By Tirthankar Mitra
KOLKATA: By-poll results are usually predictable going in favour of the ruling party but the victory margin of twin electoral contests at Rejinagar and Nandigram declared on Friday, October 9 came as surprises. Even as a motley Opposition cried itself hoarse alleging electoral malpractices, thumping victories were registered by BJP candidates in both constituencies inhabited by a sizeable Muslim population who had not voted for the saffron outfit in successive elections.
The by-polls assume significance as they are first electoral test of the BJP after regime change which they had to pass with flying colours lest the Assembly election success be considered a fluke. Moreover, chief minister Suvendu Adhikari has called upon Nandigram voters to give his party a bigger victory than his own victory margin of 9,665 votes.
BJP nominee, Hashirani Rath won by a margin of more than 1,15,000 votes against her Congress opponent Milan Pradhan in Nandigram. The ruling party’s nominee Sakharov Sarkar beat his principal challenger Golam Nabi Azad of Aam Janata Unnayan Party (AJUP) by 72,710 votes in Rejinagar.
These overwhelming by election victories are in contrast to 2013 when three by-polls were first held during Trinamool regime. The ruling party lost two of them at Rejinagar and Nalhati. It has now made political observers state that unlike Trinamool dispensation chief minister, Adhikari has made good his claim that he knows how to conduct elections (aami vote karate jani).
Not mincing his words, former state Congress chief Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury alleged that “silent terror” was unleashed on the polling day. However, there were no reports of violence on the day of elections and Chowdhury added what the Trinamool ” could not achieve in two years, the BJP has done in five months”.
Communal card was sought to be played at Rejinagar and the ploy was countered. It is not often Muslim voters exercise their franchise in favour of BJP, but both the constituencies with high level of minority voters witnessed a new surge of support for the saffron camp.
By -election was necessitated at Nandigram after its MLA Suvendu Adhikari resigned having defeated the then chief minister Mamata Banerjee at her home constituency of Bhowanipore. Adhikari had inflicted a defeat on Banerjee at Nandigram by a wafer thin margin in 2021 Assembly elections.
While Nandigram is considered a safe seat for the BJP, it was more worried about its victory margin than its electoral success. Nandigram with 27 per. cent Muslim voters has more than fulfilled the ruling party’s expectations.
Chief Minister Adhikari’s last minute outreach to Muslim voters mattered more than its political symbolism. Nandigram has 27 per cent Muslim voters numbering about 72,000. The chief minister’s attempt to break with BJP’s long-standing difficulty with minority voters has succeeded. In his final campaign push he has appealed to Muslims to support his party thereby acknowledging that the community did not vote for the BJP in significant numbers in past elections.
A split in Trinamool Congress lent credence to the chief minister’s appeal. An unspoken message was conveyed that a splintered TMC would not be able to protect minority interest and it is time for them to switch traditional allies and find a new ally.
The by-polls were preceded by a split in Trinamool Congress and the faction owing allegiance to Banerjee contested its first bypoll under Mamata All India Trinamool Congress. It started badly for it as the MAITC nominee Sanchita De switched sides after calling on chief Adhikari and ” paying her respect” at Nabanna, the state secretariat.
Seeing there was no time to replace her, Banerjee extended her support to Congress nominee Milan Pradhan. As the Congress and MAITC leaders were readying for a joint campaign Pradhan was arrested in connection with a more than decade old case cutting short his poll campaigning.
The turn of events caught both the Congress and MAITC leadership on the wrong foot. It was all the .more so as the arrest came just as the MAITC leaders were patting themselves on their back.
Matters became curiouser after the nature of charge behind Pradhan’s arrest and remaining in custody came into public domain. He was among the many including Adhikari and Banerjee who participated in the agitation over giving an overseas group land for a proposed chemical bub.
Pradhan found himself behind the bars for being a participant in an agitation which had sky rocketed the fame of Banerjee and Adhikari. He was later released on bail and took part in what can be stated to be a short campaign but led to his getting some “sympathy votes.”
Chance had put Pradhan in the shoes of the joint candidate of both Congress and MAITC at Nandigram. But his arrest depleted the chances of Congress and MAITC putting up a strong resistance to BJP though Congress nominee came second in Nandigram by poll.
Incidentally, both the BJP and Congress nominees rode the sympathy factor at Nandigram. Rath whose son, a close aide of Adhikari when he was Leader of the Opposition was assassinated after BJP came to power, people sympathized with Pradhan after his arrest, hence the rise in the votes for Congress.
But given the turn of events during the campaign and polling day, Rath a political novice surged ahead of Pradhan, a veteran political activist. The trend became public on the day results were announced.
Rejinagar bypoll was announced after its winner Humayun Kabir who happens to be the Aam Janata Unnayan Party founder stepped down having won from Nowdah constituency. He had nominated his son Golam Nabi Azad from this seat.
Kabir who was expelled from Trinamool Congress after he gave a call to build a replica of Babri mosque has been in the news for the wrong reasons. He had considered the demography of Rejinagar which has 70 per cent Muslim population to be his fort.
All other political outfits except BJP which has fielded a Hindu nominee shared his thinking of cashing on minority sentiments. But this game plan was negated after chief minister, Adhikari called upon the Muslim voters during the campaign to extend the hand of friendship towards BJP on the polling day leaving an unsaid hint that otherwise development work will bypass the minority populace of these constituencies.
Little has gone Kabir’s way ever since the by – elections were announced. He faced police interrogation post unearthing of a sordid plot to stoke communal tension in Rejinagar. He was arrested on election day following a heated exchange with the police. The next day, Kabir was in tears while thinking aloud about saying good bye to politics.
It was a sure signal of his losing hope of victory at Rejinagar which he once considered to be his pocket borough. If he had thought of wresting a victory even on communal lines, chief minister Adhikari stole his thunder making an offer of friendship to majority of the Rejinagar voters which they did not feel like refusing.
At both Nandigram and Rejinagar, the BJP has cracked the wall of minority anathema to it. While Opposition leaders have in one voice alleged that the saffron dispensation did not let the by-polls be held in a level playing field.
There were charges of seizing poll documents of Opposition supporters at Nandigram and Rejinagar before they could cast their votes. Some of them allegedly prevented them from casting their votes on the polling day.
On the face of it, the twin victories indicate BJP overcoming minority apathy to it while adding to its brute majority in the state Assembly. But Congress coming second in Nandigram by-election has found some ground below its feet is the only compensation for an outfit which is still in the sidelines of present day West Bengal politics. But in this positioning also, Congress candidate got votes from Mamata AITC voters.
As regards the CPI(M) which put up a candidate at Rejinagar by poll, the candidate stood fifth much below Mamata AITC and Congress. The Party, despite all the anti-SIR demonstrations throughout the state, could not improve its position at all. The candidate forfeited his deposit. The position of the rebel Trinamool Democratic TMC was far worse. Both the candidates fared miserably compared to Mamata AITC and Congress candidates. It was proved that at base level, Mamata remains far more powerful in Bengal politics compared to the rival group who has more numbers.
The bypoll results will be impacting the mood in the coming elections to the city corporations and municipalities in November end this year. The Congress at the state level may be more interested in having alliance with Mamata group rather than aligning with the CPI(M) and the Left which are still out of favour of the common voters. After Puja festival, both the rejuvenated state BJP and the a bit disappointed opposition will be starting campaign for the civic polls, the second much wider test after the coming to power of the BJP in Bengal in 2026 assembly elections. (IPA Service)
