By Dr Arun Mitra
For some time now, the events that are fast occurring in South Asia one after other are a cause of concern. We witnessed terrorist violence in Pahalgam on 22nd April 2025 where 26 innocent people were killed. Now 15 people have died after a blast in a car near the Red Fort in Delhi on 10th November 2025. On the same day a blast killed 10 people in Islamabad. This is pointer to that the terrorists can kill anywhere at will. These incidents have raised serious questions about the security situation in the region. It is important because the internal security crisis can lead to external tensions as both India and Pakistan waste no time in blaming each other. These incidents add to tension and increase in rhetoric leading to escalation in the arms race. Such events also give space to the external forces to take advantage.
The US President Donald Trump has repeated the claim over 60 times that he “helped settle” tension between India and Pakistan this year; he threatened India, Pakistan with 350% tariffs if they didn’t end conflict; ‘Modi, Sharif called me’. “I’m not going to have you guys shooting nuclear weapons at each other, killing millions of people and having the nuclear dust floating over Los Angeles,”. He further claimed that he “got a call from Prime Minister Modi saying, ‘we’re done’. I said, ‘You’re done with what?’” Mr. Trump said and claimed Mr. Modi replied: “We’re not going to go to war.” Trumps utterances in a threatening manner are in a way direct intervention in the bilateral affairs of two sovereign countries. Astonishingly the Indian government has not issued any statement of denial.
A new US-China Economic and Security Review Commission report asserts Pakistan’s military success during the May 2025 conflict with India, and termed Pahalgam as an ‘insurgent attack’. The report also highlights China’s indirect support to Pakistan with logistics. No wonder Mr Trump invited the Pakistan Army Chief General Munir over lunch. They are also looking forward to increase relationship with economically crisis ridden Pakistan.
Another event that has taken place is the death sentence to erstwhile Prime Minister Hasina Wajed by a court in Bangladesh. Hasina Wajed is presently in India and the Bangladesh government has demanded that she be sent back to Dhaka. It is not an easy decision to be taken by the Indian government. Hasina is the daughter of Shaikh Mujib Ur Rehman who fought for the freedom of Bangladesh from Pakistan. History is witness to the atrocities committed by the Pakistan military in 1970-71.
I learnt during my visit to Dhaka in 2015 that the Pakistan army killed around 30 lakh people with specific focus on educated sections in the universities, colleges and medical institutions. Indian government helped the people’s revolt and ultimately the Pakistan army surrendered and Bangladesh came into existence. Since then India has very cordial relationship with Bangladesh. During this period Bangladesh developed economically and in many fields including the health surpassed India’s indicators of development.
Nevertheless the country had several problems like unemployment and inflation. This led to large scale protests by the students. Hasina Wajed failed to assess the gravity of the situation. Instead of talking to the students she resorted to extreme repression which killed large number of students. This gave space to the Islamic Fundamentalist groups. It is now amply clear that all this happened after she had denied an island to the US. They conspired and took full advantage of the situation and installed Md. Yunus as the care taker.
Thus now India has tension on both the eastern and western borders. We have trade relations with China but despite several meetings between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping, it is unlikely that relationship will become strategic.
Regarding extradition of Hasina Wajed the government should call all the political parties to hold discussions with them. It is not a time to be provoked or be jingoistic as any major armed conflict in the region would be catastrophic. It is unfortunate that in the pursuit of developing relationship with the US we abandoned the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). We also virtually made the SAARC dysfunctional. That is why the global South now does not look towards us. They are instead aligning with China.
Therefore it is time that we start thinking positively. We have to understand that we are three nuclear weapons possessing neighbours. Instead of rhetoric we should try to develop confidence with our neighbours. This is not going to be easy task because the Americans are getting more and more involved in India Pacific affairs. Their game plan is to sell arms in the region. The arms race must not to be allowed to escalate as it would be detrimental to the security and development of the region. It will drain away resources from education, health and other social needs towards arms race. (IPA Service)
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