By Ashis Biswas
KOLKATA: With the resumption of bulk rail dispatch of goods/cargo from India to Bangladesh, the interim government has succeeded in restoring major supply chains to some areas, bringing much needed financial relief to people already hit by massive inflation. As Chief adviser to the current ruling regime, Dr M. Yunus has won a measure of local praise for keeping the administration going despite all pulls and pressures.
Hard pressed as he is, Dr Yunus starts with a major advantage. Unlike most Bangladeshi political leaders, his personal image remains unsullied. He also has time on his side. A complete restoration of functional normalcy in Bangladesh, a volatile country at the best of times, would take some time. This is understood and appreciated generally, which helps the new bunch of officials approach their formidable tasks with some confidence.
As expected, Dr Yunus has lost no time in seeking short as well as medium term, economic packages from international financial institutions like the IMF, the ADB and the WB, for Bangladesh. The violence-torn country will need at least an $8 billion infusion in the medium term. This will be in addition to the $4.1 billion assistance already advanced by these institutions a few months ago, when the Awami League (AL) was in power.
Dhaka-based officials estimate that during the last quarter of 2024, the prospects of fresh aid would be clearer, even as current negotiations continue.
Meanwhile, the large body of anti AL political opinion, as well as a section of officials in the new ruling dispensation, are upset with the Adanis. None other than Mr Gautam Adani himself has written to Dr Yunus, urging upon Dhaka to clear pending dues amounting to around $8 billion, for the supply of power from the Jharkhand -based unit in neighbouring India.
During the regime of the AL, an agreement was worked out between Bangladesh authorities and the Adanis, ensuring uninterrupted power supply from the Jharkhand unit over the next 25 years. The opposition alleged, not without reason, that the Indian company had won a major advantage as the cost of its power was the highest in Bangladesh!
During the last few months, Bangladesh had been paying its bills for imported power, but of late, its dues had mounted, until they reached the present high levels. The country owes money to other foreign suppliers as well and is currently discussing ways to settle the matter with concerned parties. While it is generally conceded that the amount pending with the Adanis is on the high side, there is considerable public annoyance over the haste shown by a big foreign firm over the matter of settling old dues.
The political leaders also feel that the agreement with the Adanis should also be scrapped forthwith once the dues are paid off, in view of the unusually high costs of supply. As might be expected ,the issue has been seized by anti Indian critics and others, as providing further evidence of how big Indian corporates rob common people in the name of providing them ‘services’!
As large quantities of essential items are being exported by India again, the brief breakdown in supplies, caused by vandalism by politicised goons targeting government property/assets at places, saw a steep price rise. This added to public distress, which had been already marked in Bangladesh, especially after the onset of the Covid19 corona pandemic.
The situation became difficult for Dhaka-based authorities, who are still in the process of settling down in their new found assignment as administrators. Informally, Bangladeshi diplomats played the game right. Some informally urged their Indian counterparts across the border to ensure that the movement of goods between the two countries remained functional at all costs. Clearly they were worried about the volatile political situation.
The breakdown in supplies and the resultant price rise in parts of Bangladesh further angered the people, already seething over bitter political tensions and recent blood-letting. Regardless of official reports seeking to play down the crisis, Dhaka-based electronic media showed people forced to pay taka 70-100 to buy a kilo of onions, whereas sugar, another essential item, sold for taka 150-plus n black market, according to some reports. The level of overall inflation reaching over 12%, breaking the record over the Last decade!
From India too, there were reports of how essential supplies of items from South India originally meant for dispatch by rail to Bangladesh had been diverted to other destinations through South Indian ports. Mob violence, with a distinct anti-India character broke out in several areas across the border. Even Indian consulates had been targeted by angry mobs. GOI and especially Railway authorities, concerned over the initial attacks against the minority Hindu community, had to deal carefully with new unexpected challenges.
Such traffic diversions, ironically, were profitable for India in that there was a growing demand from other countries for Indian items and unlike the rules of bilateral trade, buying and selling were easier. But the situation was totally different for Bangladesh. It could not even resort to fresh exports from other countries in the short term to meet mounting local demands for goods. The steady weakening of the Bangladeshi taka vis a vis the US dollar was also a cause of concern.
The main trouble was that governance in Bangladesh had suffered as the new set up, acting on instructions of Yunus, was itself involved in the process of takeover. Dhaka officials sent their official request to India seeking an early resumption of supplies by rail only on Aug 17, after breakdown of 47 days, following on the collapse of the AL-run government there.
For now, there is good news in that over 40,000 tonnes of essential supplies including coal, iron steel, foodgrains, fly ash, dry oil cakes, gypsum stones and natural gas have been sent from India. The ban on of rice, wheat and sugar export still remains. (IPA Service)