By Arun Srivastava
Never write off a politician. Yes, media plays a key role in showing the door or refurbishing the image of the politician, but it is the resilience of the politician that defines his role and survival, the political durability. It is a general perception that once sidelined, a politician loses his standing forever But it is always not the case. One classical example had been of Morarji Desai. Once he was shelved by Indira Gandhi, everyone perceived it as the case of final curtain down. But he not only bounced back in 1977, became the prime minister.
Once Nitish Kumar submitted his nomination paper for Rajya Sabha election yesterday, an impression started gathering momentum in the social and political circle that Nitish or Shushusan era has come to an end. This was unfounded, None has imagined that a person who changed sides and colours twice during his twenty years of rule, would surrender so meekly to the diktat of Modi-Shah combine. Though speculation were making round in the circle that due to his ill-health, he would eventually make room, however before parting way he would settle his son Nishant. His supporters are keenly waiting for the auspicious day when Nishant would formally wear the crown.
It would not be worth comprehending that Nitish has been finished by Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combine for ever. An insight into the happenings would unravel a similar pattern, what Donald Trump had done to Modi. In politics no one can be written off is a recurring theme, emphasizing that politicians, parties, and ideologies can experience remarkable comebacks regardless of past failures, electoral defeats, or low approval ratings.
But one thing is certain that JD(U) and BJP would not have the same umbilical relation in future. The element of distrust has taken roots and it would be a difficult proposition to root it out. Façade of maintaining the fraternal relations always exit, but the BJP would use the opportunity to finish and gobble up JD(U). A kicking and enduring JD(U) will always be a major stumbling block for its spread and also a threat to the existence of BJP, though Nitish may not lead the JD(U) from the front. The basic factor is the class and caste relations. Why Nitish continued as chief minister for 20 years, tough he never had majority on his own. Even ultra-rightist RSS-BJP could not dare to abide by his dictates.
The support base of BJP and JD(U) are quite divergent and opposed to each other. While Koiris and Kurmis, the support base of Nitish are the Junker farmers, members of the landed nobility, like German Juncherre who owned large land and wielded significant political, military, and economic power. They controlled the production and used their political influence to secure favourable tariffs and subsidies. In contrast the supporters of the BJP are rich farmers and feudal lords, who strictly believe in perpetuating repression through a structured system of economic exploitation, legal subjugation, and physical coercion, primarily targeting serfs and peasants to secure agricultural labour and maintain elite privilege. It would not be exaggeration to say that the upper caste rich people and feudal lords have been primarily responsible for the present deplorable economic and social condition of Bihar.
Even after aware of the prevailing political and ideological realities, Nitish preferred to have alliance with BJP, as he was sceptical of having any relation with RJD, the political structure imbibing the aspiration of Yadavs and other backwards, who nurse antagonistic relations with Koiris and Kurmis. It is a widely accepted fact that even when an ideology fails to mobilize people in election, it cannot be written off because a large constituency may still uphold it, allowing it to remain relevant in future political, social, or public life. Politics is described as a “chancy, contingent, and unpredictable” field where the “wheel of fortune” can throw people high into the air and later bring them crashing down, or vice versa.
Once the undisputed ‘Big Brother’ of Bihar politics, the JD(U) now finds itself as the junior partner. The central question for Bihar in 2026 is whether the JD(U) can survive without Nitish Kumar. Having realised that if the BJP has to rule Bihar, the party’s leadership decided to finish Nitish. They have activated the party machinery long back to finish him. It was a part of the design that BJP systematically reached out to the EBC and Mahadalit groups that Nitish had cultivated. By elevating local leaders from these communities, the BJP reduced its dependence on the JD(U)’s vote-transfer capability. BJP crowning Samrat Choudhry a Koiri, the deputy chief minister is the part of the design.
Little doubt Nitish has ideologically compromised. He has lost faith in the socialist principles and ideology. On earlier two occasions he had foiled the machinations of Gujarati duo to unseat him by changing side and joining hands with Lalu Yadav, but on March 5, what happened at chief minister’s official residence, 1 Anne Marg, in which Nitish Kumar was whisked away by Amit Shah to Bihar assembly premises to file the nomination papers for the ensuing Rajya Sabha elections, manifests his willingness. Amit Shah could not have dared to stage a coup d’etat without his oblique consent. Nitish did not utter a word and simply accompanied Amit Shah to Assembly house for filing nomination like an obedient boy. He even did not register his protest. Entire drama was enacted according to a well prepared script, circulated in advance.
