By Arun Srivastava
Eulogy of senior BJP leader B S Yediyurappa as the strongest and tallest political figure from the Lingayat community by the prime minister Narendra Modi early this week at a public meeting certainly is an ominous indicator of the political development that would entail in the near future in Karnataka.
More than underlying the fact that Karnataka BJP has no state leader to showcase as the face of the upcoming elections in April/May this year, it points to the deepening of communal chasm ahead of the election. No doubt Modi would be the public face of the party, but he is a not the much needed device to cement the inner caste feuds in the Hindus of the state. It is really surprising to see that Modi is projecting Yediyurappa to counter anti-incumbency against local MLAs and the Basavaraj Bommai-led state government and paper over allegations of corruption and maladministration. Yediyurappa had to be relieved from the job of chief minister on the allegation of his patronising corruption and corrupt elements.
Prime Minister who was in Shivamogga to open the modern airport there and launch rail and road projects, had high degree of praise for Yediyurappa, who, Modi said, dedicated his entire life for “the welfare of farmers and the poor.” His recent speech in the Karnataka Assembly, Modi said, was an inspiration to everyone in public life. Projecting the image, larger than life, Modi said the man demonstrated through his life, how to remain humble even while achieving great heights of success in public life. What was astonishing, both of them bowed to each other on stage in a show of mutual respect and warmth.
In the political parlance of BJP, Karnataka is the gateway to southern India, obviously winning the assembly election, is most essential task. To achieve this task, the BJP would prefer to go to any level. The BJP is working hard to turn the popularity of Modi-Yediyurappa into votes to retain power.
In fact the recent trends of Congress successfully consolidating its support base has turned Modi and Amit Shah more desperate. The recent visit of Modi to Karnataka was his fifth trip to state in last one month. Amit Shah has been frequenting the state. Shah is more focused on the region and the party seeks to highlight the government amending the law to increase the SC/ST quota in government jobs and educational admissions. The BJP increased the quota for STs from 3% to 7%.
Though BJP has been ruling the state for a decade, this was enabled on the borrowed strength; resorting to the infamous strategy of Operation Lotus. BJP never got the majority of seats in Karnataka assembly. Even in the last (2018) elections, it won 104 seats below the 113 mark. Congress had won 80 and JD(S) 37 seats. Congress got 38.14 per cent votes more than BJP’s 36.35 per cent, while the JD(S) got 18.3 per cent. The top leaders have been pouring huge resources in the state to influence the voters in the last few months before the polls.
Yet another issue that has shaken the confidence of Modi and Shah, has been the massive incumbency factor. This goes against BJP retaining the state in the 2023 elections. BJP grabbed the power in 2019, after toppling the Congress-JD(S) coalition rule. Unfortunately for Modi and Shah the BJP government has earned notoriety for rampant corruption; widespread hate campaign; communal violence and lawlessness; inability to defend linguistic, cultural identity, autonomy and legitimate interests of the state. “40% Commission Sarkar” is the name earned by the BJP government in this period.
The state leaders are panicky of the impending threat of losing the election. Recently the top leaders, along with the state leaders held a deliberation meet and at the internal meeting the gloomy scenario dominated the discussion. “Of the 224 assembly seats, only 30 have been categorised as ‘A’ or ‘sure BJP win seats’, while as many as 70 seats have been categorised as ‘D’ or ‘definite BJP defeat’ seats”. While the BJP leadership is reworking on its strategy to have a new type of social engineering, the possibilities are not being ruled that the state would witness severe communal repercussion.
Out of 224 seats 36 seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes (SC) and 15 for Scheduled Tribes (ST). Before the assembly elections of 2018 and Lok Sabha elections of 2019, the population was: Brahmins 3 per cent; Lingayats 14 per cent; Vokkaligas 11 per cent; Kurubas 7 per cent; remaining OBCs at 16 per cent; Scheduled Castes 19.5 per cent; Scheduled Tribes 5 per cent; Muslims 16 per cent; Christians 3 per cen.
Congress has a strong traditional social base consisting of OBCs, Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and Muslims. There are two prominent social coalitions; Muslims, OBCs and Dalits (MOD) and Religious Minorities, Backward Classes, Dalits and Tribals (AHINDA). BJP in Karnataka has a strong traditional social base emerging from the upper castes as well as dominant castes, specifically Lingayats. Besides, they have the support of certain castes belonging to OBCs, particularly from the coastal Karnataka region, Uttara Kannada, Udupi and Dakshina Kannada.
Realising this unevenness of caste conglomerate the BJP has been striving to win over some sections of Dalits, STs and SCs. This fear of losing power has been at the core of BJP and its allied organisations, Ram Sene, Bajrang Dal, Vishwa Hindu Parishad to intensify its anti Muslim campaign. Though these groups have been pursuing aggressive Hindutva for nearly 25 years in recent times they have made Tipu, Hijab, Cow slaughter as the major issues.
Anti-Muslim feeling acquired a major proportion during the rule of Yediyurappa. This is the prime reason for Modi eulogising and projecting him as the superman. He wanted to convey that the leader who had polarised the state politics is back. Fresh efforts are being initiated to polarise Hindu votes. Ironically this has been happening at a time when Prime Minister’s public thrust has been on wooing Muslims. Over the years, the representation of Muslims in the Karnataka Assembly has declined: from 17 Muslim MLAs in 1978, to two in 1983, The current Assembly has seven. All of them are from the Congress.
In his endeavour to win over Dalits and SC and ST voters, Modi has been outpouring his soft feeling for the Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge. As usual for this too, Sonia Gandhi has been his target. Speaking in Belagavi, he said “I respected Kharge for his devotion to public service but sad enough the Congress leaders did not give an umbrella to the most senior member Kharge in the scorching sun at the Congress plenary session in Chhattisgarh.” He accused the Congress of disrespecting its tall political figures from Karnataka like S Nijalingappa and Veerendra Patil, and now the AICC president Mallikarjun Kharge.
The Congress has gained organizationally in the recent , months following the massive response of the common people and the civic society of Karnataka to the Bharat Jodo Yatra. Further two major leaders Siddaramaiah and D Shivkumar are working together. The Congress is recharged to fight the BJP in the elections. The fight will be bitter as BJP leadership at the centre is determined to retain the state taking into account the impact of the Congress victory on the remaining state assembly polls in 2023. (IPA Service)
