By P. Sreekumaran
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: As the sun sets on 2025, a close look at the prospects of the principal political fronts in Kerala is in order.
The Left Democratic Front (LDF) is certainly down, but not out. Its ‘unexpected’ defeat is not an unmitigated disaster its political rivals are cracking it to be. As for the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), it is on cloud nine. But the portents for the crucial assembly elections are anything but rosy. The front’s impressive victory has been marred by the unseemly spat for the spoils of power. The BJP-headed National Democratic Alliance (NDA)’s performance has fallen far short of its expectations. That then is the current reality on the ground.
First, the LDF. True, the Front has been shaken by the loss in the local bodies elections. But it is not the end of its hopes for a third consecutive term in power in the State. There are a few hurdles the Front has to cross before it can ensure a third term.
First and foremost, the LDF must stop being overconfident. Its performance is not as bad as is being made out by the political pundits. The correctives must be applied forthwith as the crucial assembly poll is less than five months away. The task is daunting, but not impossible to accomplish.
The LDF can draw comfort from a few facts. First, its vote-share in the local bodies poll has gone up by more than 19 lakh from what it was in the 2024 Lok Sabha poll. Even in Kottayam district, its Achilles Heel, the front managed to record a one-lakh-rise in its votes. In Thiruvananthapuram, where it lost the battle for the Corporation to the BJP, it polled more votes than the BJP, which lost several seats in the ‘Ayyappa heartland’, including Pandalam municipality to the LDF. The Front also won another BJP stronghold Kodungallur municipality by a comfortable margin. Again, the difference between the LDF and the UDF is only 80 lakh votes. Out of this, the votes UDF polled in Malappuram district alone is over 55 lakh. Ernakulam, another UDF bastion, accounted for close to 18 lakh votes. As a political observer put, the LDF can regain lost ground if its cadres work hard for just one week!
But there have been a few developments which must cause grave concern to the front. Its vote-share in urban areas has come down. That is the area which must receive the front’s undivided attention. Again, the loss of both Thiruvananthapuram and Kollam Corporations cannot be explained away easily. The LDF must bend its full energy to the task of regaining ground there.
One of the most important factors which caused the LDF’s defeat – to some pundits the most important one – was the alienation of Muslim votes thanks to the communally-charged speeches of Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana Yogam chief (SNDP) Vellappally Natesan. The trust of the estranged Muslim community has to be won back. Natesan must be told to curb his anti-Muslim utterances. The CPI is clearly unhappy about the continued defence of Natesan by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. The sooner Vellappally is cut to size the better.
It is equally important to change the prevailing perception that by signing the PM SHRI, the LDF has alienated the Minorities who felt that that act dented the LDF’s credentials as an uncompromising opponent of the BJP-RSS combine. This is of utmost importance for the front to better its show in the assembly poll.
As for the victory-starved UDF, the Front is riding a wave of confidence following the win in the local bodies poll. The UDF thinks the victory will be repeated in the assembly elections, too. But there are many imponderables.
What can upset the UDF calculations is the bitter bickering witnessed for the control of local bodies. The battle for Kochi and Thrissur corporations saw faction feud at its worst. The much-talked about deal with the BJP in Thiruvananthapuram Corporation polls has also tarnished the Congress’s image. Figures prove the allegation that BJP won courtesy Congress in many wards. In short, Congress helped the BJP to unseat the LDF.
The ferocity of factional feud in the Congress can be gauged from the fact that on the very day the results were announced, KPCC president Sunny Joseph and the Leader of the Opposition(LOP) V D Satheesan held separate press conferences to celebrate the victory.
Another factor which can mar the Congress prospects is the bulldozing of over 250 houses of poor Muslims and Dalits in Karnataka. The Karnataka Government’s insensitivity has been condemned by one and all. It was the Kerala Chief Minister who fired the first salvo by condemning it and sending a CPI(M) delegation to visit the affected area to assure the poor victims of all possible help. It was only after Pinarayi’s intervention that the Siddaramaiah Government shed its inertia. But it is saying that the victims will be rehabilitated only if they pay at least Rs five lakh for a house!!
Unless the Congress ends the intra-party rivalry forthwith, its hopes of wresting power from LDF will remain a pipedream. That is for sure.
Its plan to cash in on The Sabarimala gold theft case has also boomeranged badly. The Congress tried to put the LDF on the backfoot by releasing a photo showing the Chief Minister and the main accused in the case, Potty, together. But it has since been proved that the photo was a forged one – the handiwork of a Congress leader himself. Pinarayi played a political masterstroke by seeking an explanation from the Congress on Potty meeting Sonia Gandhi not once but twice at 10 Janpath. The photo showing Potty handing over gifts to Sonia – two party MPs Anto Antony and Adoor Prakash are also there in the photo – has put the Congress in a tight spot. The party has not been able to explain the easy access the accused managed to have to 10 Janpath, one of the most heavily guarded houses where even senior Congress leaders find it hard to gain access. Needless to say, the LDF will weaponise this in the assembly polls. In other words, the Congress has scored a self-goal by highlighting the CPI(M)’s ‘involvement in the temple theft case.
The BJP’s position is anything but satisfactory. The party had hoped to poll 25 per cent of the total votes polled but managed to poll a measly 14 per cent – far below its expectations. But for the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation win, the BJP has nothing to be enthusiastic about. It lost power in Pandalam municipality in the Ayyappa heartland and Kodungallur, its pocketborough. True it did reasonably well in Kozhikode and Kollam. But the ground reality shows that the BJP’s dreams of capturing Kerala are nowhere near realization.
At the end of the day, it can be said with certainty that if the LDF corrects its mistakes and learns the lessons from the defeat in local bodies, it still can hope to retain power for a third term. But it is not going to be an easy task. The LDF will have to literally put its shoulder to the wheel to pull it off. (IPA Service)
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