By Satyaki Chakraborty
The Latin American politics has entered a decisive phase in 2022 as the various shades of Left have jointly mounted renewed attacks against the pro-right neo liberal policies of the two ruling governments in Colombia and Brazil which are going for Presidential polls in the year. The utter misgovernance in these two countries has led to massive protests and demonstrations in the recent months and these are going to have impact in favour of the left wing presidential candidates in these two poll bound countries who are already ahead in the latest opinion polls.
For the Latin American Left, 2021 was the year of turnaround for the Left. Out of the presidential elections in five countries, in four countries- Peru Honduras, Chile and Nicaragua, the Left won and only in Ecuador, the left candidate got defeated by the far right candidate belying all expectations of the progressives. There was a last minute switchover by the centrists to the right and that led to the defeat of the highly respected Left nominee.
Buoyed with the success in the electoral battle for presidency in 2021, the Latin American Left has intensified its campaign in all the countries where it is ruling, in favour of a pro-people programme for reducing poverty and inequality despite big opposition from the defeated right who are still very powerful in new national assemblies and in some cases have the constitutional power to block progressive reforms. The newly elected Left presidents in Peru and Chile are facing this big problem of how to go about to fulfil election promises with so much opposition from the entrenched establishment.
Latin American political observers are not all that bullish about the final success of the pink governments. As a leading expert Dr. Aparajita Pandey says beginning with politics, every few years the world gets obsessed with either the beginning or the culmination of a new ‘pink’ tide in Latin America. The Pink in the Pink Tide is an acceptable shade of the originally ‘red’ left in the proverbial American backyard. This palatable shade of Pink is emblematic of governments that are often termed as the Left of Centre, focused on socialist fundamentals, social spending, and welfare.
Her view is that while the election results in this cycle almost provide favourable settings for the declaration of a Pink Latin America; they don’t quite hit the mark. The region has often been characterized by its contradictions and this election cycle is not devoid of such wonderful conundrums either. While Honduras, Peru, and most recently Chile have elected Presidents that can be placed on the spectrum towards the left in varying degrees; and Argentina has continued with Fernandez and Bolivia elected another indigenous leader immediately after Evo Morales; they all come with caveats.
The Left leaders contend that the ruling pink leaders have varying views on many issues since they represent a motley coalition groups, but there are two basic issues on which they agree. First firm opposition to the US hegemony and strong position against the neo-liberal economic agenda. The respective official communist parties have their programmes in each country but on the whole, mostly, they are with the ruling pink governments though they persue their own independent programmes. There are issues with the style of functioning of the ruling left governments in Nicaragua and Venezuela. In fact, the ruling presidents of many countries do not favour the way the ruling presidents Danieal Ortega and Nicholas Maduro are dealing with the opposition in their own countries. In Venezuela, the Communist Party has demarcated itself from Maduro’s programmes through the Party is supporting the President against any American intervention.
The most surprising development favourable to the Left is taking place in Colombia. There has been a paradigm shift in the political opinion of the electorate and the Left leaning candidate Petro is far ahead in the recent opinion poll against the far right candidate. Colombia is the country with drug mafias and the cartels control a large portion of the economy.. Petro is a former guerrilla leader and he has popularized his programme for reducing inequality in the Colombian society. He is getting massive response. Now even, the American think tanks are saying that Petro is the sure winner in the coming presidential elections to be held in May this year. If finally, Petro wins, that will be a big leap forward for the Left and massive defeat for the US which for long treated Colombia as a colony.
As regards Brazil, the presidential elections are scheduled for October this year. The former president Lulla is far ahead in the opinion poll. All indications suggest that president Bolsonaro is at the lowest level of his rating. Even his senior party people are disgruntled with him for his dismal performance. Brazil is facing a severe health crisis due to covid and the ruling party’s cavaliar fashion in dealing with such emergency. The Right is divided and the centrists are gradually veering towards Lulla. The protests against Bolsonaro’s ’policies are in full swing. That gives confidence to the Brazilian Left that the change is sure to take place by year end.
Taking the region as a whole, the most notable event across Latin America & the Caribbean (LAC) was undoubtedly the continuing devastation caused by the COVID 19 pandemic. A study by the UN in October estimated the region lost 1.5 million lives and had more than 44 million confirmed cases since February 2020. This accounts for nearly 20 percent of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and about 30 percent of deaths worldwide, over only 8.4 percent of the world’s population. The political and economic effects were severe: governments grappled with angry public reaction to restrictions and blame for non-availability of vaccines, etc. All over the region there was a dilution of governance in favour of quick fix political solution even as protests founded on social and economic demands grew and impacted politics.
Economically the UN expects GDP growth around 6 per cent in 2021 – after a 7 per cent decline in 2020, with wide variations depending on the country – and around 4 per cent in 2022. The outlook is gloomy due to the global scenario of inflation, combined with lower price outlook for most commodities. Rising interest rates will dilute the expansionary policies necessary to combat unemployment and poverty.
All this is complicated by structural factors such as high debt, low savings and productivity. Poverty and insecurity were aggravated by the prevalence of narco-cartels and organised crime gangs profiting from weak security control and human trafficking. There were massive flows of migrants and refugees from Central America, Cuba, Haiti and Venezuela seeking entry into the US. The eastern Caribbean radiates some hope with extensive hydrocarbon discoveries and exploitation in offshore Guyana, Suriname and Barbados.
The outlook in 2022 is challenging for the ruling governments of the Left. The scale of their performance to tackle the covid crisis and the economic programmes, will determine whether the initial popular appeal will be retained. This will have some impact on the coming elections in other countries also. The Left leaderships are aware of their tasks and responsibilities. That way Latin America is the only continent showing bright spots to the Left who are facing downturn in Europe and also in other parts of the globe including India.
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