By Girish Linganna
In 2024, the global space launch landscape is expected to see increased activity from both public and private sectors in countries like China, India, and Japan, following a year dominated by SpaceX.
Chinese startup LandSpace Technology is set to introduce reusable rockets by 2025, following a strategy similar to SpaceX. Meanwhile, India is preparing for a sequence of flight tests leading to a manned space mission, also targeted for 2025.
Japan is striving to become the fifth country to successfully land a spacecraft on the Moon this month. This follows India’s achievement with Chandrayaan-3, which landed on the lunar surface on August 23, 2023. India has reportedly returned the propulsion module used for Chandrayaan-3 to Earth’s orbit, potentially setting the stage for a future mission to bring back lunar samples.
Japan’s involvement in space exploration dates back to 1970 when it became the fourth nation to launch a satellite into orbit, following the Soviet Union, the United States, and France. In recent times, China and India have emerged as significant players in space exploration. China announced its goal to send astronauts to the Moon by 2030. Meanwhile, India has ambitious plans for establishing a space station by 2035 and aims to send its first astronaut to the Moon by 2040.
Shogo Yakame, a business consultant at Nomura Research Institute, expressed to the Financial Times his belief that India is likely to become a more formidable competitor in space to Japan than China. He pointed out the dynamic nature of India’s commercial space sector as the basis for his opinion.
Japan is set to demonstrate its advanced space technology with a groundbreaking lunar mission scheduled for January 20. The mission involves the Smart Lander for Investigating the Moon (SLIM), which aims to achieve the world’s first “pinpoint” lunar landing. SLIM is expected to land within 100 meters of a designated target, located near the Shioli Crater by the Sea of Nectar, just south of the Moon’s equator.
To achieve a precise lunar landing, Japan’s SLIM spacecraft employs a combination of a radar altimeter and a vision-based navigation system. This system identifies crater patterns and compares them with existing map data in real-time, aiding in obstacle avoidance and locating a smooth landing area. The 2.4-meter lander is uniquely designed to fall onto its side if it lands on a slope, a feature intended to stabilize its position upon touchdown.
The precision landing ability of Japan’s SLIM and the surface data it gathers will play a crucial role in future lunar missions. This includes a collaborative mission between India and Japan in 2025, aimed at exploring water resources in the Moon’s polar regions. Additionally, Toyota Motor and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are developing a pressurized rover for astronaut use on the lunar surface. The development of this rover is set to begin in 2024, with a planned launch in 2029.
The escalating rivalry in the space sector is underscored by SpaceX’s impressive achievement of launching nearly 100 rockets in 2023, propelling commercial space endeavours to unprecedented levels. On November 2, CEO Elon Musk announced on platform X that Starlink, the company’s satellite phone service, had reached cash flow break-even. This service, relying on a network of over 5,500 satellites, offers global broadband connectivity. It garnered widespread attention for its role in assisting Ukrainian forces during the conflict with Russia.
Yakame remarked on the once-unthinkable feasibility of a service like Starlink, highlighting the immense challenges and costs associated with constructing, launching, operating, and maintaining a large number of satellites, as well as the complexity of establishing connections with rapidly orbiting satellites in low Earth orbit. He mentioned the attempt by Iridium, a company based in the United States, to offer a comparable service in the 1990s, which ultimately did not succeed.
Space activities have evolved through various phases, beginning with the creation of launch vehicles, followed by the deployment and use of satellites, and then the exploitation of space environments, for instance in space stations. Seiji Izumisawa, CEO of Mitsubishi Heavy, conveyed to the Financial Times , that the forthcoming phase would be centred on commercialization.
On February 15, Japan is set to launch the H3, its next-generation rocket, aspiring to rival SpaceX’s Falcon 9. This launch comes after an initial attempt on March 7 was unsuccessful due to an electronics problem. Mitsubishi Heavy, the company behind the H3, aims for the rocket to be competitive with the Falcon 9 in cost, even if not in launch frequency, and plans to achieve up to six launches annually.
Since Russia’s Soyuz rocket became unavailable due to the country’s invasion of Ukraine, businesses seeking satellite launches have increasingly turned to SpaceX as their preferred provider.
In 2023, the United States led in space launches with a total of 103, while China followed with 61, and Russia with 18, as per Space-Track.org data, a satellite data platform run by the US Department of Defense. Atsushi Murakami, president of Satellite Business Network, a consultancy firm, noted that the United States and China are prevailing forces in the space sector and are further extending their lead, raising the question of whether Japan can make a significant entry into this competitive arena.
Japan, in contrast to countries like the US, India, or China, lacks the financial capacity to independently execute large-scale space missions. Therefore, its primary strategy is to focus on technology development and become a crucial partner in the space sector.
In the realm of space launches, a key emphasis is on reusability, a concept spearheaded by SpaceX. The company achieved a milestone by successfully landing a rocket booster post-launch in 2015, and later, in 2017, it launched a reused booster. Currently, SpaceX is working on the large-scale Starship cruise ship, which is intended for human missions to the Moon and Mars. The Starship is designed to be refuelled and relaunched after returning from space.
SpaceX continues to be the sole commercial company with reusable rockets in operation. However, China’s LandSpace, which successfully completed its initial satellite launch in December, has announced plans to launch a reusable rocket by 2025.
LandSpace’s rocket, similar to SpaceX’s Starship, will utilize methane as its fuel source. This choice is gaining interest due to the possibility of producing methane-based fuel on Mars using local resources like carbon dioxide and water from ice, which could make return missions from Mars more practical. Additionally, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency and Mitsubishi Heavy are working on a methane-powered rocket, aiming for a potential launch around 2030. (IPA Service)
(The author is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru.)
