By Anjan Roy
With US president Donald Trump’s unique pursuit of peace by launching another war with Iran, he emerges as the top candidate for this year “Ignoble Peace Prize”. Trump has been crowing for the Noble Peace Prize for some time now and even slammed the Noble Committee for not awarding it.
And as if the Iran strike is also not enough, Trump has vehemently come on the side of Pakistan in its war with neighbour Afghanistan, praising Pak leadership. He is looking like seeking another opportunity for opening a war front in Afghanistan.
This has major consequences for India and Indian diplomacy has now a huge task of countering Trump moves. With these developments, the Trump war machine and Putin’s four year old aggression in Ukraine have overwhelmingly rejected Indian views of contemporary diplomacy.
Oil prices are spiking and as the latest war runs into its third day, attritions are mounting across the broad. Iran has targetted countries in the region which have housed US bases. Iran has selectively hit the regional airports thereby throwing total confusion among airlines across the world.
The regional countries had sought to diversify beyond the oil and gas by developing its tourism industries and nurturing international transit hubs for goods and cargoes. These have now been threatened and both aviation and tourism industries are suffering blows from which they might not be able to emerge for years.
For India, these developments so close at hand, with a failed state of Pakistan as the immediate neighbour, could spell serious threats. Already, the rupee has been again hit and it reached a new low at over Rs91 to a dollar. Oil cots would also mount, inflicting some more burden on external payments. Above all, India’s viewpoint on global affairs has been roundly repudiated.
When the war in Ukraine was launched, Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, had stridently stated that “ours is not a time for war and conflicts; ours is a time for diplomacy and solutions through dialogue”. India has to be watchful of the conflicts nearer home.
The American strikes on Iran has on its first day widened into a Middle East’s regional war. In response to American strikes on Iranian targets, Iran has fired its missiles to American bases in UAE, Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait. Streets in Doha and Dubai to Manama are resounding with sounds of blasts from Iranian missile strikes.
Bases in Iraq have also been targeted and the US president is warning that there might be casualties among Americans. Meanwhile, America’s NATO allies in Europe have remained very quiet without any express support for the American unilateral strikes.
With these latest developments, India has to keep watch whether the US was launching another of its geo-political games in the entire region. Trump has been talking about US needing the Bagram airport in Afghanistan. The airport at Bagram has been developed by the US and is believed to be a strategic point for control and surveillance of Middle East as well as South Asia.
With the latest round of hostilities between the two countries, US might be looking for an opening for its play for acquiring the Bagram airport from the hands of the Afghans. Trump has been talking about US regaining control of Bagram and he was emphatic that the airport should never have been given over to the Afghans.
However, even if the Americans plan any such attempt to take over the Bangram airport forcibly from the Afghans, it might be sleepwalking into a huge trap and American casualty numbers and its costs could be mountainous. Russians and thereafter the Americas have paid the highest prices for their misadventures in Afghanistan as the doughty Afghan fighters resist any intrusions with dogged determination and their guerrilla ambushes in which the dispersed fighters are aided by their topography.
The attacks have certainly claimed some high level casualties for the Iranians. The Iranian authorities have admitted that the chief of the IRGC, the much touted elites corps of the country, was killed in airstrike. Iranian defence minister has also been killed.
However, high level official spokespersons from Iran have lights discarded the losses saying that some losses have been sustained but these should not hobble Iranian fighting capacity. The attacks have also targeted the place of supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, but hhis whereabouts are still a secret.
Ground level reports from Tehran and other cities in Iran report of huge noises of explosions and bombings. The principal highway from out of Tehran are completely choked with heavy traffic of residents trying to flee the capital city for fear of air strikes.
The destructions and suffering from the American strikes are devastating and there are possibilities of further embroiling other countries in these conflicts. The developments usher in an era of complete uncertainty. (IPA Service)
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