By Anjan Roy
The Iran-US war has dangerously escalated all of a sudden when there were indications of resumed talks between the combatants post a lull in US strikes over Iran. The extension of the conflict to a major oil producing country, Saudi Arabia, had pushed oil prices immediately by 5% and pushed the price to over $88 per barrel.
A militant group in Iraq, which is described as a proxy for Iran, has been attacked by a joint force of US-Saudi command. The militant group, Popular Mobilisation Front, has suffered heavy casualties and a large number of people have been injured.
US Central command has officially annulled the joint action from US and Saudi Arabia against Iran-linked Shia forces in Iraq. The attack has been vehemently condemned by the Iranian state as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty.
Iraq meanwhile has spoken against the attack and has cancelled a major visit by Iraqi prime minister to Saudi Arabia. The country’s president has also come down heavily on the joint attack on Iraqi soil.
The oil spike should cause fresh worries to India as supply constraints would further aggravate. Already, the vicious turn in the Russia-Ukraine and attacks in the Black Sea ports had further hurt Russian supplies. Indian purchases of Russian crude has also come under pressure and become more uncertain.
As it appears, the sudden attack on Iran-backed Shia militants based in Iraq has complicated the Iran-US war in several dimensions and bring in a major country in the region directly into the conflict. So far, Saudi Arabia had stayed out of the war even though many if its assets were bombed by Iran in course of the conflict.
The joint US-Saudi operation has now re-ignited a long festering enmity between two traditional rivals — Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia. The two countries have been jostling for influence and power as regional players among the Muslim countries of the Middle East.
Following the joint US-Saudi raid on Iran linked militias in Iraq that od rivalry has been brought out in the open once again. Indeed, in recent days Saudi Arabia was feeling increasingly uncomfortable with the Iran-US agreement which in a way turned a blind eye to some of Iran’s regional operations.
The immediate provocation for Saudi involvement in a attack on Iran backed militia headquarters in Iraq are the repeated attacks on Saudi oil facilities in the country as well as attacks on Saudi ships passing through the Gulf of Oman. Additionally, Saudi Arabia was attacked by Houthi militants repeatedly.
The PMF, based in Iraq, was organised to fight the Islamic State militants and reclaim lands won over the ISIS operatives in 2014. After the defeat of the ISIS forces, the Iraqi militants were absorbed in the overall security forces of the country.
Nevertheless, the PMF, constituted mainly with Iran-linked Shia Muslims, continued to act as an extended arm of Iranian war planners in its regional operations. The Shia operatives of the militia groups had acted on orders from Iran.
At the same time as US-Saudi were attacking the Shia militants regionally, Iran had suddenly mounted a major offensive against US forces based in Jordan. Several US military bases in Jordan came under heavy assault early on Wednesday which took the US forces by surprise.
USA had put a brake on continuing strikes on Iranian facilities for the last three days and it was largely expected that talks should resume once again. US present Donald Trump had also been talking somewhat softly about behind the scenes talks and expressed his satisfaction.
But the sudden attacks on Jordan bases had angered Trump and compromised his situation further in front of the American public and legislators. Iran’s sudden and powerful attacks on American forces in Jordan, experts interpret, as a demonstration of a sudden change in approach and sending fresh signals.
The Jordan attacks and renewed fusillades against Saudi oil facilities and other targets followed the day the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, met Donald Trump. Until recently, the relations between the two had turned a full circles from bonhomie to apparent stand off. It was possibly a demonstration of Iran willingness to go the offensive way if Israel was allowed to start their bombing of the power infrastructure and other targets in Iran.
More importantly, this was being seen as Iran’s attempt to retain its critical say in the management of the Strait of Hormuz. The alternative route that US and Oman had worked out, the southern route through the Strait, hugging the Omani coast, could have weakened Iran’s hold over the Strait of Hormuz.
It would have meant a defeat of Iranian position and losing its control over the waterway. A kind of return to what was prevailing before the current round of hostilities began. That was totally unacceptable to Iran. Hence, Iran is putting a lot at stake to retain its stranglehold over the Strait of Hormuz. The way out looks difficult and protracted for the Hormuz tangle to clear up. (IPA Service)
