By Dr. Gyan Pathak
NDA has swept the Bihar Vidhan Sabha Election 2025, and INDIA block, which is known as Mahagathbandhan (MGB) in the state has cut a sorry figure. Right from the beginning of the counting of votes, NDA allies took lead over the MGB allies and maintained their lead up to the last. Final figures are yet to be released by the Election Commission of India, but the trend clearly suggests that bringing LJP(RV) in the NDA fold worked wonderfully in its favour, both in terms of seats and share of votes. Despite no loss to the respective support bases, MGB allies incurred heavy loss of seats.
Let us have a look at the provisional figures of vote shares. NDA allies in the election were – BJP, JD(U), LJP(RV), HAM, and RLM. According to the provisional figure at 2:35 PM BJP’s vote share was 20.92 per cent, JD(U)’s 18.96 per cent, and LJP(RV)’s 5.21 per cent. In 2020 Bihar Vidhan Sabha Election, the vote share of BJP was 19.46 per cent and JD(U)’s 15.39 per cent when LJP was not part of the NDA alliance. LJP had contested alone and was able to bag a vote share of 5.66 per cent.
The vote share clearly suggests that LJP(RV), though contested in alliance with BJP and JD(U), its support base is almost intact. BJP and JD(U) could not increase the votes share of the LJP(RV), which means their voters were not transferred to the LJP(RV).
However, due to LJP(RV) coming into NDA fold, BJP and JD(U) were able to increase their vote shares. BJP seems to have increased about 1 per cent of votes while JD(U) seems to have gained 3.5 per cent more votes in 2025 compared to 2020 election.
We clearly see that total vote share of the LJP(RV) in 2025 election is around 5.21 per cent while combined increase of vote share of BJP and JD(U) is around 4.5 per cent. It seems that LJP(RV) votes have also transferred to two other NDA allies – HAM and RLM.
VIP was in NDA in 2020 Vidhan Sabha election, and had got 1.52 per cent of votes share. VIP switched alliance and joined MGB in 2025. It could not make any impact, neither for itself, not for the MGB.
Now let us have a look at the emerging pattern of MGB and its allies. MGB contested the 2025 Bihar election under the leadership of RJD. The vote share of RJD is hovering around 22.77 per cent. In the 2020 election, RJD’s votes share was 23.11 per cent. It clearly shows that RJD’s vote share is almost intact, and can’t be considered any significant loss in its support base.
As for Congress, its vote share seems to be around 8.44 per cent in 2025 election. In 2020 Bihar elections, its vote share was 9.48 per cent. It means Congress has lost about one per cent of its support base. It’s a considerable erosion in Congress support base in the state, and perhaps its performance is going to be worst in the state both in terms of vote share and number of seats won.
CPI(ML)L is one of the key allies in MBG, which had a votes share of 3.16 per cent in 2020 Bihar election. In 2025, its vote share is hovering around 3.07 per cent. It is clear that CPI(ML)L has also not suffered significant loss in terms of its vote share. As for other Left parties, CPI’s vote share is around 0.68 per cent and CPI(M)’s votes share is around 0.63 per cent, as against their respective votes share in 2020 were 0.83 per cent and 0.65 per cent.
The vote share in 2025 clearly suggests that MGB primarily lost because the loss in support base of Congress. One of the interpretations of this may be that the policies of the Congress and its leadership have not attracted but repulsed voters in Bihar.
By 3:20 PM, at the time of writing this,, it is clearly seen that neither BJP, nor JD(U) became more popular than in 2020, and their increase in votes share are chiefly on account of transfer of LJP(RV)’s votes to these parties, that is the transfer of Dalit votes to them. It was simply the result of electoral arithmetic.
If the vote share of respective parties is of any indication, the NDA has successfully navigated the anti-establishment sentiment prevailing in a large section of people in Bihar. It is still unclear, how much deletion of voters and addition of new votes during Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of Electoral Roll have impacted the election outcome.
Given the trend of the vote share of the respective parties, which is by and large on the same line as in 2020, one can conclude that SIR has had little impact on the political fortune of the MGB or INDIA bloc. MGB’s loss can be ascribed to the inabilities of its allies to contest unitedly. In as many as 12 seats, MGB’s allies were contesting with each other.
What is then the message emanating from Bihar? BJP’s popularity is not rising. The rise in its vote share can be ascribed to its ability to form strategic alliances with other political parties, which makes it capable to topple the INDIA bloc’s apple cart. No political party in the INDIA bloc has shown its ability so far to forge a perfect opposition alliance. Quarrel within the INDIA bloc, even contesting each other, makes it to pay a heavy political cost, that can be seen in the outcome of Bihar election. NDA leadership has shown, how on give and take basis, differences among allies can be resolved. INDIA bloc lost without losing support base is a lesson to be learnt for the opposition. (IPA Service)
