By Asad Mirza
Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire deal; Israel, Qatar and the United States have said, after more than 460 days of a war that has devastated Gaza. Apparently, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, under intense American pressure had to convince a lot of his coalition partners to seal the deal. Additionally, this deal comes as a win for Donald Trump, even before he starts his next stint as the 47th American President.
The Israeli Prime Minister’s office was the last to confirm on early Friday morning (17 January 2025) that a deal has been agreed upon with Hamas. The agreement, which US officials expect to take effect Sunday (19 January), would see a pause in fighting in Gaza and lead to the phased release of hostages and Palestinian prisoners.
Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani had said on Wednesday that the ceasefire deal would come into effect on Sunday, but added that work on implementation steps with Israel and Hamas was continuing. Apparently, the American President-elect Donald Trump wanted the deal to be effective before his inauguration ceremony on Monday.
Trump had repeatedly indicated he would prefer to avoid inheriting the Israel-Hamas war as he prepared to take office on 20 January, and analysts say his impending return to the White House had injected renewed urgency into negotiations on a deal.
Reportedly, Trump and outgoing US President Joe Biden both took full credit following the announcement of the ceasefire deal Wednesday after the two American administrations worked together to mediate the truce.
The cooperation between the two camps was “almost unprecedented,” a senior Biden administration official said after the deal was clinched, made possible by a rare intersection of interests between bitter rivals who both saw an opening following Trump’s election victory.
The deal includes a temporary ceasefire that will also, finally, allow displaced Palestinians to return to their homes – though after Israel’s deliberate destruction campaign, which increased in ferocity, 86 Palestinians were killed in Israeli attacks after the announcement of the deal, and which has rendered many homes no longer habitable. But the Palestinians of the occupied territories wanted to return to their homeland as soon as possible and they welcomed the announcement with cheers and tears.
Reportedly, the peace deal consists of three phases. The first phase will last six weeks, and will involve a limited prisoner exchange, the partial withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza and a surge of aid into the enclave.
Israeli forces will reduce their presence in the Philadelphi Corridor, the border area between Egypt and Gaza, and then withdraw completely no later than the 50th day after the deal comes into effect.
Details of the second and third phases, though understood to be agreed to in principle, are to be negotiated further during the first phase. US President Joe Biden has said that the ceasefire will continue even if the negotiations on the second and third phases go beyond the initial six weeks of the first phase.
Critically, Israel has insisted that no written guarantees be given to rule out a resumption of its attacks once the first phase is complete and its civilian captives returned.
However, according to an Egyptian source cited by the Associated Press, the three mediators involved in the talks – Egypt, Qatar and the United States – have given Hamas verbal guarantees that negotiations will continue and that all three would press for a deal that would see the second and third stages implemented before an initial six-week window has elapsed.
If it is determined that the conditions have been met for a second phase, Hamas will release all the remaining living captives, mostly male soldiers, in return for the freeing of more Palestinians held in the Israeli prison system. In addition, Israel would initiate its “complete withdrawal” from Gaza.
However, these conditions, which have yet to be voted upon by the Israeli cabinet, are at odds with the stated positions of many of the far-right wing members of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s cabinet, which he relies upon for support, as well as Netanyahu’s own past positions, in which he has repeatedly used the presence of Hamas in Gaza to prolong the conflict.
The details of a third phase remain unclear. Should the conditions of the second stage be met, the third phase will see the bodies of the remaining captives handed over in return for a three- to five-year reconstruction plan to be conducted under international supervision.
Additionally, there is currently no agreement over who will administer Gaza beyond the ceasefire. The United States has pressed for a reformed version of the Palestinian Authority to do so.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday (14 January) said the post-war reconstruction and governance envisions the Palestinian Authority inviting “international partners” to stand up an interim governing authority to run critical services and oversee the territory.
Other partners, notably Arab states, would provide forces to ensure security in the short term, he said in a speech at the Atlantic Council, a Washington-based think tank. Israel has yet to suggest an alternative form of governance in Gaza.
There was staunch opposition to the deal from the far-right members of Netanyahu’s government, such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. They have been quite outspoken over the last week about their position on a deal, saying that it is bad for Israel’s national security and that they might not vote for it. They have gone so far as to say that they are willing to topple Netanyahu’s government if they do not get their way.
Further, a small number of families of the captives in Gaza are saying “No” to a deal. Many members of the Tikva (Hope) Forum fringe group, including settlers in the occupied West Bank, hold right-wing ideologies. They oppose the release of Palestinian prisoners in Israel as part of the deal, arguing that a partial release of Israeli hostages from Gaza is unacceptable. Instead, they insist that defeating Hamas through strong military action should be the top priority, and is the best strategy to retrieve hostages.
The moot question is if the ceasefire will survive beyond that first phase. It entails even more negotiations meant to begin within weeks. In those talks, Israel, Hamas, and the US, Egyptian and Qatari mediators will have to tackle the tough issue of how Gaza will be governed, with Israel demanding the elimination of Hamas.
Hostage release also is a tricky issue, as not all hostages are held by Hamas, so getting other militant groups to hand them over could be an issue. In exchange for bodies handed over by Hamas, Israel will free all women and children it has detained from Gaza since the war began on 7 October, 2023.
Furthermore, Israel has said it will not agree to a complete withdrawal until Hamas’ military and political capabilities are eliminated and it cannot rearm – ensuring Hamas no longer runs Gaza. Hamas says it will not hand over the last hostages until Israel removes all troops from everywhere in Gaza.
Trump had made a big issue of Middle East peace during his campaign and attacked Biden’s failure to secure a ceasefire. Steve Witkoff, his surprise appointment as Middle East envoy, was dispatched to Qatar on 22 November – less than three weeks after his election victory.
Witkoff, a close friend of Trump who is also known to Qatari officials through his real estate business, had suddenly become the chief negotiator in an unlikely negotiating team led by Biden’s top Middle East adviser Brett McGurk. In directing their envoys to co-ordinate, Biden and Trump both temporarily put aside their fierce personal and political rivalry – a small miracle in its own right.
However, in reality a lot hinges on what Netanyahu is able to deliver, in face of challenges from his coalition partners, if he is indeed able to deliver and the ceasefire lasts, then that too will not be a lesser miracle, given the ever-changing geopolitical dynamics of the Middle Eastern region. (IPA Service)