This has been basically causing consternation in political circle as well as in his JD(U). The entire operation did not take more than 30 minutes. Soon after arriving at Patna airport Amit Shah, who was received by union minister Lalan Singh, senior JD(U) leader and supposedly a close confidant of Nitish, rushed to the residence of BJP national president Nitin Nabin, who is also to file is nomination for Rajya Sabha, and after staying there for nearly five minutes, proceeded to Nitish’s residence. Within minutes of formal greetings Shah taking along Nitish with him left for Bihar assembly to complete the nomination process.
The entire operation looked like reproduction from Shakespearean dramas, “The Winter’s Tale” (Abduction of Perdita) where the infant princess Perdita is taken by Antigonus to be abandoned on a remote shore at the command of Leontes. Nevertheless just ahead of the operation, Nitish had made his intention known through a post on X, to move to the Rajya Sabha. In the message, he said the move fulfilled a long-standing personal aspiration. But his close aides and leaders are not willing to accept the message. Thy feel the message has been posted someone else.
Nevertheless in the message he mentioned, “Since the beginning of my parliamentary career, I have desired to become a member of both houses of the Bihar Legislature and of Parliament. In this regard, I am seeking to become a member of the Rajya Sabha in this election. I sincerely assure you that this relationship with you will continue in the future, and my resolve to work together to build a developed Bihar will remain unwavering. The new government that will be formed will receive my full support and guidance.”
No doubt BJP which has been waiting in the wings to take to centre stage of Bihar politics, would now have his own person as the new chief minister. But one thing is certain that Bihar will witness violent actions, precisely agrarian clashes. The feudal lords and rich peasants will strive to assert their authority. Whoever from BJP becomes the chief minister will not have material impact on the development of the state and its poor people. The ultra-rightist forces will ruin the lives of the Dalits, proletariats and minorities.
The new incumbent would follow the political line of the saffron ecosystem. While Nitish followed and practiced his own set of programmes and policies, which appeared more of the socialist nature though he run the government with the ultra-rightist BJP enjoying the patronage of fascist RSS. The new chief minister would not be under any obligation either to stick to old policies or implement the programmes reinforcing the principles of social justice.
Examples of saffron governance are before us: the best instance being UP, where the upper caste people have let loose a reign of terror and oppression on the poor, Dalits, proletariats and Muslims. Bihar had seen the upper caste, who mostly are the supporters and cadres of the RSS and BJP, repression and brutal torture on the under privileged people. In fact after the November assembly election, Bihar has been witnessing resurgence of upper caste oppression. A number of violent incident taken place. Even political opponents belonging to secular and left parties were implicated in false and fabricated cases by the Bihar police.
One thing is certain that if Nitish had continued to pursue the socialist policies and programmes and had really ameliorated the economic and social lives of the underprivileged, instead pursuing neo-liberal political line and serving the class interest of the rich and neo-rich, he would have been natural modern face of development and empowerment. During his regime Bihar witnessed emergence of a new urban middle class. Bihar witnessed a surge for construction of multi-storied structures. Though it has now become a cliché to condemn Lalu Yadav for forcing Bihar to become a lawless and casteist state from 1990 to 2005, he nevertheless empowered a major section of the poor, OBC and EBC. Nitish tried to identify with the Mahadalits, but substantial move could not be made. He got entrapped in the quagmire of capitalist economy.
One thing which is inevitable to happen is; perception that socialists have betrayed the concept of social justice in Bihar will surface as the new narrative in Indian politics. While Lalu Yadav and Nitish Kumar rose to power on the promise of empowering the marginalized and upholding “Mandal politics” but they failed them. It is indeed intriguing that Nitish who had publicly manifested his hatred for Narendra Modi, for the Gujarat pogrom, finally came to accept him as his leader. (IPA Service)
A Oil Buying Waiver That Reveals The Limits Of India’s Strategic Autonomy 