By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Electoral battles in J&K and Haryana had been really tough for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Minister of Home Amit Shah and the BJP, but the coming months will be politically even more challenging for them in another three sates – Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Delhi. INDIA bloc Maharashtra and Jharkhand have lately been emerging stronger than expected, while AAP in Delhi is now in very upbeat mood especially after its leader Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia were released on bail granted by Supreme Court of India with very harsh comment against the Enforcement Directorate (ED), which has unmasked Modi-Shah duo in public eye.
The terms of Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha will be expiring on November 26, 2024, Jharkhand on January 1, 2025, and NCT Delhi on February 23, 2025. The Lok Sabha Election 2024 results announced on June 4, 2024, shows BJP’s political clout on the wane in Maharashtra and Jharkhand both in terms of seats and share of votes. Though the BJP won all the 7 Lok Sabha seats in Delhi, its vote share declined by 2.5 per cent, though the AAP Supremo remained in jail (barring for a few days when he was given interim bail to campaign during the election).
As for Maharashtra is concerned – the state has tremendous economic and political relevance in India. It is not only economic capital of the country but also sends second largest number of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha members. It has 48 Lok Sabha seats, only next to Uttar Pradesh that sends 80 Lok Sabha MPs. Lok Sabha results 2024 have shaken the confidence of the BJP since had lost 14 Lok Sabha seats compared to 2019 election. The party had contested 28 seats but could win only 9. It’s vote share has also declined by 1.66 per cent to 26.18 per cent.
More worrisome aspect for the Modi-Shah duo is that the BJP’s allies in NDA also performed badly. Shiv Sena (Shinde) had contested 15 seats but could win only 7, while its vote share declined by 10.55 per cent to just 12.95 per cent. NCP (Ajit) also performed badly which contested 4 seats but could win only 1 seat, and lost its 3 seats that the party leaders have won in 2019.
As for entire NDA is concerned, its vote share declined by 7.79 per cent, the Lok Sabha result 2024 shows. Its vote share was only 43.55 per cent, and in terms of seats it could win only 17 seats, which was 24 less compared to the Lok Sabha election 2019.
There are other recent political developments that is ominous for the BJP and NDA. Infightings are turning bitter than ever before – both within the BJP, with its allies, and within NDA parties. INDIA bloc and its allies have clear advantage as of now. There are 228 seats in the Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha.
NDA in Maharashtra is called Mahayuti which included BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde), NCP (Ajit), MNS, PJP, RSP, JSS, and RPI (Athawale). INDIA bloc in the state is know by the name Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) which is comprised of Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), NCP (SP), CPI(M), SP, PWPI, and SWP.
In Jharkhand, Lok Sabha election 2024 result shows that NDA’s seats and votes share are on the decline. BJP had lost its three seats that it had won in 2019 and could win only 8 seats while it had contest 13. BJP’s votes share also suffered greatly by 7 per cent and declined to 44.60 per cent. Though its ally AJSU could win one seat it also lost its votes share by 1.78 per cent. Most worrisome aspect of the result was that BJP lost in all 5 seats reserved for Scheduled Tribe. After the Arrest of JMM leader Hemant Soren, BJP is generally seen by tribes as anti-tribe party. Hemant is now out on bail on ED’s money laundering case against him and is leading the INDIA bloc in the state called Mahagathbandhan with greater vigour than before. There are 81 seats in Jharkhand Vidhan Sabha, and presently INDIA bloc seems on the stronger wicket. More importantly, middle class and large number of OBCs are also talking against the BJP.
In Delhi, with the release of AAP leaders Arvind Kejriwal and Manish Sisodia on bail, they have started their political campaign against the BJP with renewed vigour. They are telling the people, by quoting Supreme Court’s harsh comment against the ED, how they have been framed by Modi government, and how the powers of the state government to work for the welfare of the people have been curtailed by their representative Lieutenant Governor.
Though there is not INDIA bloc for the Delhi Vidhan Sabah election, BJP will have to deal with a very challenging political fight to be offered by AAP, the party that has been rendering very humiliating defeats to BJP in every Vidhan Sabha Elections in the last decade. Delhi Vidhan Sabha has 70 seats.
All these indicate a further clipping of political clout of Modi-Shah duo that has begun since the announcement of Lok Sabha Election 2024 result on June 4 – both in terms of inner party and intra-party. We have been hearing open resistance against their authoritarian attitudes from leaders within BJP, and from the leader of opposition. Coming months may speed up the process. (IPA Service)