By Nitya Chakraborty
France’s centre-right coalition government is once again facing a major political crisis as the Prime Minister Francois Bayrou has called for a confidence vote on September 8 in Parliament after his fragile coalition supporters rejected his budget proposals to revive the economy. Both the Left combination and the far right National Rally (RN) of Marie Le Pen have opposed the budget. Even the Socialist Party members who have given support to the coalition backed by the President are opposing the budget proposals.
As a result, the Prime Minister Bayrou is likely to lose the confidence vote on September 8. This will lead to the other political parties demanding the holding of fresh general elections to elect a new government. This was the second time after July 2024 general elections that the French government had to face confidence vote in Parliament. In December 2024, the then prime minister Michel Bernier, also a nominee of President Macron lost the no-confidence motion after the outside ally far right RN withdrew its support to the coalition government.
The root of the present political crisis lies in the manner in which the President Macron is handling the government formation refusing to take into account the verdict of the July 2024 general elections. In that elections, the Left combination known as New Popular Front got the highest number of seats- a total of 182 in a house of 577, followed by President Macron’s Party getting 163 and the far right RN 143 seats. The NPF was entitled to form the government as the leading combination but President Macron made all efforts to help in the formation of a government excluding the Left.
As a result, more than three months were taken in forming a fragile coalition ministry which got the support of the far right RN from outside. This Macron inspired coalition has always been fragile and dependent on the far right. The NPF has been consistently demanding its resignation but the government continues with outside support of RN and a section of the Socialists. This arrangement got a jolt this week with the socialists declaring their opposition to the confidence motion tabled by Prime Minister Bayrou meaning that the prime minister has lost majority. If this line up continues and there is no intervention in the next ten days, the Bayrou ministry will fall on September 8.
For the French people, the austerity measures imposed by the French government under President Macron are issues of concern to the middle class and the workers. President Macron who won his second term in 2022 presidential elections will remain only till 2027 as he is not entitled to contest for the third term as per the French constitution. He has warned against complacency among the French people saying the years of abundance are over. President has targeted the subsidies and the retirement benefits which the French people have been enjoying for decades.
This time, Prime Minister Bayrou’s minority government plans to reduce the budget deficit from last year’s 5.8 per cent of GDP to 4.6 per cent in 2026. This will need lot of cuts in subsidies enjoyed by the French people. Both the Left and the far right have opposed the budget proposals. Supporters of President Macron as also many others of the present coalition camp are suggesting dialogue with the Socialists whose support is crucial for the survival of the Bayrou minority government. Both Left and far right have their political reasons. So they are firm on their stand and vote against the government on September 8. Only the Socialists do not gain from any fall of the government. If the socialists agree after some budget adjustments, the present government may be saved though it will still remain vulnerable to the attacks by the two opposing formations.
In a similar situation on December 4, 2024, no-confidence motion brought by an alliance of left-wing parties under New Popular Front was supported by MPs from Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration, far-right, National Rally. A total of 331 lawmakers — a clear majority — voted to bring down the government. The defeat of Barnier led coalition was a personal defeat of President Emanuel Macron who defied the mandate of the latest national elections by not inviting the largest group in the new National assembly the NFP.
In the July 2024 elections, out of the total of 577 seats in the national assembly, the left coalition NPF got 182 seats, followed by President Macron’s coalition Ensemble Alliance 163 seats and the far right National Rally (RN) led by Marie Le Pen 143 seats. The other right parties got 68 seats, the other left 11 and fringe parties got ten seats. Earlier in the run off to the national elections in July, President Macron instructed his supporters to have an understanding with the Left in many seats to defeat unitedly the far right candidates. This was done with the stated objective that the far right will not be allowed to take over power in France. This worked well leading to the putting of the surging far right to the third place in the newly elected national assembly.
But soon after the elections, President Macron took an ideologically opposite turn. Instead of opting for an anti-right coalition led by NFP and supported by his Ensemble alliance to run the new government, he explored the possibility of a non-Left coalition ignoring the people’s mandate given in the national elections in July 2024.Macron invited the Conservative leader veteran Michel Barnier to form the government with the outside support of the far right RN.
From day one of the Barnier government, it was a prisoner in the hands of Marie Le Pen. It was known that the firebrand neo fascist will topple the government at her suitable political timing. She took the plunge on the budget issue and supported the Left sponsored no confidence motion on December 4 night in the national assembly. The same scenario is being repeated on September 8 but the difference is that in December 2024, it was no confidence motion but on September 8, it will be confidence motion.
Le Pen has a roadmap. She thinks that the present political crisis has helped her in improving her political base at the cost of the President Macron’s party. The far right supremos wants to get a good part of the eroding popular base of Macron and then she will be facing the next presidential elections in 2027. According to her analysis, the Left and Macron can not work together so a new alternative without far right support is not possible.
But the political observers who are concerned at the rise of neo fascism in France through Le Pen’s NR say that this is the right time for President Macron to allow the NFP to form the new government with the support from his Ensemble Alliance. That is the only option now to have a stable pro-people government. Otherwise, the continuing crisis will only help the far right Le Pen in progressing further in her goal of achieving power in France. The general elections in France can be held after a gap of one year from the previous elections. So that way, there is no problem in holding another general elections in September or October this year to ensure the formation of a stable government. It is to be seen what steps President Macron takes after September 8 confidence vote in the event of the fall of the Bayrou ministry. (IPA Service)
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