NEW DELHI: India’s imports of Russian crude oil in June are expected to touch a two-year high of 2.13 million barrels per day, supported by significant pricing advantages, according to provisional data from global real-time data and analytics provider Kpler.
On a monthly basis too, Russian oil supplies to the country are projected to grow by 14.7%. This is followed by imports from Iraq, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the US.
While imports from Iraq reduced to 31% to 746,148 barrels per day (bpd) this month so far, volumes from Saudi Arabia declined by 9.5% to 525,751 bpd. Supplies from UAE, however, increased by 18% to 542,804 bpd. The United States remained India’s fifth-largest supplier at 314,929 bpd, up 19% from the previous month, highlighting ongoing diversification efforts and price-driven arbitrage.
“Russia offers crude at consistent discounts compared to global benchmarks like Brent and Dubai, and even more so against Middle Eastern grades on a landed-cost basis. This economic edge, combined with operational ease and geopolitical leeway, has made Russian barrels an attractive proposition for Indian refiners,” said Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst, refining & modeling at Kpler.
A key driver of Russian supplies has been the Urals grade, which, though not deeply discounted, averaged around $50 per barrel FOB (Free On Board) in May, well below the $60/bbl price cap imposed by Western allies. In May, the country imported 1.85 million barrels per day of Russian oil.
Ritolia highlighted that these favorable economics have not only improved refinery gross margins but also drawn in substantial shipping capacity; over 20 tankers previously tied to non-sanctioned trades were repurposed for Urals delivery, boosting export flows.
Russia’s position at the top reflects India’s continued reliance on discounted barrels and its ability to deliver across geographies. Urals dominates the intake, accounting for roughly 75% of Russian volumes, followed by CPC and ESPO.
“Despite ongoing sanctions, lax enforcement has allowed steady trade to continue. Looking forward, Russian crude is expected to maintain a 35-40% share in India’s crude mix, assuming margins stay healthy, FOB pricing remains competitive, and sanctions remain loosely applied,” Ritolia had said.
Even as Russia continues to remain the top supplier of crude to India, the country is seen diversifying its import basket at a time when geopolitical tensions are on the rise.
Meanwhile, US barrels have also gained momentum, with India on track to import over 1 million bpd from the US across April–June 2025, Kpler notes.
Kpler highlighted that India will continue to import from the US due to various factors in play, apart from refining economics, however, volumes will be limited and in check.
The rising geopolitical tensions particularly in the Middle East has time and again put global oil markets under pressure. While India sources almost 40% of its crude oil from the Middle East, any disruption in the trade regions could affect its supplies. However, growing diversification of crude sourcing primarily from Russia, West Africa, Brazil, and the US is said to help the country mitigate this risk and manage the fallout, according to analysts.
Source: The Financial Express
