By Sushil Kutty
The Congress has left the Uttar Pradesh bypolls, leaving the field open for the Samajwadi Party Supremo Akhilesh Yadav against the state-BJP led by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, who has sole responsibility of redeeming BJP after Akhilesh Yadav took the saffron party to the cleaners in the Lok Sabha elections with his ‘Pichada Dalit Alpsankyak (PDA)’ axis of resistance. The Samajwadi Party head has sworn to repeat his 2024 success in the 2027 assembly elections with the bypolls, set to take place on November 13, a stepping stone for the assembly polls.
The Samajwadi Party chief is confidence-personified, his dependency on ‘PDA’ full and final, as he challenges Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath to a do-or-die battle in the state which routinely elects prime ministers, from the first one to the latest one now residing at 7, Lok Kalyan Marg.
Yadav believes, for good reason, that ‘Pichada Dalit Alpsankyak’ will fetch him not just the bypolls but also victory in the 2027 assembly elections. Hoardings have come up in Lucknow proclaiming ‘satta (authority)’ for Akhilesh Yadav in the 2027 assembly elections.
The arrogance was matched only by the assurance in Akhilesh Yadav’s counters to every move the BJP makes, from Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s ‘Batenge toh katenge’ to the saffron party’s assertions that the Samajwadi Party’s ‘PDA’ doesn’t stand a chance against the BJP’s slogan for all climes, the clarion call in all election arenas where assembly polls will be held in November along with the UP bypolls.
‘Batenge toh katenge’ is the BJP’s for keeps just like PDA will be there on Samajwadi Party billboards right through to 2027 and beyond. ‘PDA’ was tried and tested in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and ‘Batenge toh Katenge’ underwent ‘pranpratishta’ in the Haryana assembly elections. An epic battle is expected in the UP bypolls, and assembly elections in Maharashtra and Jharkhand will be gripping, to say the least.
Will ‘PDA’ be able to hold its own against ‘Batenge toh katenge’? The problem is in the Samajwadi Party’s limited footprint. It is almost wholly a regional party; all-powerful only in Uttar Pradesh and, though cited as “socialist”, it isn’t socialist except for the word ‘samajwadi’ in its moniker, which doesn’t clinch the argument for the party.
In Maharashtra, at least, Muslims would strategically not vote for the Samajwadi Party despite and in spite of Abu Azmi’s silver tongue and Akhilesh Yadav’s total submission to the Muslim vote-bank. There are journalists and political analysts who are asking Akhilesh Yadav to name a Muslim Chief Minister while he sticks to the Lok Sabha, and aims for the prime minister’s post.
Yogi Adityanath is one of the star campaigners for the BJP outside Uttar Pradesh and he will be talking a lot about ‘Batenge toh katenge’ wherever the NDA will be contesting. Akhilesh Yadav, on the other hand, will for the main part, only be campaigning in Uttar Pradesh.
Meanwhile, distracting from the main menu, there are folks, mostly starry-eyed journalists and “political analysts”, who are talking of one ‘PDA’ against another ‘PDA’, Akhilesh Yadav’s PDA against Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath’s PDA, “Pichada Dalit Alpsankyak PDA’ against ‘Pichada Dalit Aghada PDA’ — Akhilesh Yadav’s ‘Alpsankhyak’ against Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath ‘Aghada’. One with exclusive rights to the Muslim vote-bank while the other with sole hold on forward-caste Hindu votes.
The BJP is uncomfortable with this classification. It doesn’t want to have anything to do with ‘PDA’, not when ‘sabka saath sabka vikas’ remains Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s evergreen slogan and nobody in the BJP has the guts to admit openly that ‘Batenge toh katenge’ or ‘Batoge toh katoge’ fetched the BJP victory in Haryana, beating ‘sabka saath sabka vikas’ hands down.
It has still not got into the BJP top brass’ that Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is living the reality, is practical to a fault, while Prime Minister Narendra Modi is living in denial and is only around because of a bunch of committed Modi-bhakts who gave him 240 Lok Sabha seats.
BJP leaders and social media influencers, who kowtow to the BJP top brass, are scared stiff of relegating Prime Minister Modi to second place in the high-stakes popularity perception battle in the BJP, in which Yogi Adityanath is clearly in the lead. So, when talk meanders to ‘Batenge toh katenge’, a primeval fear grips these cowards.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi remains Supremo No. 1 in the BJP, but Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath reigns supreme among Hindu voters and he has the support of RSS Chief Mohan Bhagwat because Bhagwat has read the signs and seen the writing on the wall. The two had an hour-long one-on-one in Mathura earlier this week and probably Modi too must have come around to accepting that the Yogi is more popular among Hindus than Modi is among Muslims!
Hindus vote for the BJP but Muslims have told it to Modi’s face that they wouldn’t vote for him or for the BJP if he stood on his head! In Uttar Pradesh, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is hard to beat. It wasn’t the Yogi’s fault that Akhilesh Yadav walked off with the kudos in Lok Sabha polls 2024. The setback laid fully at the central leadership’s door.
Therefore, it is not for nothing that the BJP top brass is in the basement now while Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is in the drawing room with the drawing board for the Uttar Pradesh bypolls in front of him. The reality is that given half a chance, BJP President JP Nadda and BJP strongman Amit Shah, along with Uttar Pradesh Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya, will feed Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath to the wolves if not to the King of the jungle.
The power struggle in the BJP has only subsided beneath the skin because Prime Minister Modi has more confidence in the Yogi than in himself and the Prime Minister wants to remain ‘Prime Minister. Modi’s Muslims-first policy, which he borrowed from Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, makes him suspect in the eyes of the BJP’s Hindu vote-bank. If the BJP doesn’t fare well in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, and loses badly the UP bypolls, the Modi-led NDA coalition at the Centre will break up in pieces and it will be difficult to pick up the pieces.
Modi will be out on a limb and walking the plank. The BJP isn’t interested in a ‘PDA’ of its own. It is set on a casteless Hindu vote-bank, which is RSS strategy. The PDA is basically a caste-soup. But the Samajwadi Party has its sights set firmly on 2027 and PDA is its ticket to conquer. The goal is the assembly elections while the upcoming bypolls will be another opportunity for Akhilesh Yadav to show his political mettle. And with Akhilesh Yadav stampeding the Congress out of Uttar Pradesh, it is a direct one-on-one between the Yogi and the Yadav, both with prime Ministerial aspirations. (IPA Service)