By P. Sreekumaran
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: There is no denying that the Left Democratic Front (LDF) has suffered a setback in the local bodies elections. The Opposition United Democratic Front (UDF) is certainly on a comeback trail with an excellent victory. As for the BJP, but for the win in Thiruvananthapuram Corporation, it does not have much to be enthusiastic about.
True it is an electoral reverse for the LDF which was expecting to register a victory. But this is not the first time that the LDF has lost the local bodies poll. The Front has bounced back with renewed vigour in the past. This too shall pass and the LDF would hit the winning trail again in the final – the crucial Assembly elections scheduled to be held early next year.
Contrarily, the UDF is on cloud nine. Understandable. It is their first major electoral win ten years. But this win does not guarantee a victory in the ‘final’. As the saying goes, one swallow does not make a summer. If anything, there is the danger of the front being carried away by the victory and losing the plot. There are many hurdles to overcome before it can reach the winning post in the assembly elections. Victory could exacerbate the factionalism and jockeying for power. Unless it plays its cards well, the front could again end up on the losing side in the Assembly poll battle.
As for the BJP, it has every reason to feel good having won an upset win in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation dislodging the LDF from power. The BJP’s win is being attributed to the triangular nature of the contest with the anti-BJP vote split between the LDF and the UDF. The BJP, however, failed to retain power in Palakkad municipality having won only 25 seats as against 28 it had last time. The party can also draw comfort from the fact that it has managed to make its presence felt in Kollam and Kozhikode districts. But the fact remains that its performance has not been up to the expectation of its leaders.
But what accounts for the defeat of the LDF? The loss can be attributed to many factors. The most important factor is the alienation of the Muslim community from the front. The CPI(M)’s support to Sree Narayana Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam chief Vellappally Natesan’s vituperative outbursts against the Muslim community has played a big role in the LDF’s defeat. It was, undoubtedly a political blunder. The LDF should have taken Vellappaly to task for his anti-Muslim statements. Its failure to do so was bad. What was worse was its support to Natesan’s Muslim baiting. The LDF must lose no time to reverse its stand and correct this political blunder. Loss of a substantial slice of the Muslim vote will cost it dear in the assembly polls, especially in the Malabar region, where Congress ally the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) is very strong.
Another factor that contributed to the LDF’s loss is the failure to highlight the voter-relevant local issues, extremely important in local body polls. Focussing on welfare measures and infrastructure development was OK. But the LDF should have focused more on bread and butter issues. That it did not do so was a tactical mistake. And it cost the LDF dear in many once-core constituencies.
The Sangh Parivar, in hindsight, would seem to have succeeded in setting the political agenda, and the LDF walked into that trap. Instead of concentrating on local issues, the LDF’s campaign against communalism left the voters cold to an extent. Greater focus on local issues could have minimized the magnitude of the LDF loss.
Before delving deeper into the causes of the LDF’s loss and the UDF’s win, let us have a look at the facts and figures. Of the six Corporations, the UDF won four –Kannur, Kollam, Thrissur and Kochi. LDF had to be satisfied with only Kozhikode. The UDF won 505 of the 941 grama panchayats, 79 of the 152 block panchayats, seven out of the 14 district panchayats and 54 out of the 86 municipalities. As for the LDF, it won only one corporation – Kozhikode. The Front also won 340 grama panchayats, 63 block panchayats, seven district panchayats and 28 municipalities. As for the BJP, it emerged as the topper in Thiruvananthapuram Corporation needing only more seat to ensure majority. The BJP-led NDA has 50 seats in the 100-seat Corporation. The BJP has visibly improved its show in urban areas. It has also emerged as the main opposition in many municipalities.
In hindsight, it would seem that the holding of Global Ayyappa Samagamam did not fetch the LDF the expected dividends. On the contrary, the arrest of former Travancore Devaswom board chief and other Board officials in connection with the Sabarimala gold theft case did cut into the LDF vote. The temple theft gave the opposition a powerful weapon to harass the LDF. The only thing is the Congress benefited more from the Sabarimala issue than the BJP. The Rahul Mangoottathil issue – there was a case against him for sexual misconduct – did not have the kind of impact the LDF had hoped for.
Also, the hush-hush manner in which the LDF signed the PM-SHRI to release federal funding also opened the front to the charge of being in link with the BJP.
At the end of the day, it can be said with certainty that the LDF has its task cut out. It has to take corrective action apace as there is not much time left for the assembly polls. The LDF’s base is intact. It has to ensure that the allies too pull their weight, especially the Kerala Congress(M), whose below par show in central Kerala also accounted for the LDF loss. Tue, the LDF has lost the battle. But it can – and must – win the war (read the assembly elections) to realize the dream of three consecutive terms in power. The task is not easy. But it is not impossible either. The LDF has bounced back from electoral reverses in the past. It does have the wherewithal and organizational muscle and skill to script the all-important victory in the crucial assembly elections. (IPA Service)
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