By Ashis Biswas
KOLKATA: No one can deny that India faces a tough geopolitical challenge within its own South Asian neighbourhood in 2026, with due apologies to Foreign Minister Dr S Jaishankar and his countless admirers all over the world. Over time, recent geo-political developments in this highly sensitive region have coalesced to bring about a situation where India’s automatic dominance within the area is now open to question.
The unforeseen regime change in Bangladesh has emerged as the biggest concern for New Delhi. Led by Nobel laureate economist Dr M. Yunus, the new policymakers in Dhaka have also shown a certain deftness in working out a new regional diplomatic reset with smaller countries like Nepal and Bhutan.
They have increased their global diplomatic outreach. Bangladeshi officials have gone into overdrive visiting and deepening existing ties with Pakistan, Islamic countries, China and Western countries in general. The interim government has announced its new two-fold objective: (a) To proclaim worldwide that Bangladesh will no longer pursue an India-centric foreign policy and instead adopt a global approach and (b) to restore democracy by organising free and fair elections ensuring free speech human rights for all political parties.
Dr Yunus personally approached major countries, seeking financial help and buying precious time for the stopgap rulers to carry out new administrative reforms — his being the only internationally known ‘face’ in the country.
Judging by the number of countries Bangladeshi diplomats have visited after August 5, 2024, it can be said the interim rulers have broadly met their targets. By avoiding any major reference to India, Bangladesh has in effect blindsided India on its East. It has hit back its larger neighbour for offering political shelter to Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League (AL). By banning the (AL) from the proposed general elections on Feb 12 2026, the new rulers have sidelined their strongest challenger at home, for now.
However while such moves may not be causing much worry to India at present, there can be no denying that its leadership of the region has been challenged. The renewed bonhomie between Bangladesh and Pakistan is certainly concerning for Delhi. In terms of total support, India can only count on Bhutan.
Earlier, there were instances in the UNGA sessions when India, Afghanistan, Bhutan and Bangladesh jointly, excoriated Pakistan for stirring up trouble in the region.
After India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are the biggest entities in South Asia, with a combined population of around 390 million mostly Muslim people. Reunited in a common Jihad-like pursuit to ‘bleed’ India, the determined hostility of such a huge human mass can very well create major security concerns for the mightiest of nations.
India had better beware in this negatively evolving situation. GOI would do well to dismiss apparently friendly statements from Dhaka and instead concentrate on strengthening its military. One has only to recall the recent war mongering statements coming from Dr Yunus and Gen Asim Munir Ahmed Shah to understand the true import of their pronouncements.
Therefore, nobody can fault the NDA Government for adopting all effective counter measures, including the beefing up of its armed forces, in self defence.
However, the Modi-led Government cannot be excused for what seems to be its major failure to anticipate the recent trend of events that has landed India in the present situation.
GOI policymakers and their loyal mainstream media suggest that no government can be expected to be totally omniscient about every incident/happenings taking place around them. While this is broadly true, it hardly explains why the NDA Government consistently ignored strongly disturbing trends emerging in its East during the last 5/6 years.
For all its huge size in terms of territory, growing economy and military power, a general impression has gained ground that the biggest country in South Asia led by the biggest democratic party (as per the BJP’s own claim), India does not have a plan B to counter crisis situations maturely, whether during war or peace.
Examples: Consider the confusion and anger in New Delhi as newly elected Maldives President Mohamed Muizzu openly invited China in 2023 to seek all manner of assistance.. But he snubbed India publicly and repeatedly.
Of late, Maldives has changed its tune and approached India for help and co-operation .And the bigger country has agreed instantly, swallowing Muizzu’s insults. Experts defending the NDA claim that this attests to India’s growing regional clout, not to mention protecting its strategic interests!
Really? What if the man runs back to China tomorrow, ignoring India? It seems the NDA can be surprisingly Gandhian in its foreign policy, even while handling unreliable, insolent minnows’, said a Kolkata-based analyst. .
Before India reacted in shock and anger to the violent anti Awami League coup — in effect it was more of an anti Indian uprising — Indian diplomats and analysts were well aware in 2024 of a major consolidation of anti Indian, pro-Pak forces including the Jamat e Islami, the Hifazate Islam and various smaller Islamic entities like the Al Shams, Al Badr, etc.
Signs that even a pro Indian Prime Minister like Sheikh Hasina was compelled to make school students ever more ‘Islamic’ by changing their textbooks and agreeing to remove various sculptures and murals considered ‘secular’ by Islamic hard liners in the Universities., should have sounded warning bells in Delhi.
Such trends were seen from the early twenties. Extremist Islamisation, was proceeding fast, especially after the Prime Minister Hasina restored diplomatic ties with Pakistan which resumed its diplomatic activities after a long break. Relations with Turkiye also increased,. Turkish officials, stepped up their visits and suggested — of all things — setting up arms producing factories in Bangladesh..
Meanwhile, ISI intelligence operatives were allowed to travel all over Bangladesh, meeting Islamic clerics and extremist student leaders. The sudden spell of hyper activity in Bangladesh was not necessarily restricted to only the international Islamic lobby. Officials of the US and EU embassies, their Ministers as well as NGOs also gleefully joined the ‘Let’s all go Bangladesh’ party. They urged upon the AL government to improve its poor HR violations record, and allow all opposition parties greater political space.
Prime Minister Hasina did not seem to mind even as the situation was moving beyond her control. Perhaps she was a victim of her own complacency, like her father the late Mujibur Rahman. He had always believed that he had no enemies in Bangladesh until his brutal assassination by the army occurred on Aug 15, 1975. Veteran analysts in Bangladesh do not rule out the possibility of Hasina similarly under estimating the dangers surrounding her. .
The strongest sign that Bangladesh, for all of Hasina’s hobnobbing with the Indian Government, had already turned into an anti Indian hub, occurred as far back as March 2021. Indian Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi was on his second visit to Bangladesh. to join official celebrations over the 50th anniversary of freedom in Bangladesh.
There were massive violent youth demonstrations, against India and the AL in several districts. Much official property including government offices, railways stations, Hindu temples, and private houses faced grenade attacks. Even ruthless methods used by the police and other agencies could not contain/control well armed Islamic militant youths!
Amidst massive loss of life and property, Mr Modi was forced to shorten his visit. Some GOI officials now think that this was the point of inflexion that changed the tenor of Indo-Bangla relations, Indian officialdom fully aware of what had happened, did not take any active steps even after this convincing evidence of the consolidation of Islamic fundamentalism right on India’s international border!
India did not bother to issue an official statement over the embarrassment Modi had to suffer in hindsight. At least 17 people were killed during six days of mob violence targeting Mr Modi as the ‘butcher of Gujarat’, among other things. Over 100 people mostly Hefazat members were arrested.
During this crucial phase, from March 19, 1921 onwards to Aug 5, 2024, GOI seems to have gone into an inactive phase. No doubt diplomats on the spot were sending their alarming reports to Delhi.
But then why no major national protests were organised in India, or other suitably strong diplomatic measures, such as the recall of Indian diplomats, were not considered, let alone, organised? Between March 2021 and Aug 2024, what specific action was officially taken by GOI to counter the rising trend of Islamic extremism in neighbouring Bangladesh?
Surely it remains the duty of the NDA government to explain its apparent failure since March 2021 in terms of concrete action to counter the menacing growth of Islamic terrorism next door.
Bottom line: Pakistan, the ISI, Islamic extremists of Bangladesh, and Turkiye, not to mention the American backers of the BNP, registered their greatest political triumph against India on the Bangladeshi soil, in 2024. (IPA Service)
