By TN Ashok
NEW YORK: In a stunning reversal of decades-long US strategic priorities, Pakistan has successfully manipulated its way into Donald Trump’s favor while India—America’s designated counterweight to China—faces punishing tariffs and diplomatic isolation. This transformation reveals not just Trump’s transactional approach to foreign policy, but a dangerous short-sightedness that sacrifices long-term strategic interests for immediate gratification.
Pakistan’s diplomatic offensive has been nothing short of masterful manipulation. When a four-day conflict with India erupted in May 2025, killing dozens, Pakistan seized the moment to position Trump as peacemaker. The immediate Nobel Peace Prize nomination—the first of Trump’s second term—was calculated flattery that fed the president’s ego.
Trump’s public claim that Pakistan shot down seven Indian jets (a figure India vehemently denies) reveals how effectively Islamabad has shaped his narrative.
Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan’s military chief, has become Trump’s “favourite field marshal”—a remarkable achievement for a country that harboured Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad, mere miles from its premier military academy, until US Navy SEALs killed him in 2011 without Pakistani consent or knowledge.
That betrayal, which exposed Pakistan’s double game on terrorism, should have permanently damaged trust. Instead, Munir found himself at the table alone for lunch with Trump at the White House—the first Pakistani army chief to meet a US president without civilian officials present—a privilege denied to India’s leadership.
The centrepiece of Pakistan’s strategy is rare earth minerals. Presenting Trump with a glittering wooden box of Pakistani minerals during their September Oval Office meeting was theatrical genius. Pakistan claims $8 trillion in untapped mineral wealth, primarily in insurgency-plagued Baluchistan province, and has secured a $500 million partnership with Missouri-based US Strategic Metals for “enriched rare earth elements” including antimony, copper concentrate, and neodymium.
Here’s where geopolitics turns Byzantine: China controls nearly 90% of global rare earth processing, a stranglehold Beijing increasingly weaponizes in trade disputes. While India possesses significant rare earth reserves and has been developing processing capabilities, China has reportedly blocked Indian exports to the US market—not out of alliance with Pakistan, but to eliminate competition and maintain monopoly pricing. This is particularly ironic given India’s membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) alongside China and Pakistan, a bloc theoretically promoting regional cooperation.
India joined the SCO in 2017, hoping to balance Chinese influence and gain regional leverage. Instead, it finds itself in an organization where both China and Pakistan coordinate against its interests. The SCO has provided neither protection against Chinese border aggression (evident in the 2020 Galwan Valley clash that killed dozens) nor prevented Pakistan from exporting the very minerals India could supply.
China’s blockade of Indian rare earth exports to the US, despite SCO membership, exposes the alliance as worse than useless for New Delhi—it’s a trap. India gains no benefit from sitting at a table where its two adversaries collaborate to undermine its economic interests while Trump’s tariffs punish it for purchasing discounted Russian oil.
The cruel irony: India’s energy pragmatism—buying Russian oil at steep discounts during the Ukraine war—has enraged Trump, who sees it as disloyalty. Yet this was precisely the kind of independent strategic decision-making that previous US administrations encouraged in India as part of the “strategic autonomy” both countries valued. Now, Trump has slapped India with tariffs far exceeding those on Pakistan, treating a democratic partner like an adversary while embracing a military dictatorship with documented ties to terrorism.
Trump’s Pakistan pivot demolishes carefully constructed bipartisan US policy spanning two decades. Since President George W. Bush’s nuclear deal with India in 2005, Washington invested heavily in positioning New Delhi as a democratic counterweight to authoritarian China. The Quad alliance (US, India, Japan, Australia), military cooperation agreements, defense technology transfers, and intelligence sharing were all designed to create an alternative supply chain anchored in the Indo-Pacific’s largest democracy.
Paradoxically it was Trump who floated the Quad which was further strengthened by his successor Joe Biden. Now the Quad stands threatened with India’s membership of SCO while US friendship with Pakistan and Pak’s proximity to China undermines Quad.
