By Tirthankar Mitra
There is no denying the fact Balochistan is an integral part of Pakistan. Yet numbers given by Pakistan’s Director General of Inter Service Public Relations (DGISPR) on terrorists believed to be killed, thousands of Baloch have been eliminated in extra-judicial operations by Pakistan.
Peaceful protestors seeking answers to random killings and arrests have been thrown into jails. Pakistan is left red faced after criticism in international forums including United Nations headquarters at Geneva and New York.
Pak army chief Asim Munir put up a brave face and mouthed blusters against Baluch dissenters and did not even stop short of using artillery and air power against those citizens of his own country in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa who are protesting against the present dispensation. These acts are pointers to twin facts.
One, those living in these areas are considered enemies and two, the state is losing control in these regions. Small wonder, use of immense fire power is needed to regain control.
There are many parts in Balochistan and KP where the Pakistan army fears to tread or moves in large numbers. More than 600 civilians and almost 1000 plus security personnel have been killed in terrorist related incidents this year, according to South Asia Terrorism Portal.
Adding to this is civil disobedience in Pakistan Occupied Jammu and Kashmir (POJK). The region is locked down by the agitation. POJK has all communication cut. Brutality against peaceful protestors is on the rise.
Additional security forces have been inducted as if powers that be are aware that it is a matter of time when peaceful protests can transform into an armed resistance. Everyday happenings continue to embarrass the army who call shots in Pakistan.
Hence the bravado against India on holding the Indus Water Treaty (IWT) in abeyance. Munir has thundered in a corps commanders meeting that “Pakistan will take all necessary measures” to secure its rightful share of water.
Fact remains that till now it has been just words. Reserve formations meant to operate against India have been moved to the Western provinces of Pakistan to manage the increasing waves of resentment.
External affairs of Pakistan cannot be described to be sunny and bright. It is a signatory to the Mecca pact and Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) with the Saudis, both orchestrated by Munir.
Riyadh, the Saudi Arabian capital which is the core base of the country’s leadership and governance is under increasing attack from Houthis from northern Yemen. Aligned to Iran which is engaged in hostilities with US, an ally of Saudi Arabia, these attackers are targetting the Gulf nation’s infrastructure and blockading shipping lanes to restrict Saudi export routes and pressure it.
The US has refused to act. Israel has promised support in exchange for Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords, which it hesitates to do. Brokered by US, the Abraham Accords are a series of agreements for normalisation of relations between Israel and Arab and Muslim-majority countries on security, economic and diplomatic relations. Sudan has signed a general declaration while United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco have normalised ties.
Cock-a-hoop at the time of signing SDMA and Mecca pact, Pakistan is now cornered. Having hoped that the ongoing war in the Middle East will end soon it has signed the pacts stating “an attack on one, is an attack on all’.
Pakistan, not quite in keeping with its words cannot attack on this, as that would draw in Iran, a neighbour. It could suck Pakistan into the conflict. It is now claiming that the pacts are defensive. It would also provide whatever support the Saudis need.
A land conflict with Yemen is the last thing Pakistan seeks. The Houthis have already warned of devastating attacks on Karachi, the largest city of Pakistan if Pakistan attack them. But a reluctant Pakistan may have to go to war. A word from Riyadh would certainly make it run as Saudi Arabia has propped up its economy with a loan of USD 8 billion.
The internal scenario of Pakistan does not permit it to enter into a conflict with the Houthis. For it cannot withdraw its forces having tense borders with India and Afghanistan. Pakistani economy is on life support. Inflation is soaring, oil is being rationed while unemployment is at an unprecedented level. Losing soldiers in a conflict not on Pakistani soil could be the last straw on the populace. It could lead to an uprising.
The powers that be in Pakistan is between a rock and a hard place. It has to act in one way or the other by keeping Riyadh happy and deciding whether to manage its internal or external front first. (IPA Service)
