By Ashok Nilakantan Ayers
NEW YORK: Nearly a year into President Trump’s second term, the political math has become unforgiving. His approval rating has collapsed to levels not seen since the chaotic final months of his first presidency. Congressional Republicans face a double-digit deficit heading into next year’s midterm elections.
And perhaps most ominously for the GOP, the erosion is coming from within—Trump’s own voters are abandoning him over the one issue he promised to fix: the cost of living.
The latest Fox News poll (generally considered to be favourable to Trump) shows Trump’s overall approval at 41%, with economic approval at a career low of 38%. But that survey is hardly an outlier. An NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released this week put his approval at just 39%—the lowest of his second term—while a Reuters/Ipsos survey showed it at 38%, down nine points since January. An AP-NORC poll found only 33% approve of his management of the federal government, down from 43% in March.
The consistency across polling is striking. So is the trend: Trump began his second term in January with 47% approval. Ten months later, he’s underwater by 15 to 20 points depending on the survey. Among Republicans, his support has cratered from 91% to 79% in Emerson College polling, and from 92% to 86% in the Fox News survey—a fracture in the base that historically portends midterm catastrophe.
“Nearly one year after he was elected, President Trump’s approval has flipped,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling. What’s most revealing isn’t just the overall decline but where it’s concentrated: among the non-college white voters, independents and working-class families who powered his 2024 comeback and now report feeling economically squeezed once again.
The proximate cause of Trump’s collapse is straightforward: Voters believe prices have risen significantly since he took office, and they’re blaming him for it.
The Fox News poll shows 85% of Americans say grocery prices have increased in the past year—with 60% saying they’ve risen “a lot.” Seventy-eight percent report higher utility bills. Two-thirds cite increased healthcare and housing costs. Even on gasoline, where Trump once enjoyed political dominance, 54% say prices have climbed.
These perceptions cut across party lines. Republicans, Democrats and independents all report feeling the pinch. Among voters earning under $50,000 annually, 79% rate their personal finances negatively. Young voters, Black and Hispanic Americans, and non-college workers—demographics Trump targeted with his populist message—express significantly more economic distress today than a year ago.
What makes these numbers politically lethal is that 42% of Trump’s own 2024 voters now hold him responsible for current economic conditions. That figure represents a remarkable crack in partisan loyalty: In a polarized era when Republicans typically rally around their president, more than two in five Trump supporters are publicly acknowledging that his policies have failed them.
“People are struggling to afford necessities and blaming those in charge,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw. “What’s unusual is seeing Republicans lose political ground on a problem they used to dominate.”
For congressional Republicans, the numbers are apocalyptic. The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll shows Democrats holding a 14-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot—the largest gap since November 2017, at the same point in Trump’s first term. Democrats went on to win 40 House seats the following year.
Independents currently favour Democrats by 33 points, a stunning reversal from a year ago when the parties were tied on the congressional ballot. The Emerson poll found 44% of Democrats report being “very enthusiastic” about voting in 2026, compared with far lower Republican motivation. Democrats also lead Republicans on the core economic issues that matter most to voters: affordability, healthcare costs and wages.
Republicans maintain advantages on border security, illegal immigration and crime—but these issues rank far below cost-of-living concerns in voter priorities. When asked what Trump’s top priority should be, 58% of voters in the NPR poll said lowering prices. No other issue came close. “The American people—it’s our pockets that are getting ripped apart,” said Nicole Stokes, a Dallas voter who supported Trump last year but now questions his priorities.
Columbia University political scientist Robert Shapiro noted that Trump’s approval “did not improve with his success in the Gaza peace settlement and in the destruction of a significant portion of Iran’s nuclear capability. He and the Republicans are not in a strong position heading into the next election year.”
Which raises the central question: Why is Trump doubling down on policies that are manifestly failing him politically? Three explanations present themselves, none mutually exclusive.
First, Trump genuinely doesn’t understand how tariffs, supply-chain disruptions and trade tensions affect consumer prices. His public statements suggest he views tariffs as a cost imposed on foreign countries rather than on American consumers and businesses. When pressed on inflation, he reflexively blames Joe Biden, despite now being a year into his own term.
