By Dr. Gyan Pathak
PM Narendra Modi led Central government and Election Commission of India (ECI) are being perceived by the electors of Bengal as disruptor of Mamata Banerjee’s and her TMC’s political campaign. Anti-Mamata people are happy to see that Central investigating agencies like Enforcement Directorate (ED) has acted against I-PAC, which has been looking after the political campaign of TMC; that ECI has virtually taken over the state administration and deployed large number of armed forces as well as deleted large number of voters who were supposed to be TMC’s support base; and that the officers are delaying her flights and even denying to hold election meetings on strategic places and dates. Though such disruptions give operational and campaign advantage to BJP, its impact is slowly and steadily going against it. General electors have started sympathizing with Mamata, and seen m0bilising behind her, offsetting the BJP’s narrative of corruption and misgovernance against her.
Slowly and steadily, the dominant narrative in West Bengal has turned into Delhi vs Bengal, Outsiders vs Bengalis, and outsider’s control vs Bengal’s identity. The election campaign for the first phase of West Bengal is going to end n Tuesday, 48 hours before the voting scheduled on April 23. The second phase of election will be held on April 29. April 21 is also the last date, on which the names cleared by the Tribunals under SIR process, will be allowed to vote as per the order of the Supreme Court of India.
Mamata Banerjee and her party leaders are crying foul and alleging PM Narendra Modi led BJP government, BJP leaders, and the ECI of disrupting her political campaign. Now she has even expressed fear and filed a petition in the High Court that many of her party leaders and workers may be arrested before voting.
ED’s crackdown on TMC’s campaign strategist I-PAC is one of the biggest disruptions, which has been central to TMC’s election machinery. ED raids, arrests, and summons have targetted I-PAC leadership in a several years old case. This action has operation impact on TMC’s field activities which had to be scaled down or temporarily halted. Staff shifted to work-from-home mode. Internal communication restricted. Engagement with top leadership has reduced which affected coordination. I-PAC’s work has now completely at halt. However, Trinamool has shifted its campaign strategy to its internal mechanism which includes its organizational setup up to the grassroot level. TMC claims that it is politically motivated interference by the Centre, aimed at crippling its campaign infrastructure.
Nevertheless, the ED investigation linked to alleged scams has become a major issue. Even court proceedings involving several issues apart from ED cases are coinciding with polling phases. It has created narrative pressure against the TMC, and its time and attention has been considerable diverted from election campaign.
A TMC functionary was also shot in South 24 Parganas, which highlights ground level risks among the political leaders due to violence and security concerns. TMC’s campaign mobility gets restrict, and Cadre morale and safety has become a concern.
It is not only TMC is alleging disruption by other parties in their campaign activities, but other rival political parties are also making serious allegations against TMC. In brief rival parties are making serious allegations and counter-allegations against each other. It is clear that election campaign has shifted from policy debate to conflict-driven narratives, that has increased polarization and volatility.
On account of disruption, TMC has to increase door-to-door campaigning to compensate for the loss. The party has been able to transition its campaign from professional campaign management to internal mobilization.
Despite several disruption TMC’s campaign continued with more aggressive narrative against the BJP. The party has decentralized its campaign and relying more on grassroots mobilization.
BJP is comparatively less disrupted structurally, but it has its own constraints. The party led by star campaigner like PM Narendra Modi and Union Minister of Home Amit Shah seems to be successfully pushed corruption allegation against TMC into mainstream discourse. They seemed polarized Hindu voters to some extent. However, they have limited deep grassroots network compared to TMC in rural Bengal. Moreover, the state BJP is plagued with factionalism.
Left-Congress alliance has weak structure and lacks strong mobilizing momentum, though their campaign suffered less disruption. Their scale of campaign is already limited.
BJP’s and ECI’s actions are seem as creating troubles for TMC. Mamata has successfully pushed victimhood narrative. It has created a West Bengal vs Centre narrative. Her speeches have emotional appeal among voters, which have consolidated minority and regional identity votes.
A highly confrontational environment seems to benefit the incumbent in Bengal. The real contest is between TMC and BJP, and other parties are getting squeezed. Voters seem to choosing between the local identity and the fear of the other “outsider”. Historically, Mamata has thrived in such polarized contests. The perceived disruption to Mamata and TMC gives her advantage of sympathy and consolidation effect. BJP’s overall strategy seems not to have considerable influence on voters to throw Mamata out of power. (IPA Service)
