By T N Ashok
NEW YORK: In a dramatic shift that threatens to upend years of growing U.S.-India strategic convergence, President Donald Trump has announced a substantial tariff escalation against Indian exports, targeting what he calls “India’s defiance” in continuing to buy Russian oil.
The proposed increase—raising already-high tariffs beyond 25%—marks a sharp rupture from the bonhomie Trump once shared with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It underscores not just the volatility of Trump’s “America First” doctrine, but the narrowing space for neutrality in a world fractured by renewed great power rivalry.
The irony is rich. In early 2025, Prime Minister Modi was among the first global leaders to visit Trump after his re-election, proclaiming his ambition to “Make India Great Again”—a clear mirroring of Trump’s own slogan. At the time, it seemed to signal a continuation of their first-term camaraderie. But that personal rapport has eroded rapidly, as Trump now appears intent on cornering Modi diplomatically and economically, seemingly forgetting the very bonhomie he once flaunted as a pillar of U.S.-India ties.
Modi’s India, committed to “strategic autonomy,” has refused to cease buying discounted Russian oil, arguing that energy decisions are dictated by national interest. Trump’s frustration stems from this defiance. But it also reveals a larger truth: India wants to remain non-aligned in an increasingly binary world order—something Trump’s worldview doesn’t tolerate well.
India’s oil calculus is pragmatic. Following the West’s sanctions on Russia post-Ukraine invasion, global energy markets were thrown into disarray. Europe redirected its traditional oil imports, and India stepped in to fill the void—purchasing Russian crude at discounted rates.
Under the Biden administration, this was seen as stabilizing. Then-U.S. Ambassador to India Eric Garcetti even acknowledged it was part of the West’s deliberate sanction architecture: let Russia continue selling oil, but redirect it to markets like India and China to avoid global price spikes. India’s purchases thus helped moderate global energy inflation.
Trump, however, has reversed this logic. Declaring that India and Russia can “take their dead economies down together,” Trump now frames India’s Russian oil trade as both economic betrayal and geopolitical affront. This pivot is not just policy—it is political theater, playing to Trump’s domestic base and reflecting a transactional worldview where loyalty is measured in compliance.
This is not merely about oil. Trump’s broader irritation seems rooted in India’s strategic hedging. Modi has refused to overtly align with the U.S. against China or Russia. He snubbed Trump’s claim of mediating the short war with Pakistan, a claim New Delhi flatly denied. Trump has since warmed to Pakistan, lowering its tariffs to 19% and inviting its military leadership to the White House—moves seen in India as diplomatic slights.
What Trump perhaps fails to appreciate is that India’s geopolitical stance isn’t anti-American—it is fiercely pro-Indian. New Delhi has no intention of being a junior partner in anyone’s camp. This is the same India that hosts the Quad, engages deeply with U.S. defense industries, and supplies nearly half of U.S. smartphone imports, while simultaneously buying S-400 missile systems from Russia.
Trump’s decision to hike tariffs risks pushing India further into Russia’s orbit—not because India wants that, but because the U.S. is narrowing its options. Strategic coercion rarely works with countries that prize autonomy.
The proposed tariffs would target key Indian export sectors—textiles, auto components, chemicals, and gems and jewellery—all of which are heavily reliant on U.S. market access. The trade surplus India enjoys with the U.S., which reached $41 billion in FY25, could shrink sharply. Ratings agency ICRA has already downgraded India’s GDP growth forecast to 6.0%, citing policy uncertainty and the chilling effect of Trump’s trade threats.
The broader irony is that India is not alone in its Russian oil purchases. China, the largest buyer, continues to import both Russian and Iranian crude—yet Trump has granted Beijing a 90-day tariff reprieve. This double standard has drawn criticism from both sides of the aisle. Republican leader Nikki Haley lambasted Trump, warning, “Don’t give China a pass and burn a relationship with a strong ally like India.”
Pharmaceuticals and petroleum products—two sectors heavily entwined with U.S. demand—may be spared for now. But the precedent being set is dangerous. Using tariffs as a cudgel to enforce foreign policy compliance on sovereign decisions sets the stage for deeper trade wars and political estrangement.
Beyond economics, the strategic implications are profound. India is seen by most U.S. foreign policy thinkers as the linchpin of Indo-Pacific balancing strategies—particularly against a rising China. India’s partnerships in defense, cybersecurity, space, and critical technology have expanded rapidly under both Republican and Democratic administrations.
But strategic partnerships rest on mutual respect and long-term alignment. If Trump continues down this path, India may deepen its ties with Russia or even explore rapprochement with China, evidenced by recent foreign minister-level meetings and plans to restore direct air connectivity after five years. It’s a grim possibility: a world where U.S. overreach pushes India closer to its traditional rivals.
Modi is not blind to these dynamics. Domestically, he is under fire from opposition parties who say his friendship with Trump is turning toxic. His goal remains clear: grow India’s economic strength, maintain strategic independence, and play all sides for maximum advantage. That includes using Russian oil to fuel growth while still courting U.S. investment and defense ties.
But Trump doesn’t accept “middle ground” in geopolitics. In his mind, nations are either with America or against it. That rigidity undermines the very premise of U.S. strategic partnerships in the 21st century, especially with regional powers like India that refuse to be subordinate.
Trump’s tariffs against India—framed as punishment for buying Russian oil—represent not just a trade dispute but a deeper philosophical conflict about sovereignty, power, and alignment. His move might play well domestically, but it risks unravelling one of the most promising strategic partnerships of the century.
India has made clear that it will act in its own interests—whether buying oil from Russia, or manufacturing Apple products for the world. Modi may have been ready to “Make India Great Again,” but Trump has chosen to put “America First,” even at the cost of alienating allies.
In the zero-sum world Trump seems to envision, strategic neutrality is a betrayal. But in today’s multipolar order, punishing partners for acting autonomously is a recipe for diminished influence. The more Trump tries to coerce India, the more he risks losing it—not to Russia or China necessarily, but to a future where India no longer sees the U.S. as a reliable, respectful partner. (IPA Service)
