Prashant Kishor, political strategist and founder of Jan Suraaj, has declared with certainty that the National Democratic Alliance will suffer a “catastrophic loss” in Bihar, and that Nitish Kumar will not return as chief minister. Kishor also announced he will not contest the forthcoming state elections, citing a need to focus on organisational strategy.
Kishor argues that JD’s collapse was already underway in 2020, when the party’s seat tally plummeted to 43 amid the so-called “Chirag Paswan factor”—the decision of the Lok Janshakti Party to field candidates directly against JD. He now predicts a far steeper decline, estimating that JD may be reduced to as few as 25 seats in the 243-member assembly.
While the NDA has announced a 101–101 seat division between BJP and JD in Bihar, Kishor claims the alliance is in a state of “complete chaos,” with disagreements over which constituencies each party should contest. On the opposition side, he cautions that the INDIA bloc suffers its own fractures, notably tensions between the Rashtriya Janata Dal and Congress, and uncertainty over the status of the Vikassheel Insaan Party.
Kishor’s withdrawal from the contests has drawn sharp criticism from BJP leaders. Anurag Thakur derided him as a “general who fled before battle,” and allied voices suggest Kishor’s exit reflects his own calculations about uphill contest prospects. BJP’s Shehzad Poonawalla argued that Kishor’s business instincts and campaign experience have led him to accept defeat before entering the battlefield.
Within the NDA, voices optimistic about retaining power have responded defiantly. Union Minister Giriraj Singh forecast that the alliance could outperform its 2010 record by winning 225 seats, dismissing Kishor’s projection of fewer than 150 seats as a “Mungerilal dream.” Singh also mocked Kishor for not contesting, asserting he “knows he will not win.”
Sources close to JD confirm the party is attempting to counter anticipated losses through a slate heavy on newcomers. In its latest nomination list, JD included 30 first-time candidates among 57 names, even as it omitted Muslim representation entirely—an unusual departure from past practice. Party leaders argue the move is strategic reinvention rather than retreat.
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