By Dr. Gyan Pathak
In the first phase of election on November 6 for 121 out of 243 Vidhan Sabha constituencies of Bihar, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and Mahagathbandhan (MGB) fought a very tough electoral battle. There are about 20 seats where outcome seems to be very uncertain, which makes both the NDA and MGB worried. Therefore, their focus has immediately shifted on the second phase of election to be held on 122 seats on November 11, which will actually decide who will form the government in Bihar after the election result will be out on November 14.
The real contest in the first phase was between NDA and MGB. No doubt JSP is an important factor. JSP is making dent chiefly in NDA votes in almost all constituencies, though it is not in a position to win more than a couple of seats. It is the greatest worry for the NDA. JSP is cutting votes of MGB too, but in very small number. Despite this fact, MGB has upper hand in only about 45 seats, while NDA seems to be comfortable in about 50 seats. The outcome of 20 highly uncertain seats may affect the future of MGB, NDA, and JSP.
All these mean that whichever alliance takes the lead in the second phase of election for which campaign will end on only three days from now on November 9, will be able to form the government. JSP and other parties’ roles are very limited in the present circumstances, but they are likely to play important role in government formation if no alliance gets clear majority.
Out of 121 seats went to poll in the first phase, BJP had won 32 seats in 2020 elections. JDU had won 23 seats, RJD 42, Congress 8, Left 11, LJP 1, and VIP 4. NDA had thus 59 seats and MGB 61. BJP had contested 49, JD(U) 65, RJD 71, and Congress 31.
As for the vote share in 2020, NDA had vote share of 37.69 per cent while MGB has bagged 38.06 per cent of votes. As per the Lok Sabha election result, NDA was leading in 95 assembly constituencies, while MGB was leading in only 25. It had created very high hopes within NDA. However, their hopes have been shattered, and INDIA bloc has considerably recovered its lost ground. As of now NDA is hoping to just win somewhere between 50 and 58 seats, while MGB hopes to win between 45 and 54 seats.
The change of political prospect in the current election was due to two political factors – first, alliances have changed, and the second is the new entrant JSP creating waves in the political arena. Chirag Paswan’s LJP(RV) and Upendra Kushwaha’s RLM are now with NDA, and erstwhile NDA ally Mukesh Sahani led VIP is now with MGB.
Had there not be ‘friendly contests’ among MGB allies, INDIA bloc would have clear upper hand. MGB allies are in contest with each other in as many as 5 seats in the first phase. They are contesting with each other on 6 seats in the second phase.
The big contests took place on Alinagar, Chapra, Danapur, Lakhisarai, Mokama, Raghopur, Saharsa, Siwan, and Tarapur constituencies.
The phase 1 election was viewed as critical because it covered a large swathe of constituencies in South and Central Bihar, which have traditionally competitive for NDA and MGB. JSP also contested all seats denting vote banks of both the alliances. SIR is also a factor since many people could not vote, which were by and large perceived to be voters of INDIA bloc.
NDA has suffered from anti-incumbency in spite of the promises made and freebies given to the people, especially women. NDA appeared to have the structural advantage of incumbency too. Caste remained a powerful determinant.
JSP had dented in vote share of NDA more than the MGB. In many seats it is going to narrow the margin of winning candidates of the alliances. In couple of seats, JSP is in position to win.
With about 20 very closely contested seats, neither NDA nor MGB can be sure of winning more seats than its rival. If JSP wins more seats than 3, then it would be in a position to play a major role in government formation.
The second phase election seems to be as consequential as the first phase. However, what happens in the second phase will ultimately decide whether NDA retains its power or MGB wrests from it. Therefore, NDA and MGB have just intensified their campaign on the 122 seats campaign which will end on November 9. Nevertheless, both the alliances seem to be heading for even closer contests in the phase 2 than in phase 1. (IPA Service)
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