It would be presumptuous to construe that the results of the bye-elections to the four assembly seats in Bihar do not reflect the changing economic and social relations at the ground level and point to the emergence of new political equation. In the just concluded Lok Sabha elections, the voters of all the four assembly segments had voted for INDIA bloc. But they shifted their allegiance this time. Certainly this change of perception in choosing the political priorities has wider implication.
At least three reasons appear to have redrawn the electoral-political compulsions and priorities. The feudal and rightist forces apprehensive of the emergence and consolidation of the poor and secular forces in the wake of the Lok Sabha closed their ranks to stop forces under INDIA bloc. A legislator having close connect with the state machinery would have proved to be more detrimental to their class interest.
Secondly, and there is no denying the fact the creamy layer of the OBC, which include rich Yadavs, Koiris, Kurmis were not eager to sacrifice their economic interest by voting for INDIA bloc candidates, only for the sake of being identified as the backwards castes in anticipation for future gains. They want instant benefit. Even the weaker section of OBC along with EBC and Dalits were also split.
One development ought to be taken seriously; whether socio-political combination weaved around RJD of Lalu Yadav is getting fragile and whether Lalu Yadav has been losing his political and economic relevance. The OBC and Muslims are unable to repose their trust in Tejashvi Yadav, the heir apparent to Lalu. Though initially when Tejashvi made his entry in the politics, he was accorded warm reception and was visualised the new face of Bihar politics. But he appears to have lost their appeal during the Lok Sabha election as the RJD, and also the INDIA bloc could not perform as expected by the people of the state. Both Lalu and Tejashvi were blamed for poor show of the INDIA bloc as they failed to choose the right candidates. It was alleged that they don’t have their ears to the ground.
The NDA winning all the four seats is also attributed to the OBC, section of EBC and even a portion of well off Dalits aggressively projecting Nitish Kumar as their undisputed leader. It is an open secret that for some time, some upper caste politicians belonging to BJP, and even Congress had started saying that Nitish is suffering with some mental problem. This was an affront to the OBCs and others. The pattern of voting underlines that in a retaliatory manner they rallied behind Nitish, obliquely NDA, to send the message that Nitish was their leader. They may not will repeat this gesture in the next assembly election, but it is also certain that do not intend to let him down who has done enough for them during his long stay in power.
The NDA swept by-elections in four assembly constituencies on Saturday. The coalition not only retained Imamganj but also wrested Tarari, Ramgarh, and Belaganj from the opposition INDIA bloc. The INDIA bloc suffered its biggest blow in Belaganj, a seat the RJD had dominated since its inception in the 1990s. Manorama Devi of the Janata Dal (United), led by chief minister Nitish Kumar, defeated RJD’s Vishwanath Kumar Singh by over 21,000 votes. The seat was previously held by Singh’s father, Surendra Prasad Yadav, who vacated it after being elected to the Lok Sabha. The RJD, once confident in its stronghold, now faces questions about internal challenges and vote splitting among its core Muslim support base.
All the four seats are part of the Lok Sabha seats which are represented by the INDIA bloc candidates. Surprisingly the voters in these constituencies even did not listen to the appeals of their Lok Sabha members. In Ramgarh, Ajit Singh of the RJD, son of state party president Jagadanand Singh, finished a distant third. BJP’s Ashok Kumar Singh, a former MLA, emerged victorious, followed by BSP’s Satish Kumar Singh Yadav.
Tarari also proved to be a turning point, with BJP debutant Vishal Prashant defeating CPI(ML)’s Raju Yadav by over 10,000 votes. The win underscored the BJP’s growing influence in the region, traditionally held by the Left. Imamganj seat was won by NDA candidate Deepa Kumari daughter of the Hindustani Awam Morcha leader Jitan Ram Manjhi.
It is worth mentioning that just ahead of the bypolls, the Communist Party of India (ML) had organised statewide padayatra ‘Badlo Bihar Nyay Yatra’ to strengthen the party base in Bihar and energise its workers ahead of bypolls. It focused on seven key issues. These include the Rs 2 lakh financial assistance promised to the people; five decimal housing land and permanent houses to the poor; end of atrocities against Dalits, poor, women and minorities; a stay on the ongoing land survey, end the compulsion to install smart meters, halving electricity rates and 200 units of free electricity to the poor; immediate relief for flood victims. The party has also demanded Rs 50,000 per acre as compensation to farmers whose crops were damaged and minimum wages for around 10 lakh scheme workers. But these failed to move the voters to rally behind INDIA.
Nevertheless Tejashvi is confident of retrieving the lost ground and affirmed that the Mahagathbandhan will win the assembly election of 2025 and form the next government in the state. He reiterated “We ensure that at any cost, an NDA government will not be formed in Bihar”. CPI(ML) general secretary Dipankar Bhattacharya however strongly holds the view that the INDIA bloc will have to work in a more cohesive manner and focus on issues confronting the common people.
There is imperative need for better coordination and understanding amongst the constituents. The weak link in the INDIA bloc chain has been the Congress. Its leaders behave in an erratic manner and do not bother to have better coordination with other constituents. Yet another factor that has been harming the INDIA bloc has been class oriented perception of the leaders. Most of the Congress leaders do not have any worthwhile connect with the local people. For them INDIA bloc is a simple mechanism to win election. For them Rahul Gandhi’s narrative is an alien concept.
True enough, most of them even do not endorse and support Rahul’s political line. Some senior leaders however maintain that this is a major factor that the state leadership has failed to motivate the rank and file. They still consider the lower level workers as serfs and not as comrades. Though left in Bihar is a part of the INDIA, but the fact is still pariah for the Congress leaders. In all the four seats from where NDA candidates won, the Congress goof nice support base but they could not transfer it to the RJD or CPI(ML) candidates. (IPA Service)
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