By Dr. Gyan Pathak
November 4, 2024, the last day for withdrawal of nominations for the Vidhan Sabha Election in Maharashtra is marked by Election Commission of India’s (EC’s) orders of transfer of Maharashtra DGP and asking the chief secretary to send a panel of names of three IPS officers by 1 PM on November 5 for appointing new DGP. EC has acted after Congress and Shiv Sena (UBT) complaint, but the opposition is still worried over the misuse of power by NDA government in the state led by Shiv Sena (Shinde), even though Chief Election Commissioner has warned officials during the review meetings to remain impartial and also be perceived to be non-partisan during the elections.
This is a very significant politico-administrative development in the state where this election has become very intense and to be closely contested, which will not only decide who will emerge winner – the Mahayuti or the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) – and which of the Shiv Sena and NCP factions are de facto real, supported by the people of the state. Mahayuti is comprised of BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde), and NCP (Ajit Pawar) and is ruling the state nationally known as NDA. MVA is comprised of the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (Sharad Pawar) which is in opposition, nationally known as INDIA bloc. Election Commission has though recognized Shiv Sena (Shinde) as Shiv Sena an NCP (Ajit Pawar) as NCP after they parted their ways from their parent parties to join hands with the BJP and to become part of ruling establishment.
EC’s order has come after the opposition’s complaints, especially of the Congress alleging administrative bias and misuse of power by the ruling establishment against the Congress, the Shiv Sena (UBT), and the NCP (Sharad Pawar), citing alleged phone taping of opposition leaders by the DGP when she was posted as Police Commissioner and Commissioner of the state intelligence department.
The political scenario in the state has already been tense since 2019 Vidhan Sabha Election in the State, when no political party or alliance had won required number of seats in the 288-seat Vidhan Sabha, and hence the state was put under President’s rule for a brief period of 11 days. Thereafter, BJP formed its government with the help of NCP, but it survived only for 5 days. In a swift move, Shiv Sena formed its government displacing the BJP led government with formation of MVA. The Shiv Sena led MVA government survived for 2 years and 214 days. BJP got the Shiv Sena split and then Shiv Sena (Shinde) led Mahayuti government replaced MVA which is presently ruling the state. The last five years in Maharashtra thus witnessed one President rule and three Chief Ministers. BJP also got NCP divided and the splinter NCP (Ajit Pawar) joined hands with Mahayuti in power.
There were protracted battles among the splinter groups of Shiv Sena and the NCP. Shiv Sena (Shinde) and Shiv Sena (UBT) contested claiming they were original Shiv Sena. EC decided in favour of the Shinde faction and recognised it to be the real. Similarly, NCP (Ajit Pawar) faction was reconginsed by EC as real NCP while the founder of the party Sharad Pawar’s claim was denied and given recognition as NCP (Shardchandra Pawar). Both Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (Sharad Pawar) have alleged injustice to them and they are now in the people’s court and the election would decide which faction is the real Shiv Sena or NCP enjoying the larger support of the people.
Since Maharashtra is the richest state with Mumbai as the financial capital city of India, this election has also financial implication on the funding to the political parties and combinations. Therefore, Mahayuti and MVA allies are leaving no stone unturned to win the election and any cost. It has heightened the political temperature in the state and the situation has become tense. It is in this background the ruling Mahayuti in the state, and the BJP government at the centre have been alleged by the opposition of misusing their powers, investigating agencies, and administration, which was even taken note of by the Election Commission of India and ordered removal of officials including the top cop, DGP of the state.
The ruling Mahayuti is facing a tough challenge in the electoral battlefield while the opposition MVA has very high expectation of capitalizing on their performance in the recent Lok Sabha election in which it won 30 seats against Mahayuti’s 17. If we look at the result for the assembly segments, INDIA bloc parties had established their lead in 151 seats while NDA had leads on only 128 seats.
INDIA bloc seems to have upper hand in Western Maharashtra, Vidarbha, and Marathwada. It is weak in Mumbai and North Maharashtra but only marginally compared to NDA. However, NDA has clear upper hand in only Thane and Konkan, only one of the six regions in Maharashtra.
Both the Mahayuti and MVA have been struggling till the last in their seat sharing arrangement with their allies, but they have ultimately solved this problem, except in few of the constituencies where rebel candidates are in the electoral battlefield.
Maharashtra election will have great implication on not only the regional politics of the state where future of regional political parties are stake, but also on the national politics, and the future of the PM Narendra Modi led government. (IPA Service)