By Sushil Kutty
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party ever get more than a foothold in states south other than in Karnataka? The number of times the BJP has undertaken serious forays down south has been equalled only by the number of times the Congress has launched Rahul Gandhi in politics, of which the ongoing Bharat Jodo Yatra is the latest attempt, the most successful one so far.
The BJP must be keeping that in mind as it makes another attempt to prove that if Rahul Gandhi can make a dash from Amethi in Uttar Pradesh and make a mark in Wayanad in Kerala, then why cannot the BJP transplant its Hindutva ideology from Yogi Adityanath’s UP to God’s Own Country Kerala where Rahul Gandhi finds more acceptance than the BJP does in Ayodhya.
It must be frustrating for the BJP that half the country does not seem to be interested in the BJP’s famously cited divisive politics. The BJP’s miracle man in Tamil Nadu Annamalai has his own ideas as he matches wrist watch for wrist watch with Chief Minister MK Stalin’s chosen successor and heir apparent Udayanidhi Stalin, the latest son to rise and bloom in India. Annamalai is all set to take Tamil Nadu by storm with a Tamil Nadu Jodo Yatra slated to hit the streets by April.
Some very optimistic pro-BJP political analysts say foolishly or foolhardily that the BJP will go on to bag at least 20 Lok Sabha seats in Tamil Nadu and Annamalai will be the next thing to a tsunami after he’s done with mapping Tamil Nadu with his feet. But that’s if you are willing to ignore the ideological sway that Stalin’s party DMK has over the Tamil electorate.
Rahul Gandhi began his Bharat Jodo Yatra from Kanyakumari in Tamil Nadu and now south actor Kamal Haasan has turned journalist, asking Rahul what are his plans for India under Rahul Gandhi! Actor Akshay Kumar interviewed Prime Minister Narendra Modi and that fellow never asked what Modi’s political powerpoints were, a missed opportunity he will regret when it’s his time to Valhalla.
Prime Minister Modi’s one dream is to get at least 60 Lok Sabha seats from the southern states of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. It is the target set by the BJP for 2024 general elections. A tall task indeed for a party which cannot break its southern jinx that prevents it from being an all-India party in the truest sense.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi for all his electoral invincibility isn’t the King of all he surveys from up above in the sky. Not if the BJP doesn’t get even a quarter of the South’s parliamentary seats. That the BJP is a Hindi-heartland political party is written in the legacy-chart Modi will leave behind if Rahul’s Bharat Jodo Yatra had united the South and the Congress takes all the southern Lok Sabha seats.
The truth is as Rahul Gandhi heads north for destination Lal Chowk, Srinagar, in Kashmir, the BJP is making serious preparations to break its southern jinx and corner a bigger number of Lok Sabha seats in the 2024 general elections. Previously, the BJP’s southern successes were only in Karnataka. Chief Minister Basavaraj Bommai is not the most charismatic politician in Bengaluru.
The Karnataka assembly elections are a few months away and the BJP has already started campaigning, led by the party’s electoral talisman, Union Minister Amit Shah. Reports say the BJP faces a tough case of anti-incumbency but relies on party warhorse BS Yediyurappa to deliver Karnataka to the BJP one more time. And victory depends how much voters have been polarized with hijab and halal during much of the year gone by.
That said, the BJP has specific 2024 plans for each of the southern states. There are 20 Lok Sabha seats in Kerala, 25 in Andhra Pradesh, 39 in Tamil Nadu, 17 in Telangana, and 28 in Karnataka. The BJP intends to contest all the southern Lok Sabha seats and will go it alone in all the states. Its stated aim is to win a minimum of 60 seats from these southern bastions of the Congress, DMK, CPM, TRS and the YSRCP.
The reality is, the BJP has to make a dent in the south, maximize it’s takings from these states, as it may not get the same response in the states “up north” like it did in 2019. The BJP’s chances in Karnataka are seriously in doubt and the party may not be able to retain fortress Karnataka in the assembly elections due in a couple of months.
That said the party is leaving no stone unturned to not lose the state to the Congress, which is on a high after Rahul Gandhi’s BJY passed through the state in high spirits, The Bharatiya Janata Party’s strategy to retain Karnataka is different from the last time. While preparations are in full swing, experienced BJP leaders with RSS background have been posted in the state to train BJP workers in all the constituencies. (IPA Service)
