By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Focus of the West Bengal assembly election has now shifted to Bhabanipur, the home constituency of the Chief Minister and TMC Supremo Mamata Banerjee who is contesting from there. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Minister of Home Amit Shah have been telling her “good bye” from their election rallies, though it is not still certain that Mamata Banerjee will lose election either in her own constituency, or in the state.
Bhabanipur will write the fate of Mamata, on April 29 when 142 constituencies of the state will go to poll in the second phase. West Bengal has entered the second phase of election campaign after the election campaign for the first phase ended in the evening of April 21 for 152 constituencies going to poll on April 23. Election campaign for the second phase of election is now nearing its peak.
Bhabanipur has come into limelight not only because CM Mamata is contesting from here, but, because of her allegation that she was denied permission for one of her campaign events by the returning officer of Bhabanipur.
A special feature of this election in West Bengal is that the administration of the state has been taken over by the Election Commission of India, and officers are alleged to deny permission of election campaign events of non-BJP opposition parties. Mamata had cried foul in this regard, when her flight was delayed to prevent her to participate in her election rally. Even JMM leader and CM of Jharkhand Hemant Soren’s flight was denied landing permission to address the party rally. Now Congress leaser Rahul Gandhi was denied permission for his rally which had to be cancelled, though Congress alleged Mamata for denying permission.
Mamata, apart from denial of permission of her election campaign event even in her own constituency, has even accused the BJP and the ECI of conspiring to orchestrate her defeat in Bhabanipur through false voting with the help of central forces. “On the day of the election, mind you, three wards have been chosen – 74, 77, and 63. They will rig the elections in those three using central forces,” she said in an election rally in Barrackpore.
There are 8 wards in this assembly constituency, and rigging allegation in 3 of them, is quite a high number. It should be noted that in the Lok Sabha poll 2024, BJP had lead in 74 Alipore, and 63 parts of Chowringhee, Taltala, Park Street, Shakespeare Sarani, the Maidan, and Hastings areas. In Ward number 77 parts of Kidderpore, TMC had a lead.
In the rest 5 Wards, TMC had led on Wards 73, and 82. BJP was able to establish its lead in the Wards 70, 71, and 72. All these means that in BJP had leads in as many as 5 Wards, and TMC had leads in 3 wards. It is here, the election in Bhabanipur has turned into a very close contest between the TMC and the BJP.
Mamata had contested Bhabanipur bypoll in 2021, and won the seat by a huge margin of 58,832 votes and bagged about 72 per cent of votes. Nevertheless, in Lok Sabha Election 2024, TMCs lead in this assembly segment was only 8,297 votes. There were 260 booths in this constituency. In 149 seats BJP had led, and TMC had lead in only 111 booths.
Now coming to the SIR in Bhabanipur, where according to the latest final figure as on April 8 frozen list of voters, 3,875 electors were deleted after adjudication of 14,113 names. On December 16, there were 2,06,925 electors, with about 44,000 names removed. It shows that TMC and Mamata Banerjee has done great work in protecting her support base. The final electoral supplementary list will be published on April 27 for this constituency, and it is not known how many people will ultimately find their names in voter list.
In Bhabanipur, Muslim minority voters are estimated at only 24 per cent according to the final electoral list published on February 28. Bengali Hindu voters are 42 per cent, non-Bengal Hindu voters are 34 per cent. This configuration of voters has kept both the Mamata and the BJP at tenterhooks.
Though BJP was able to reduce the margin of lead of TMC in this assembly segment in Lok Sabha election 2014, it can’t be sure to win only through deletion of the names of voters supposed to be supporter of TMC. It is chiefly because, TMC has been successful in preventing large scale deletion of its support base which can’t offset their lead in the Bhabanipur constituency.
Mamata Banerjee has accused the BJP not only of hatching conspiracy of rigging in her won constituency, but in the entire state. She has alleged that BJP has brought 2 lakh outsiders, 200 choppers, and 100 flights to grab West Bengal. In the Election rally of East Midnapore, she has also alleged, “People of UP and Bihar might come here and vote. We understand these tricks. We will fight with all our might. We are not like other parties. Those who think that they will rig the elections must realise that we too will field our people. We too will watch everything closely.”
TMC has been campaigning door-to-door in Bhabanipur, a constituency that was won by the party in 2011 by bagging 64.7 per cent of votes as against BJP’s 27.98 per cent, in 2016 by bagging 47.67 per cent of votes as against 29.26 per cent, and in 2021 by gaining 57.71 per cent of votes as against 35.16 per cent.
Contest on the seat is between Mamata Banerjee and BJP’s Suvendu Adhikari. The other minor contestants are CPI(M)’s Shrijeeb Biswas, INC’s Pradeep Prasad, and JUP’s Punam Begum. Mamata is the resident of the constituency and has an edge against the “outsider” Suvendu and the BJP. It is an advantage Mamata, who still suspects rigging by BJP. (IPA Service)
