By Arun Srivastava
It would be politically naive to look at the decision of Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee to stay out of the Nandigram by-poll purely as a calculated move to avoid a trap set by her opponents. Yet another significant move Mamata has made is of a tactical outreach by offering the Nandigram assembly seat to the Congress for the upcoming October 6 by-poll. While it highlights localised seat-adjustment efforts amid ongoing internal and external political realignments, it also points to pragmatic electoral calculations for specific high-profile by-polls. For decades, both the parties did not have working relations and have frequently clashed or pursued solo paths in West Bengal. Now, any reported gesture of accommodation reflects the continuous, fluid tug-of-war over the opposition space and local electoral dominance.
Nevertheless,Mamata’s move has wider implications. Her decision to bypass contesting the high-profile Nandigram by-poll is a deliberate strategic play rather than a simple evasion of a “trap”. The offer for seat adjustment is an indicator of revival of the INDIA bloc in the state, minus her sworn enemy CPI(M). On the other hand, offer –from the leader of the breakaway rebel faction of the TMC, Ritabrata Banerjee, who has no popular following even to win a municipal election – to withdraw his candidate and support Mamata if she contests, exposes the saffron conspiracy. A split opposition will serve only saffron interest.
If the saffron ecosystem’s view is skewed, so is the strategy of Mamata. BJP might have won the Bengal assembly elections, staggering SIR deletions notwithstanding,and weakened the TMC, but it has also reinjected political life to West Bengal Congress and the Left. The refusal to accept Mamata’s offer has come from the Congress high command. It has smelt the opportunity and does not intend to lose it. Instead, it intends to project itself as the real challenger to BJP-RSS and retrieve its lost ground from TMC and CPI(M). The Congress is positioning itself as a left-to-the-centre party, and is looking at attracting a sizeable section of the urban middle-class and rural anti-saffron votes.
The Congress has declined the Mamata-led Trinamool Congress faction’s (TMC) by-poll alliance proposal to rebuild its own grassroot base and organisational strength in West Bengal. Key reason for this reluctance has been the urge to rebuildthe party base. The national Congress leadership feels that tying up with the TMC would neutralise its ongoing efforts to revive political presence after years of decline and decimation in the state. Even district-level leaders and local cadres strongly opposed a seat-sharing arrangement, citing past animosity, clashes, and mistreatment of party workers by TMC members. While both parties cooperate nationally under the INDIA bloc, their local electoral goals in West Bengal directly clash as they compete for the same voter base.
It is a fact that the Bengali middle-class (bhadralok) has significantly shifted its loyalty away from the CPI(M) and the Left Front during the era of globalization. This transformation happened because the aspirations of the middle-class changed, while the ruling party struggled to adapt to the post-1991 globalized economy.The collapse of this long-standing relationship between the CPI(M) and the Bengali middle-class occurred due to several interconnected factors.The shift from ideology to aspirations happened.The Bengali middle-class was the intellectual backbone of the Left, valuing steady government jobs, cultural activities, and socialist ideals. However, the economic liberalisation of the 1990s gave rise to a new, consumer-driven Indian middle-class.Younger generations wanted high-paying private-sector jobs, corporate careers, and modern consumer lifestyles, and had very little affinity for the Left’s principled approach.
The Left’s inability to comprehend the shift and evolve an alternative way out has been a major factor. The CPI(M)’s traditional anti-capitalist stance made it slow to welcome private investment. While western Indian states became global tech hubs, West Bengal suffered from massive capital flight and industrial stagnation. In a highly globalised job market, English proficiency and technical education became essential tools for upward social mobility.In the 1980s, the Left Front government removed English from the primary school curriculum in state-run schools.While wealthier elites could afford private English-medium schools, the lower-middle and middle classes were left at a severe disadvantage in the global service and IT sectors. This policy deeply alienated middle-class families, forcing hundreds of thousands of students to leave Bengal for higher studies and employment. Deep politicisation of institutions has been yet another alienating factor. Under the CPI(M), a system of “cadre raj” dominated everyday life. Universities, schools, hospitals, and local clubs were heavily controlled by party committees. Over time, the middle class—which deeply values intellectual autonomy—grew tired of this intense political surveillance, nepotism, and bureaucratic high-handedness.
Nevertheless, the final turning point was Nandigram. Once the CPI(M) finally recognised the pressure of globalisation and tried to aggressively industrialise under Chief Minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee in the mid-2000s, time betrayed them. Unfortunately, the CPI(M) leadership could not comprehend and respond to the desires of middle class. It was too late and too little. The government’s attempts to forcefully acquire agricultural land for major private corporations (like Tata in Singur and a chemical hub in Nandigram) not only alienated its core rural voter base, it even estranged the middle-class for whom the Left was aiming to bring industries in Singur and Nandigram.
Writers, artists, and educators who had supported the Left for decades formally withdrew their loyalty, and lent support to Mamata Banerjee. Ultimately, the globalisation era exposed a stark contradiction: the Bengali middle-class desired the fruits of global capitalism, while the CPI(M) remained ideologically tethered to an older, agro-centric development model. By the time the party tried to adapt, it was too late to salvage its relationship with its traditional support base.
