By Kalyani Shankar
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is likely to secure a historic fourth term in office, according to the latest opinion poll projections. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is gaining ground in the state and is ambitious enough to challenge Mamata’s position. Meanwhile, both the Congress and the CPI(M) have lost their influence. The key message for Mamata is that the BJP’s rise has come at the expense of these traditional parties.
The political contest in Bengal has intensified, rendering this election a significant moment for the state. This state fosters a highly competitive political landscape. The TMC holds a clear advantage, with 119 seats categorised as very strong and an additional 95 as strong. Mamata Banerjee is facing her former aide and BJP candidate, Suvendu Adhikari, in the Bhabanipore constituency. BJP has projected Suvendu as the BJP chief ministerial face.
The BJP has concentrated its campaign on criticising the Trinamool Congress (TMC) during Mamata Banerjee’s 15 years in office. Last week, Union Home Minister Amit Shah released a chargesheet against the West Bengal government, addressing Banerjee as “Mamataji” or “Didi” while expressing his criticisms of her leadership.
In the 2021 West Bengal elections, the TMC achieved a significant victory, securing 215 seats. This demonstrates a notable political shift. In contrast, the BJP won 77 seats, highlighting its increasing influence in the state. In the last five years since 2021 assembly polls, the BJP’s strength has come down to 65 due to defection and by election defeats of 12 members.
Voting patterns along religious and caste lines reveal how different communities support the TMC and the BJP, making every vote crucial to the election’s outcome.BJP is strong in the eight districts in North Bengal while TMC has complete domination in South Bengal districts. BJP is depending on Hindu votes while TMC is depending on Muslims, women and unorganized votes.
Banerjee has called on voters to see her as the candidate for all 294 state Assembly seats, not just individual TMC candidates. She accused the BJP of trying to illegally add voters from Bihar, Rajasthan, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh to West Bengal’s electoral rolls, claiming they plan to transport these voters by train using methods similar to those in Bihar.
Around 125 constituencies in West Bengal have mainly Muslim populations, with the Trinamool Congress (TMC) winning over 100, giving them a strong advantage. Unlike in the 2021 elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is now focusing less on religious themes in its campaign.
The BJP aims to avoid religious divisions in the upcoming elections, unlike in 2021. With over 30% of voters being Muslim, past divisions have harmed their support. To soften their approach, they now use the term “outsiders.” This insiders-versus-outsiders theme gives Mamata an advantage.
Mamata, a powerful political leader, rose to power in 2011 by ousting a Communist-led government that had ruled West Bengal for 34 years and has since retained her position. The TMC is not very structured and lacks strict rules. It also lacks a strong set of beliefs. Like many regional parties in India, it depends on the strong leadership of Mamata Banerjee affectionately known as Didi and Bengal Tigress by her supporters.
A BJP victory in West Bengal would give the party a significant edge, especially since Narendra Modi, despite being the most popular leader in India, has struggled in state elections. Winning in a state with a sizable Muslim electorate would carry strong symbolic weight and diminish any remaining chances for the fragmented opposition to challenge Modi’s organised party in the 2024 general elections.
Mamata Banerjee has accused BJP agents of flooding West Bengal’s electoral rolls with fake Form 6 applications to include outsiders. She urged the Election Commission to protect democratic rights. Despite significant resources, the BJP’s efforts to secure Fort William and establish its first government in West Bengal have not reached the halfway mark in the Assembly election.
The campaign trail has shifted from speeches to political intimacy, with candidates conveying a single message: “I am not above you; I am one among you.”
A slew of welfare schemes – bicycles and scholarships for students, cash transfers for girl students to continue education and health insurance – has ensured that Banerjee’s populist appeal is unblemished. She remains popular with women voters: some 17% of her candidates in this election are women.
Most analysts believe that Mamata Banerjee will win. She has an edge over her rivals right now. The BJP is working on the ground with the RSS’s help, and top BJP leaders are in Kolkata. Home Minister Amit Shah who is masterminding the campaign strategy in Bengal has announced his decision to stay for fifteen days in the state before the elections which end on April 29. This is something unusual. But still despite all the campaign by PM Narendra Modi and Amit Shah, TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee has the edge. She is at her best when the battle is toughest. This time also, all indications suggest that She will trounce the BJP once again. (IPA Service)