This explanation is supported by Trump’s admission that “campaign advisers told him prices were the most important issue” but “he always felt it was really immigration.” If the president fundamentally misread what voters cared about, he may be implementing the wrong policy agenda entirely.
Second, Trump is psychologically incapable of admitting error or changing course. Having campaigned on tariffs and “America First” trade policy, he cannot acknowledge that these policies are contributing to the very inflation he promised to eliminate. To do so would require conceding that his critics were right—an admission his personality structure makes nearly impossible.
Senior Republican officials privately describe the White House as resistant to economic data that contradicts the president’s narrative. “He hears what he wants to hear,” one GOP governor said on condition of anonymity. “Telling him the tariffs are hurting working families is like telling him water isn’t wet.”
Third, Trump and his inner circle inhabit an information bubble where their policies are working. They point to strong job numbers and corporate profits while ignoring household economic pain. They cite anecdotal evidence of manufacturing reshoring while dismissing systematic polling showing voter discontent.
In this view, Trump isn’t lying about his policies working—he genuinely believes they are. He’s convinced that if he stays the course, voters will eventually recognize his economic genius. The problem is that voters are experiencing the opposite reality, and their patience has expired.
The political peril extends beyond national polling. At least 34 governors have warned the White House that federal tariffs, supply-chain bottlenecks and infrastructure costs are straining state budgets. Even reliably Republican states that supported Trump by double digits now report that elevated prices have exhausted reserve funds built during the post-pandemic boom.
Energy-dependent states cite price volatility linked to the administration’s export restrictions. High-cost housing markets in California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida say the affordability crisis has accelerated in 2025. Midwestern manufacturing states report job market uncertainty as firms struggle to reconcile Trump-era tariffs with automation investments. “Our voters were promised relief,” a senior Republican governor said. “They’re getting the opposite.”
The government shutdown that consumed much of the fall deepened the damage. Sixty-two percent of voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of the crisis, and 45% of families reported experiencing hardship. The shutdown drained whatever political goodwill remained from Trump’s second-term honeymoon.
Trump does have time to recover. A year before midterm elections, three to five points of approval can make the difference between losing 20 House seats and losing 40. The president has reportedly mused about sending $2,000 government checks to most Americans—a transparent bid to buy back voter support.
But political gravity is unforgiving. Trump has never cracked 50% approval in office. He’s currently at 40% or below in most surveys. The historical pattern is clear: When a president’s approval drops below 45%, his party gets wiped out in midterms. Trump crossed that threshold in November and shows no sign of reversing course.
The administration argues that inflation inherited from Biden will eventually ease as tariffs take effect and domestic investment intensifies. That may be true. But voter perception trails economic reality by months or years. What matters politically isn’t where the economy is heading—it’s where voters think it’s heading. And right now, they think it’s heading in the wrong direction.
“What’s very striking,” Shapiro observed, “is that Trump’s approval rating did not improve” with foreign policy successes. “He and the Republicans are not in a strong position heading into the next election year.”
The tragedy for Republicans is that Trump’s economic wounds are self-inflicted. Unlike external shocks such as pandemics or financial crises, tariff policy is a choice. Trade tensions with allies are a choice. Prioritizing immigration crackdowns over cost-of-living relief is a choice.
Trump had the political capital in January to pursue a different agenda. He could have focused relentlessly on lowering prices through deregulation, energy policy and targeted interventions. Instead, he pursued the policy preferences that felt right to him, even as polling data screamed that voters wanted something else.
Whether driven by ignorance, ego or self-delusion, the result is the same: Trump is committing what looks increasingly like political suicide, and taking congressional Republicans with him. The 2026 midterms are still a year away, but the polls suggest Democrats are positioned for their best performance since the Tea Party wave election that swept Republicans from power in 2018.
For a president who obsesses over poll numbers and winning, Trump seems remarkably blind to the electoral disaster he’s creating. That may be the most mystifying aspect of all: He’s doing this to himself, and he either doesn’t know it or doesn’t care. Either way, the Republican Party is likely to pay the price. (IPA Service)