The 2021 Nandigram defeat did not hurt Mamata politically, as it could not dent her popularity and support base. Her party won a sweeping majority, but the political reality of 2026 is entirely different. In the 2021 election, though Mamata Banerjee personally lost the Nandigram seat to Suvendu Adhikari by a razor-thin margin of 1956 votes, the TMC secured a massive victory with over 200 seats in the state. TMC and independent political observers alleged that the election was manipulated at the directive of top BJP leadership. While rejecting the outcome Mamata had alleged that foul play, counting discrepancies, and a sudden power cut during the counting process were used to alter the results, claiming the ECI openly favoured the BJP. Mamata challenged the results formally by filing an election petition in the Calcutta High Court,and the verdict is still awaited. The verdict was delayed by judge’s recusal (Justice Kausik Chanda) and procedural adjournments awaiting apex court transfers. Pleadings were largely completed, but the matter has remained pending in court without a definitive final verdict on the manipulation allegations.
In the Nandigram by-poll, assembly seat vacated by CM Suvendu Adhikari, who retained his Bhabanipur assembly seat, instead of stepping into the trap, Mamata nominated a fresh face, Sanchita Pradhan Dey, for the October 6, by-election. Dey is a schoolteacher who lost her job during the high-profile 26,000 teachers’ recruitment scam, but fought and won her job back via a Supreme Court order. By fielding a victim of the very administration scam that plagued her party, Mamata is attempting to shift the narrative from political corruption to resilience and clean, grassroots representation. The by-poll has turned into a three-way factional and emotional battle. While TMC has fielded Dey, the BJP has nominatedHasirani Rath, mother of Suvendu Adhikari’s slain former PA, Chandranath Rath.
Mamata’s refusing to contest is an astute move. Mamata Banerjee’s candidacy in a Nandigram by-poll would have triggered an intense, resource-heavy campaign from BJP. The BJP national leadership, especially Amit Shah, the bête noire of Mamata, would have used his all might and resources to ensure her defeat. The records of the bureaucracy and police during 2026 assembly elections, leave no doubt that it would have turned more ruthless and foil her victory. In case Mamata had contested and won the by-poll, it would have shattered the BJP’s future and spark a massive pan-India hype against saffron ecosystem. Numerically, Mamata’s win would not have had any impact on the West Bengal government’s survival. The BJP would remain firmly in control of the state’s administration with Suvendu Adhikari as Chief Minister. But, still, it would have shaken the BJP.
Certainly, Amit Shah would not have cherished this scenario. The Union home minister and BJP’s chief strategist would have ensured a devastating defeat for Mamata, by hook or crook. Nandigram is not just any political constituency; it is the foundational bedrock of Mamata Banerjee’s political identity. Loss of political legitimacy and the “mother constituency”, Nandigram, the historic site of the 2007 anti-land acquisition movement that catapulted Mamata Banerjee and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) to power in 2011, ending 34 years of Left Front rule in West Bengal, would be tantamount to closing the curtains on her long political career. Even after losing the 2026 assembly,Mamata emerged like phoenix and tens of thousands thronged to her rallies. But losing Nandigram all over again means losing the very ground that defined her as a mass leader. It strips away the narrative that she is the undisputed protector of Bengal’s rural and farming communities.It would have also severely damaged her reputation as an invincible street fighter.
TMC’s political machine relies heavily on Mamata Banerjee’s image as an undefeated, fiery leader. A defeat at the hands of the BJP in her own historic stronghold signals to party workers that the opposition has successfully cracked her armour. It invites internal rebellion, shifts factional loyalties, and weakens her grip over regional leaders.She would lose her national status. On the contrary, a victory for Sanchita Pradhan Dey in the Nandigram by-election would significantly strengthen Mamata Banerjee’s political status and restore her faction’s authority over the fractured state political structure.
The Nandigram seat has become the ultimate symbolic battlefield for regional supremacy. An analytical breakdown reveals how a victory for Dey would alter the state’s power dynamics,crushing internal rebellion and possibly forcing the rebels to come back. By fielding a relatively fresh face and former primary teacher like Dey instead of a seasoned heavyweight, a win would demonstrate that Mamata Banerjee’s personal brand and choice still carry definitive electoral weight. The rebel faction has publicly highlighted that Mamata Banerjee lost her direct election and is currently out of the Assembly. Winning Nandigram via her handpicked proxy would silence internal critics and consolidate her absolute command over the state’s party apparatus.
Wresting this high-profile seat back from the ruling BJP would be an immense psychological and political blow to Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari. It would disrupt the BJP’s momentum. Adhikari has projected a confident victory of over 50,000 votes for the BJP nominee. An upset victory by Dey would immediately halt the BJP’s narrative of unchecked dominance in south Bengal. On the other hand, Dey’s victory would signal that Mamata Banerjee’s camp can successfully navigate anti-incumbency and corruption allegations by aligning directly with local, ground-level victims.(IPA Service)