Pakistan, meanwhile, has been linked to virtually every major terrorist organization operating in South Asia. It sheltered Taliban leadership during the Afghanistan war while receiving billions in US aid to fight them—a duplicity that prompted President Biden to call it “one of the most dangerous nations in the world.” The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which Munir once headed, has documented connections to the Haqqani Network, Lashkar-e-Taiba (perpetrators of the 2008 27/11 Mumbai terror attacks), and other US-designated terror groups.
Yet Trump sees only immediate transactions: Pakistan offers rare earths and flattery; India buys Russian oil and doesn’t grovel. The fact that Pakistani rare earths will flow through the military-controlled Frontier Works Organization—ensuring generals profit while Baloch insurgents fight for autonomy—doesn’t register. Neither does the reality that Pakistan’s minerals come from a province wracked by separatist violence, making supply chains inherently unstable.
Pakistan-US relations are heading north—for now. Trump’s transactional approach rewards countries that master his psychology: public praise, personal engagement with him, and tangible offerings (minerals, market access, military deals). Pakistan has delivered on all fronts. The September approval of Raytheon AMRAAM missile sales and the designation of Balochistan Liberation Army as a terror organization (effectively criminalizing Pakistani separatists seeking independence) demonstrate Washington’s commitment to this new relationship.
But this trajectory is built on quicksand. Pakistan’s rare earth reserves require massive infrastructure investment in one of the world’s most volatile regions. The $500 million partnership is minuscule compared to the scale needed to challenge Chinese dominance. More critically, Pakistan’s military-controlled extraction model enriches generals while impoverishing Baloch populations, guaranteeing continued insurgency. When attacks disrupt supplies—as they inevitably will—will Trump remain enamoured?
The world’s largest democracy, with a $3.7 trillion economy and positioned on China’s doorstep, has been relegated to punching bag status. Trump’s tariffs exceed those on Pakistan despite India’s far larger trade volume, greater geopolitical significance, and democratic values alignment. The carefully nurtured defence partnership, technology collaboration, and people-to-people ties (4.5 million Indian-Americans represent one of America’s most successful immigrant communities) are being sacrificed for short-term tariff revenue.
The Indian community is one of the largest tax paying ones in America contributing to the kitty of the US treasury. Immigrants as a group paid about $651.9 billion in taxes in 2023. That’s about 19.25% of the total tax collections. With 4.2 million in the US, the tax collection, per government sources , is anything above 6% of the over 650 billion.
In 2024, if the US tax collection exceeds $4 trillion , the Indian community would have contributed about $294 billion as per a Congress estimate. Mind it , Indian comnunity is just one percent of the total American population.
India’s response options are limited. It cannot match Pakistan’s obsequious flattery without abandoning self-respect. It cannot stop Russian oil purchases without crippling its economy. Its rare earth potential remains throttled by Chinese market manipulation. And its SCO membership, far from providing leverage, has merely given adversaries another forum to coordinate against it.
Trump’s Pakistan embrace reveals a president operating without a strategic framework. Creating alternative supply chains to China requires partnering with economies that have infrastructure, stability, and aligned interests—precisely what India offers and Pakistan lacks. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has already ensnared Pakistan in debt traps; now the US is competing to exploit the same unstable mineral resources.
Meanwhile, the strategic architecture built to contain China’s expansion—Quad cooperation, Indo-Pacific economic frameworks, technology partnerships—crumbles. India will inevitably hedge by deepening Russian ties and reconsidering its China policy. Pakistan will play the US against China, maximizing aid from both while maintaining its terrorist proxies. And China watches gleefully as Trump dismantles the one coalition that genuinely threatened its regional dominance.
The most damning indictment: Pakistan harboured bin Laden, yet receives missiles and praise. India remained democratic through seven decades of challenges, yet received tariffs and disdain. This isn’t diplomacy— it is civilizational amnesia dressed in transactional clothing. (IPA Service)
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