Data compiled by staffing firm Xpheno indicates that the number of returnees could surpass the record 15,100 recorded throughout 2025. The figures highlight a sustained increase in professionals relocating from the US, although the number travelling in the opposite direction remains higher.
Xpheno recorded 7,200 returnees in 2023 and 9,800 in 2024, before the figure climbed sharply last year. The latest tally represents approximately 84 per cent of the previous annual record, with three months remaining when the September figures were compiled.
Kamal Karanth, co-founder of Xpheno, expects the annual total to exceed last year’s level. He indicated that changes affecting the H-1B visa programme could accelerate the movement and potentially reverse the traditional imbalance between professionals leaving India and those returning.
Nearly 14,500 technology professionals moved from India to the US between January and September, compared with 12,700 travelling back, according to Xpheno. The difference suggests that outward migration continues, but the gap between the two flows has narrowed substantially.
The figures cover white-collar technology professionals moving between the two countries and are not restricted to H-1B visa holders. They therefore reflect broader workforce mobility rather than departures directly attributable to individual immigration measures.
Trump’s administration has tightened scrutiny of employment-based immigration, introducing additional costs and restrictions affecting employers seeking overseas talent. The changes have increased uncertainty for technology workers whose ability to remain employed in the US depends on visa sponsorship.
The administration maintains that stronger immigration controls are necessary to protect domestic employment and prevent misuse of programmes intended to address specialised labour shortages. Technology employers, however, have warned that restrictions can complicate recruitment and retention of skilled personnel.
Recruitment specialists identify immigration uncertainty, redundancies across major US technology companies and changing career opportunities as factors influencing relocation decisions. Individual circumstances differ, making it difficult to establish how many workers returned specifically because of government policy.
Karanth cautioned that professionals returning to India face considerable difficulties securing suitable employment. Domestic technology recruitment has remained uneven following the expansion of hiring during 2021, leaving employers selective about additional appointments.
Neeti Sharma, chief executive of TeamLease Digital, said employers increasingly prioritise specialised capabilities and relevant experience rather than overseas employment credentials alone. Demand is concentrated in artificial intelligence, machine learning, data management and product leadership.
Cloud computing, cybersecurity and enterprise applications of artificial intelligence also feature among the skills sought by employers. Professionals possessing these capabilities may find stronger opportunities than candidates whose experience does not match current business requirements.
Compensation presents another obstacle. Recruiters estimate that returning professionals may receive only 25 to 33 per cent of their previous US salaries, depending on their responsibilities, experience, employer and location.
Xpheno’s compensation assessment places the average annual earnings of a full-stack engineer employed in the US on an H-1B visa at approximately $105,000. Salaries for such positions generally range between $70,000 and $150,000.
Comparable professionals occupying the highest-paying segment of India’s employment market may earn between $20,000 and $32,000 annually. These differences can complicate relocation decisions, particularly for workers accustomed to substantially higher dollar-denominated compensation.
Recruiters say employers generally follow domestic salary structures rather than matching overseas remuneration. Candidates consequently face decisions involving lower earnings, different career opportunities and the financial implications of relocating their households.
Sharma estimates that professionals working in applied artificial intelligence can command annual salaries ranging from approximately Rs 16 lakh to Rs 35 lakh, although experienced specialists in senior positions may receive substantially higher packages.
Global capability centres operated by multinational companies offer another employment avenue for returnees. These facilities recruit specialists across engineering, product development, analytics and technology operations, but overseas applicants compete with experienced professionals already working in India.
Xpheno’s assessment draws on its candidate database, recruitment management systems and employment platforms covering domestic and international hiring. The firm uses these records to identify patterns in professional mobility, experience and compensation across the two markets.
The estimates represent observed recruitment and workforce movements rather than a government census of returning citizens. They consequently provide an industry-level indication of changing migration patterns, with the figures covering a defined segment of technology employment rather than every occupational category.
The September assessment also distinguishes movements between countries from changes in visa status, an important consideration because professionals may relocate for personal, career or financial reasons without losing their legal eligibility to work in the United States.
