By Satyaki Chakraborty
The inevitable happened on September 8 in French Parliament as Prime Minister Francis Bayrou lost the confidence vote on his minority government by 364 to 194 in the house of 577 giving a clear indication that many of the members of the Macron’s centrist party voted against the confidence motion. President Macron who appointed Bayrou as the PM early this year denying the demand of the New Popular Front, the largest block in the Parliament, has lost his image a lot as the political parties are blaming him for the present political crisis in the country.
Bayrou handed over his resignation to the President on Tuesday morning .Macron will have to appoint a new Prime Minister who will be able to command majority to run the trifurcated Parliament between the Left, Far Right and the Centrists led by the President’s Party. The new one will be the third Prime Minister in the last one year since the national elections in France in July 2024 and the fifth since Macron took over as the President for the second time in 2022.
As per the Constitution, the general elections can be held any time after one year of the last elections. So President Macron can order a fresh general elections since 14 months have passed since the last elections, but he is not inclined to do that as the opinion polls indicate that his party will lose if a fresh election is held now. So he is again exploring the possibility of forming a government with a new Prime Minister of his choice. Macron himself will be ending his term in 2027. He is not allowed to contest for the third time. So his Presidency will expire in 2027.
The priority for Macron is to appoint a prime minister able to push through a budget for 2026. Bayrou’s unpopular plan for a €44bn (£38bn) budget squeeze and austerity programme to reduce France’s public debt is now certain to be shelved, including his contested proposal to scrap two public holidays. Any new government will have to start budget preparation with a fresh look. This is a real problem because the Left proposals will not be acceptable to Far Right leader Marie Le Pen who has already announced her distaste of any economic package suggested by the Left.
Bayrou is the second PM to fall since the snap election in July last year – the rightwing Michel Barnier was ousted after just three months in December. Bayrou had become the most unpopular French prime minister since 1958, largely over his unpopular budget but also his perceived lack of government action.
The root of the present political crisis lies in the manner in which the President Macron is handling the government formation refusing to take into account the verdict of the July 2024 general elections. In that elections, the Left combination known as New Popular Front got the highest number of seats- a total of 182 in a house of 577, followed by President Macron’s Party getting 163 and the far right RN 143 seats. The NPF was entitled to form the government as the leading combination but President Macron made all efforts to help in the formation of a government excluding the Left.
As a result, more than three months were taken in forming a fragile coalition ministry which got the support of the far right RN from outside. This Macron inspired coalition has always been fragile and dependent on the far right. The NPF has been consistently demanding its resignation but the government continues with outside support of RN and a section of the Socialists. This arrangement got a jolt in the last week of August this year with the socialists declaring their opposition to the confidence motion tabled by Prime Minister Bayrou meaning that the prime minister Bayrou had no chance to survive the motion. Finally on September 8, the verdict was on predictable lines.
For the French people, the austerity measures imposed by the French government under President Macron are issues of concern to the middle class and the workers. President Macron who won his second term in 2022 presidential elections will remain only till 2027 as he is not entitled to contest for the third term as per the French constitution. He has warned against complacency among the French people saying the years of abundance are over. President has targeted the subsidies and the retirement benefits which the French people have been enjoying for decades.
Prime Minister Bayrou’s minority government planned to reduce the budget deficit from last year’s 5.8 per cent of GDP to 4.6 per cent in 2026. This will need lot of cuts in subsidies enjoyed by the French people. Both the Left and the far right have opposed the budget proposals. Supporters of President Macron as also many others of the present coalition camp tried to woo the Socialists to support the confidence motion, but that failed. The Socialists are with NPF.
In a similar situation on December 4, 2024, no-confidence motion brought by an alliance of left-wing parties under New Popular Front was supported by MPs from Marine Le Pen’s anti-immigration, far-right, National Rally. A total of 331 lawmakers — a clear majority — voted to bring down the government. The defeat of Barnier led coalition was a personal defeat of President Emanuel Macron who defied the mandate of the latest national elections by not inviting the largest group in the new National assembly the NFP.
In the July 2024 elections, out of the total of 577 seats in the national assembly, the left coalition NPF got 182 seats, followed by President Macron’s coalition Ensemble Alliance 163 seats and the far right National Rally (RN) led by Marie Le Pen 143 seats. The other right parties got 68 seats, the other left 11 and fringe parties got ten seats. Earlier in the run off to the national elections in July, President Macron instructed his supporters to have an understanding with the Left in many seats to defeat unitedly the far right candidates. This was done with the stated objective that the far right will not be allowed to take over power in France. This worked well leading to the putting of the surging far right to the third place in the newly elected national assembly.
But soon after the elections, President Macron took an ideologically opposite turn. Instead of opting for an anti-right coalition led by NFP and supported by his Ensemble alliance to run the new government, he explored the possibility of a non-Left coalition ignoring the people’s mandate given in the national elections in July 2024.Macron invited the Conservative leader veteran Michel Barnier to form the government with the outside support of the far right RN.. After the Barnier government fell in December 2024, President Macron again played his anti-Left political games and chose Bayrou government based on the outside support of Far Right party.
Le Pen has a roadmap. She thinks that the present political crisis has helped her in improving her political base at the cost of the President Macron’s party. The far right supremo wants to get a good part of the eroding popular base of Macron and then she will be facing the next presidential elections in 2027. According to her analysis, the Left and Macron cannot work together so a new alternative without far right support is not possible. Le Pen is presently embroiled in a legal battle over charges of corruption. She has been shunted out for five years from contesting but she is challenging that in court. Political parties are anxiously waiting for the verdict. In any case, she has other senior leaders, so she can back any other in the coming presidential elections when Macron will not be the candidate.
Political observers who are concerned at the rise of neo fascism in France through Le Pen’s NR say that this is the right time for President Macron to allow the NFP to form the new government with the support from his Ensemble Alliance. That is the only option now to have a stable pro-people government. Otherwise, the continuing crisis will only help the far right Le Pen in progressing further in her goal of achieving power in France. That way, the progress of neo-fascism in France will depend on what decision President Macron takes in choosing his Prime Minister. The entire country is watching. (IPA Service)
