By Tirthankar Mitra
The deadly floods sweeping through Indonesia since last week mark a sobering moment for this region. It is a grim reminder that this region is long accustomed to the monsoon’s mood but rarely prepared for the nature’s most erratic turns.
More than 500 people have been confirmed dead while another five hundred has gone missing. Entire communities in Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra have been cut off from the world in a tragedy whose scale is staggering. But the destruction itself does not stand out. A disturbing pattern emerges across South and Southeast Asia.
Indonesia’s disaster was triggered by an exceptionally rare cyclone forming over the Malacca Strait. The fact is not to be lost sight of that this is a spot where tropical storms almost do not develop because of its proximity to the equator.
This is not the time to contemplate whether this is an exception or the beginning of a climatic change. The governments across the region should treat it as a wake-up call to reassess their assumption to the climatic behaviour.
A storm formed where it should not and moved slowly enough to empty its reservoirs over land and thereafter met an already vigorous north-east monsoon. The outcome is devastation on a scale Indonesian officials are still struggling to comprehend.
The post-flood images capture a society pushed to the brink. People waiting for food for days, bridges swallowed by mud and families trekking kilometres to find a mobile signal. The numbers underline the scale of the disaster. In sum, 1.4 million people have been affected while vast stretches of terrain is still inaccessible.
But this is by no means a standalone crisis. Cyclonic storm Ditwa struck Sri Lanka and more than three hundred and fifty people died in flood and mudslides in its wake. Half a metre of rain of rain fell over in just a few days as the skies opened up. Thailand also recorded at least 176 deaths after another rare system intensified the monsoon rains over the peninsula.
Taken together more than 1100 people have died across these three countries in the span of a week. These events are geographically scattered. But they are meteorologically connected. These are symptoms of a monsoon being distorted by overlapping tropical systems.
No single storm can be blamed on climate change. But the physics is clear. Warmer oceans supercharge the rainfall carried by cyclones and monsoons. The storms may not be more frequent. But when they arrive, they carry catastrophe. A strong vigilance is needed to be observed over the rare cyclones emerging near the equator.
They are not to be treated as an anomaly. They should be considered as a warning and steps taken to arrest the damage about to be wrought by nature. For countries in South Asia, including India, the lesson is unmistakable. Early warning systems, food reserves and emergency access routes need to be strengthened.
Such precaution is necessary not with an eye on hypothetical threats. It is for fast changing climatic realities. The sufferings of Indonesia, Sri Lanka and Thailand are pointers that climate risk has already drawn its own map. Time the governments in the region redraw theirs and match it. (IPA Service)
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