By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Biju Janata Dal (BJD) led by Naveen Patnaik, five-time Chief Minister of Odisha, had been a trusted informal ally of Prime Minister Narendra Modi led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) for a decade since 2014, but after being greatly suffering twin election debacles – both for the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha – at the hands of the BJP in 2024, BJD has turned latter’s bitter foe. BJD MPs joined the Congress-led INDIA bloc’s walk-out from the Rajya Sabha on July 3, for the second time after the first on June 28.
Such a great displeasure in quick succession on the part of BJD leader Naveen Patnaik was not expected, even by the early last week when the first session of the 18thLokSabha began. BJD had only announced that it would stop giving “issue-based support” to the BJP in the Parliament of India. However, the attitude shown by PM Narendra Modi and his BJP in both the Houses of the Parliament, made the BJD and its leadership realise BJP’s strangulating political grip over their neck, which they preferred to call the “interests of Odisha”.
In the meeting former CM Naveen Patnaik held with party’s Rajya Sabha MPs, BJD chief had categorically instructed the members that they must ensure the party goes all out to “protect the interests of Odisha” and emerge as a “strong and vibrant” opposition in the Parliament.
In the Lok Sabha election 2024, BJD had lost all its 12 seats it had won in 2019, and therefore it does not have any Member of Parliament in the 18thLokSabha. Despite this debacle, BJD was able to maintain its considerable support base with 37.53 per cent of vote share. Therefore, all is not lost for the BJD in Odisha, though BJP has won 20 out of 21 Lok Sabha seats in the state with a vote share of 45.34 per cent. There was a swing of 6.94 per cent in favour of the BJP while a negative swing of 5.27 per cent against the BJD. There were several rounds of talks for formal alliance between BJD and BJP, which ultimately failed. INDIA bloc contested and Congress was able to win 1 seat.
Though the result shows that BJD and the BJP have become chief adversaries in Odisha, BJD and the Congress had been chief political competitors earlier in the state. BJD’s support of the Congress led walkout in Rajya Sabha is therefore a significant political development, paving the way for a possibility of BJD formally joining the INDIA bloc, which would be perhaps welcomed by the opposition leaders.
In the present Rajya Sabha, BJD has 9 members. NDA at present has 114 seats in the Upper House with BJP’s 90 seats. Official opposition INDIA bloc has 88 seats. A total of 14 seats out of 245 are vacant at present. Among the other opposition political parties which are neither in NDA nor in INDIA bloc there are 29 seats – which included YSRCP’s 11, BRS’s 4, AIADMK’s 3, BSP’s 1, and MNF’s 1 seat. YSRCP has already said that though they have lost the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha election in Andhra Pradesh at the hands of NDA (BJP+TDP+JSP), PM Modi led Centre would still need their support in Rajya Sabha.
BJD’s turning BJP’s foe is therefore significant, since INDIA bloc in cooperation with the other non-INDIA bloc and non-NDA parties can block any legislation in the Rajya Sabha. YSRCP, BRS, AIADMK, BSP, and MNF can be, with little effort, won over by the INDIA bloc since all these parties have been angry with the BJP leadership. There is presently only 231 members in Rajya Sabha and NDA has 114 seats, which does not augur well for any sweeping legislation in the third term of PM Modi’s regime. Patnaik’s message to BJD MPs was clear: “No more support to BJP, only opposition”.
As for the “interest of Odisha” in concerned, we have to look into the second political debacle the BJD had to suffer at the hands of BJP in the Vidhan Sabha election 2024. In a 147 seat Vidhan Sabha, BJD could win only 51 seats as against BJP’s 78. Though the BJP won 27 seats more than the BJD’s, one must not conclude that Naveen Patnaik’s support base is less than the BJP’s. Actually, BJD’s votes share at 40.22 per cent is greater than the BJP’s vote share of 40.07 per cent, which speaks about BJD’s possible return to power in the next election.
If BJD’s walk-out in Rajya Sabha along with INDIA bloc led by Congress is an indication of the joint opposition of the BJP led NDA, one must expect such joint opposition also in the Odisha Vidhan Sabha on almost all issues. Congress has 14 seats, CPI(M) has 1 seat, and 3 are independents. Thus, total strength of opposition is 69 in the Vidhan Sabha, which is strong enough to make the BJP led government in Odisha accountable. (IPA Service)
