By Ashis Biswas
Nepalese authorities were on the point of reviving talks with the Government of India regarding the participation of Nepali youths in the Agniveer scheme, days before the massive glacier meltdown along the Bhotekashi river claimed over 1200 lives (tentative count), on August 26. Nepali officials had earlier broken off an ongoing dialogue with India on the subject, protesting against certain norms in the new scheme for appointments in the Indian army. Their argument was, conditions laid down for joining Agniveer would hurt long-term interests of aspirant Nepali youths.
Reports from Kathmandu now suggest that Nepal has altered its stand during the past few months and would no longer object to Nepali youths joining the Indian army, following the new rules as outlined by GoI. This 180-degree turnaround in Kathmandu’s position, (if it really occurs) is the outcome of generally unfavourable geopolitical conditions prevailing worldwide, and the increasing pressure of domestic public opinion. Reference can be made to the recent major public demonstrations urging upon Kathmandu-based authorities to resume its dialogue with India at Pokhara and other places. There were high-level talks on the matter between Nepali top brass and recently visiting of top Indian army officials, according to Kathmandu-based media, but no details were provided.
Nepal’s strong initial reluctance to let unemployed youths, especially Gorkhas, join the Agniveer scheme was based on the old provisions of the 1947 bilateral agreement governing the post Partition recruitment of Gorkhas for the Indian and the British armies. Pensions and other facilities were ensured at the end of their designated service tenures for the soldiers.
The Agniveer scheme changed all that. It involved a four-year comprehensive training period for new recruits for the Indian Army. Among those selected, only 25 percent would be finally recruited selected to join the Army. There would be no special provision for the remaining 75 percent, no specific post-training job guarantee. Authorities now speak of subsequent priority for general security related assignments (including assignments in the private sector) for those not making the cut. This naturally remains an area of concern for applicants as a whole, not to mention the non-availability of post-training pensions.
In Nepal, as with most South Asian countries, millions of people in lakhs of families are dependent on remittances sent from abroad by formerly jobless aspiring youths, who are spread all over Europe, the US, the Middle East, and Canada. Many are employed in India as well, where cultural/religious affinities as well as eating habits etc are not very different from those of Nepal.
A large part of such remittances until recently came from Gorkha recruits serving in the Indian and British armies. Post 1947, special Gorkha infantry battalions have been created within the Indian Army. Current estimates vary widely regarding the number of Gorkhas, serving in India, but around 40,000 would be a safe estimate, according to people familiar with such matters. On average annually, until the Agniveer project was launched, it was assumed that around 15000 Nepalis, mostly Gorkhas, joined the army in India.
The new project made things more difficult in that suddenly there was no guarantee that the recruitment of Gorkhas would remain at the earlier levels. This could bring about a sharp decline in the remittances the Gorkhas sent back home. As for prospects at home, the creation of new jobs and providing steady employment for thousands of young educated job seekers who secured their higher education degrees annually, had always been difficult in relatively small, landlocked Nepal. The situation was somewhat better these days than before, with major hydropower projects and new tourism/related schemes planned for the future. But such opportunities would still not meet future needs of a growing population.
In this context, the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and later the war declared against Iran and Islamist ‘extremist’ organisations by Israel and the US, ironically came as a ray of hope for the jobless Nepalese youths. To a lesser extent, this applies to unemployed youths in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh as well, if the migration trends in these countries are studied in detail, to say nothing of the heft remittances that these countries traditionally earn through their citizens working abroad.
However, as both wars continued and disturbing reports came in about over 200 Nepalese getting killed in the Ukraine war, reportedly fighting against Ukraine, the trend of popular opinion changed in Nepal. Kathmandu authorities pressed for details from Russia about the Nepalese recruited to fight against Ukraine and killed in action, but the response was not encouraging.
Nepal then declared a ban on local youth joining such conflicts without official clearance. It also arrested a number of so-called recruiting agents who charged high commissions illegally from Nepalis who wanted to fight as mercenaries.
The attitude of common people started changing. Whether in the US-Iran conflict or for the Ukraine war, people demonstrated against the very idea of Nepali aspirant youths to go on risky assignments abroad.
From about three-four months ago, there were open demands from different sections of people in Nepal that local aspirants should join the Agniveer programme. The logic in favour was powerful and convincing: “In four years, our youth would earn over Rs 40/50 lakhs and above all, stay healthy and alive. They can look for fresh alternatives in future, and either rejoin their families or work abroad in less risky jobs,” prominent leaders told well-attended public meetings. The Government of Nepal was strongly urged to resume an official dialogue immediately, instead of walking away from and avoiding the Agniveer project altogether.
These sentiments were conveyed to visiting Indian army officials during their Pokhara visit.
It has been further argued that such income earned by the Agniveer recruits would ensure the flow of steady remittances to Nepal’s economy, effectively reducing joblessness and bringing at least short-term stability within the struggling Nepalese society for the time being. Such a general realisation among the common people has temporarily sidelined the habitually pro-Chinese section of Nepalese public/political opinion for now. (IPA Service)
