By Satyaki Chakraborty
Bolivia, a small nation of 7.9 million voters in Latin America is going to the Presidential elections on August 17 this year with the ruling left wing Movement for Socialism(MAS) vertically split giving a big opportunity to the right wing opposition forces to defeat the ruling Left wing regime. Both present President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales, the two pillars of MAS are out of the elections for different reasons, but their absence in the poll battle has given a big jolt to the Left wing combination.
As per the Bolivian electoral rules, the first round of Presidential elections will be held on August 17 but if no candidate receives more than 50 per cent of the vote or 40 per cent with at least a 10 point advantage over the runner-up, a run off will be held on October 19 this year. The new President will be sworn in on November 8 this year. Present President Luis Arce is ruling since 2020. He opted out of the Presidential race this year due to his low popularity rating while another MAS contestant, the former President Evo Morales was barred by the constitutional authority from contesting the elections for the fourth time. He was President of Bolivia from 2006 to 2019.
Of the eight main candidates on the presidential race, center-right candidate Samuel Doria Medina of the Unity Alliance and conservative ex-President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, of the Liberty Alliance, are front runners as of the first week of August in the opinion polls Aside from other opposition contenders, they face off against various figures from the left, including the MAS candidate Eduardo del Castillo, backed by incumbent Arce, and Senate president Andrónico Rodríguez, a former Morales protégé now supported by the Popular Alliance, who leads left-of-center forces in the polls.
For the last two decades, Bolivia has been led by the Left under the umbrella organization of various left forces named as Movement for Socialism(MAS). Since 2005, MAS has dominated elections to become Bolivia’s hegemonic governing party. Born out of indigenous and trade union activism in the country’s highlands, it gained enough support to hold sway—and at times two-thirds majorities—in the Legislative Assembly, in addition to avoiding runoffs in each presidential election since Morales first won in 2005. This includes the 2020 election, when Luis Arce, Morales’ former economy minister (2009–2017, 2019), surprised pollsters by winning the first round with 55 percent of the vote share after polling at around 40 percent.
This golden period of MAS rule got threatened in 2024 after the former President Morales announced his intension to contest for the Presidential elections in 2025 which the present President and leader of the same party opposed. The MAS was split last year and Morales emerged as stronger in the battle for party supporters. Luis Arce was eligible for contesting for the second time but he opted out since he felt that he lacked the support of MAS organisation at base level to win the elections. But eventually, Morales also could not contest due to the constitutional position.
Out of the eight main candidates, no one has been able to cross the figure of 25 per cent in the opinion polls. Doria Medina is representing an opposition bloc, known as the Unity Alliance. The businessman, who led the country’s biggest cement manufacturer and owns Burger King franchises, served as minister of planning (1991–1993) under President Jaime Paz Zamora (1989–1993). His coalition includes former President Carlos Mesa (2003–2005) and far-right governor of Santa Cruz department, Luis Fernando Camacho (2021–2024).
Doria Medina proposes mending Bolivia’s economic crisis by shuttering state entities he has called “useless,” implementing austerity measures, and lifting price controls. He wants to create a $5 billion stabilization fund to aid this transition until exports recover..He is a votary of free business and no freebies. The big concessions given by the MAS government will be under threat if Medina wins, say the Bolivian political analysts.
Polling second in the opinion polls, Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga is seeking to return to the presidency for a full term. Elected as vice president on a ticket with Hugo Banzer in 1997, he assumed the presidency for 12 months after Banzer, who was also a military dictator in the 1970s, stepped down due to medical issues. Since then, Quiroga has run for president three times, worked at the IMF and World Bank, and served briefly in the interim administration of Jeanine Áñez in 2019 and 2020. Quiroga has announced his programme focusing on privatizing state enterprises and reform of judiciary.
The leading candidate among those considered left-of-center or progressive, polling around 8 to 12 percent, is 36-year-old Senate President Andrónico Rodríguez. He grew up in a small, coca leaf-producing town in Cochabamba. After studying political science at Universidad Mayor de San Simón, he took up leadership positions in Bolivia’s influential coca farmers’ trade union federation, eventually rising to the vice presidency of the group under Morales and then the presidency in 2019 during the interim Áñez administration. Rodríguez is completing his first term in the Senate.
Formerly of the MAS, but now running independently with the Popular Alliance, many viewed Rodríguez as Morales’ heir due to his rural Cochabamba origins and trade union trajectory. However, Morales and his supporters have labeled Rodríguez’s presidential run a betrayal. For his part, Rodríguez has distanced himself from both the former president and the incumbent MAS government, attempting to represent a younger, more moderate vision of the left that can appeal to the MAS’ traditional social base and beyond.
To address the country’s current financial downturn, Rodríguez’s economic program puts forward austerity measures the document describes as “neither neoliberal nor antisocial.” These include cutting back on personnel spending within the public sector, establishing an emergency fiscal rule to limit recurrent expenditure, and replacing universal subsidies with need-based subventions, as well as gradually getting rid of the longstanding fuel subsidy.
His agenda also outlines intentions to provide credit incentives for export sectors while promoting an import substitution strategy to reduce foreign exchange spending on imports. Rodríguez calls for a “sovereign industrialization” of the mining sector, with plans to establish state production of key metals such as lithium, silver, and copper, including manufacture of batteries and other components needed for renewable energy.
On August 17, Bolivians will also elect all of the members of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. It is expected that a majority of these seats will reflect the presidential race. All 36 senators and 60 of the 130 deputies are elected proportionally based on the votes each party’s presidential candidate gets. Then, 63 deputies are elected directly from single member districts and there are seven seats reserved for indigenous representatives. All terms are five years.
Ten days before the polling day, the Bolivian political analysts are predicting a run off as so far the front running two right candidates have not agreed to any deal. The scattered Left has some chance only the Left votes rally around the most probable candidate. Many think that Rodriguez can emerge among the first two if the majority of Left and underprivileged rally behind him. But this uncertain situation for MAS would not have arrived if the Organisation would not have split. For the Latin American Left, they will face a setback if any the Left loses. (IPA Service)
