By Tirthankar Mitra
Bihar seems to have a penchant for being in the news be it owing to JP’s call of total revolution or the Bhagalpur blindings or the fodder scam. The state finds itself in the news again as a new leader whose political party is part of the NDA coalition has thrown his hat in the ring for the chief minister’s post , just five months before the crucial elections.
A claimant to crown is Chirag Paswan who floated Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) in 2021 after the passing of his father, Ram Vilas Paswan. Chirag who split the party is Union minister for food processing in the Cabinet of Prime Minister Narendra Modi who kicked off the poll campaign for NDA in Bihar on May 29 and May 30 this year..
Chirag’s political ambition will upset the apple cart of sitting chief minister, Nitish Kumar. Kumar’s winning touch seems to be fading since the last election though he was the key leader whose alliance with BJP is being discussed in BJP circles and the state saffron leaders are exploring other possibilities to head the NDS government if the alliance wins in October/November polls.
Extreme Backward Castes (Maha Dalit) and Pasmanda Muslims (backward Muslims) were the twin props which helped Kumar twice to sail to victory. But Kumar-led JD(U) won only in 43 seats in 2020 elections which saw BJP emerging numerically superior with 74 seats
The damage, incidentally was wrought by Paswan’s outfit in 40 seats. In 20-odd seats Paswan’s party had more votes in its bag than the margin of defeat of JD(U) nominees thereby sending a loud and clear message that the ground below Kumar’s feet was no longer what it used to be earlier.
The LJP(RV) contesting 2024 Lok Sabha elections emerged victorious in 5 seats. One is in the dark whether Prime Minister Modi is aware about the political ambition of Chirag, one of his Cabinet colleagues.
But being the canny politician that Modi is, he must have read between the lines when LJP (RV) resolved that it’s leader will take up “responsibility of the future”. Without quite spelling it out, this is an expression of Chirag’s chief ministerial ambitions.
It hardly matters that he did not state his intent in so many words. Chirag seems to be perfectly poised to replace chief minister Nitish Kumar though both of them belong to NDA. The young Paswan has bettered his father’s electoral record when the latter contested the Bihar polls on his own. He bagged only one seat.
One must not lose sight of the fact that if PM Modi skipped an all-party meeting two days after the Pahalgam attack on April 22 to address the Madhubani rally. It indicates the importance of Bihar polls in his scheme of things but he is yet to express his mind on the division of seats.
The fact remains that Chirag wants to contest a “general’ seat. It is targeted to make him come out and travel beyond the image of a Dalit leader. Chirag seeking a “general” seat also sends a message. The JD(U) is weakening and the LJP(RV) chief has upped his ante to replace Nitish Kumar. Chirag’s party may not have won in several seats in the previous elections. But he is loath to let go his claim on them.
It is beside the point that the LJP(RV) leader heads a small party. But it deals in a politics which is centred on Bihar and the coming election is a state level electoral battle where national issues are likely to take a backseat even though parties like BJP with its nationwide organisational network and administrative control will be in the fray.
The task and target before Chirag Paswan and the political outfit he heads is not to lose relevance. Being a Bihar-centric party and given its previous electoral record, the task seems to be cut out for him.
The previous Bihar election witnessed an erosion of JD(U) support base. But the BJP-led NDA is unlikely to dispense with Kumar before election. Yet the possibility of the NDA seeking another partner whose roots touch the soil of Bihar cannot be ruled out. This is all the more so as Kumar is not in the best of health.
Here is where Chirag Paswan comes in as LJP(RV) is already a member of NDA coalition. The LJP(RV) chief is emerging as a Dalit leader and Scheduled Caste comprise a significant section of Bihar populace and voters.
But Chirag has to contend with the BJP and of course the RSS which will not give up the chief ministerial chair easily. Nor is Nitish Kumar likely to give up what he has retained despite lagging behind in the number game of the legislators on an earlier occasion. (IPA Service)
