself as the Dalit leader. This has become necessary in view of Dalits switching their allegiance to Congress by responding to Rahul Gandhi’s call. Modi intends to project him as the Dalit leader who is acceptable to EBC, Dalits and Tribals.
Chirag has expressed his desire to leave Central ministry. But the sources maintain that it was once again the wishes of Modi made him act. He has decided to contest the Bihar assembly elections from a general seat and also to field LJP candidates on all the 243 seats. This is his shrewd move. While this would send the message that he was not acting under dictates from Modi and was the only Dalit leader in Bihar.
An impression is also being created that he nurses ambition to shift from national to state politics, for becoming the chief minister. But this is not the truth. It is again a ploy to win over the Dalits and mahadalits and check their migration to Congress. The dalit population in Bihar has been around 26 per cent of the states’ total population. Even if half of the EBC, Mahadalit population rallies behind Congress, Modi cannot aspire NDA to win the assembly election.
Nitish has not been looking at the development as a passive spectator. Only a month back Nitish appointed Chirag’s brother-in-law and MP Arun Bharti as the chairman of a state PSU. This is being viewed as a major setback to Chirag. This has happened coinciding with Chirag’s call: “I do not see myself in National politics for long. The only reason I came into politics was Bihar and Biharis. My vision has always been ‘Bihar first, Bihari first’, and I always want Bihar to prosper and be at par with other developed states.”
As Modi and Amit Shah do not intend openly to antagonize Nitish, they have announced that the upcoming Bihar elections will be fought under the leadership of Nitish Kumar. This they have done despite being aware that Nitish’s popularity has been on decline and people no more like him. The recent substantial increase in the number of killings and rapes of Dalit girls has further alienated and infuriated the Dalits.
A section of the BJP leaders and also some Dalit leaders project Chirag as the tallest Dalit face in the state. It is said that Paswan who constitute around 6 per cent population are with Chirag. Undeniably Chirag is a dalit leader but a vast number of Dalits and SCs do not accept him as their leader as he never tried to identify himself with them. His mannerisms and life style do not support his claim of being a Dalit leader.
With Modi making a first move, the leaders of INDIA bloc have also embarked on the path to marginalise BJP and ensure that Dalit support base is further expanded and consolidated. The first major move has been initiated by the CPI(ML) Liberation by announcing its decision to contest 45 seats. Riding on its performance in 2020, winning 12 out of the 19 seats it contested, the party’s general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya told IPA “we are looking to expand the support base of the party and bring back our cadres in active politics.” Though he is not rigid in his approach, he nonetheless feels that party will perform better in the ensuing election as “we have been working on the ground, representing the aspirations and demands of the people of the state.”
“Last time, we contested 19 seats and won 12. The Congress, by contrast, got 70 and got 19. So, this is a general perception that wherever CPIML contests, that actually improves the performance of the entire coalition in that area… Our strike rate is high. In that area, where we are, you’ll find that the Congress, RJD have also done better. So, this is the general perception, I guess, that CPIML should get more seats this time,” said Bhattacharya.
In recent years the party has succeeded in rejuvenating its Dalit support base and bring in more SCs, EBC and adivasis into its fold from other parties. It has also succeeded in launching movement across the state against the feudal and upper caste repressions on Dalits and mahadalits. CPI(ML) has strong concentration in south and central Bihar. Bhattacharya said the party aims to broaden its reach across Bihar;
“We are prepared but maybe there are some 45-odd seats where we think that we can even contest. We would like to spread the net wide. Maybe south Bihar and even in north Bihar. For example, Mithila region, last time we didn’t contest a single seat in Darbhanga and Madhubani. We only contested two seats in Samastipur. Even in, let’s say, Champaran, we contested only one seat. I think we need more seats there. May not be that much in East Bihar”.
Congress too has succeeded in making a face make over. So far the party was dependent on the upper caste and feudal lords for its electoral success. But this time it has shifted its focus on the Dalits, EBCs and mahadalits. Return of the Vikassheel Insaan Party (VIP) to the INDIA bloc will further strengthen the Dalit support base of the INDIA bloc. Bhattacharya however outlined; “It should be a decisive kind of mandate… There will be some kind of a definitely common campaign and common programme… The agenda for Bihar elections is quite given. Chief Minister Nitish Kumar had talked about development, good governance. But whatever he said, I think now the ground reality is just the opposite. Acute poverty, massive unemployment, massive out-migration, the education and the healthcare system is in a complete mess.”
Emergence of CPI(ML) and Congress as a major contenders may be perceived in the political circle as sidelining of RJD. But it is just opposite. In the past the Dalits, SCs, EBCs were not too willing to be identified with then RJD, as they have a sustained antagonistic relation with the Jadavs, the main support base of RJD. But the latest change of strategy and Congress and CPI(ML) emerging as the voice of these forces, the dalits are assured of a politically correct power sharing and distribution. RJD under Tejashvi has even been presenting itself as a transformed political organisation. Tejashwi’s most effective strategy has been his outreach to the Koeri-Kurmi voter base, a move that directly challenges both Nitish and the BJP’s ambitions. (IPA Service)
