The claim, if accepted by the Speaker and sustained under anti-defection rules, would take the ruling alliance closer to the special-majority zone that eluded it during the last Parliament session. The NDA’s working strength in the Lok Sabha is estimated at 293. Support from 19 Trinamool MPs would lift that figure to about 312, still below the two-thirds benchmark but enough to reduce the gap before negotiations with smaller parties and independents.
The immediate contest is over Trinamool’s parliamentary identity. Dissident MPs are preparing to approach Speaker Om Birla with a request to be recognised as a separate group, arguing that they represent the required two-thirds of the party’s current Lok Sabha strength. Trinamool had won 29 seats in the 2024 general election, but its effective strength is 28 after the Basirhat seat fell vacant. On that count, 19 MPs would meet the numerical threshold cited by the rebels.
The legal position remains contested. The Tenth Schedule no longer protects a mere “split” in a legislature party after the 91st Constitutional Amendment. It provides protection from disqualification when not less than two-thirds of a legislature party agrees to a merger. Trinamool loyalists have seized on that distinction, arguing that recognition as a separate bloc cannot be treated as a lawful shortcut. The rebel side maintains that it will follow the procedural route before the Speaker and support the NDA on the floor of the House.
The ruling alliance’s interest is clear. The government’s April defeat on the Constitution 131st Amendment Bill exposed the limits of its majority on measures requiring a special threshold. The Bill, tied to women’s reservation and a wider delimitation package, received more votes in favour than against but failed because it did not secure the required two-thirds of members present and voting. The setback hardened the opposition’s view that numbers, not just alliances, would determine the fate of the government’s most ambitious legislative plans.
A two-thirds mark in a full 543-member House stands at 362, though the operational requirement changes with vacancies, attendance and voting. During the April vote, 528 members were present and the required mark was 352. The government secured 298 votes, leaving it well short despite retaining a comfortable ordinary majority. That experience has pushed the NDA to seek a wider cushion before bringing back any constitutional package related to delimitation, women’s reservation or synchronised elections.
Attention has also shifted to Maharashtra, where speculation has grown that the Shiv Sena could face pressure from the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena. The Uddhav Thackeray-led party has nine Lok Sabha MPs, which means six would be needed to cross the two-thirds threshold. NDA managers see Maharashtra as a possible source of additional support, particularly after the Mahayuti’s strong assembly performance strengthened the Shinde faction and the BJP in the state.
Sena has rejected the speculation. Sanjay Raut has said the party remains united and that Uddhav Thackeray is in touch with all elected representatives. Party MPs have also denied contact with the rival camp. Even so, the talk has acquired significance because six MPs, if they moved together and survived legal scrutiny, would add to the ruling alliance’s numbers at a time when every vote matters.
The larger political picture is one of a ruling coalition trying to convert fragmented opposition ranks into legislative leverage. Trinamool’s crisis follows its loss of power in West Bengal and an internal debate over leadership, organisation and succession. Maharashtra’s opposition camp remains shaped by earlier splits in Shiv Sena and the Nationalist Congress Party, which created rival factions with competing claims to legacy and legitimacy.
