By Arun Srivastava
The electoral future of the Congress and Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh in the context of the 2027 assembly polls, hinges on their ability to mobilize Dalits and OBCs. By aggressively championing a caste census and articulating a credible “social justice” narrative, both parties have successfully cut into the BJP’s base. The longevity of this shift depends on several key dynamics. Whether the Congress and SP will succeed in trouncing the BJP of Yogi Adityanath depends on their ability to use the existing contradictions within the saffron brigade and how far they succeed in foiling Amit Shah’s manoeuvrings to rig and temper the election process, as he has successfully carried out in West Bengal.
The BJP is a divided house in Uttar Pradesh, but when it comes to defeating the INDIA bloc and keep the state power under their belt, they would forget their rivalries and animosity. On the contrary Congress even in the face of existential crisis continues to be deep in the factional fight. Factionalism within the Uttar Pradesh Congress has historically plagued the state unit. The party continues to struggle with chronic infighting. Prolonged delays in organizational overhauls and restructuring have fuelled disillusionment among the local cadres though it apparently presents the façade of united house. Though the objective situation has been in favour of rebuilding and restructuring the party, the leadership could not exploit it to the maximum.
As Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is making no compromises for the upcoming 2027 state assembly elections, having learned from the unexpected setbacks the BJP faced in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the SP-Cong would have to assert more and penetrate to the basic ground level. Yogi is desperate to gain an unprecedented third consecutive term for him. He has been resorting to all the tactics, from 80 vs 20 to polarising Hindu-Muslim and pitching one upper caste against other to consolidate his position. His high-stakes strategy relies on several aggressive manoeuvres to ensure victory.
RSS, expert of booth level management, is already gearing to ensure third time victory for him. While the SP-Cong are yet to issue a command to march to their cadres, the RSS and BJP cadres are conducting door-to-door campaigns to bridge gaps with voters, ensuring beneficiaries of state welfare schemes remain loyal to the BJP. He has weaponised the upper caste society to such an extent that they revere him as Bulldozer Baba and do not see his action as violation of basic human rights.
Realizing that the SP successfully weaponized caste dynamics in 2024, the BJP is heavily fine-tuning its non-Yadav Other Backward Class (OBC) and non-Jatav Dalit outreach to prevent vote fragmentation. Political analysts view the 2027 polls as an existential test for the BJP’s strength in the Hindi heartland, requiring a meticulous combination of development and hardline nationalism to win. For up-to-date developments on the ground as the race intensifies, you can track local updates on The Times of India or national political analyses on Business Today.
Winning the 2027 Uttar Pradesh assembly election is an absolute imperative for Yogi Adityanath and the BJP. For Yogi, it is a crucial test of his legacy and political future, while for the BJP, retaining India’s largest and most politically significant state is essential to maintain its national hegemony and momentum for the 2029 general elections. The stakes and survival strategies for both are highly focused. The BJP leadership has officially named Yogi Adityanath as the Chief Ministerial face for the 2027 elections early, turning the upcoming battle into a direct referendum on his governance. Following the setback in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the party is aggressively realigning its strategy. The state government has expanded the cabinet to ensure stronger OBC and Dalit representation, aiming to counter the opposition Samajwadi Party’s social coalition
The Samajwadi Party’s “PDA” (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) formula and Rahul Gandhi’s push for a comprehensive caste census have directly challenged the BJP’s hegemony among marginalized communities. This coalition gained major traction by convincing non-dominant OBCs and non-Jatav Dalits that their political representation and constitutional rights were at risk. .Nevertheless for solidifying this voter base, both parties must look beyond traditional, dominant OBC representation (like the Yadavs in UP) and share power equitably with non-dominant OBCs and Dalits. The INDIA bloc’s past successes proved that giving tickets to non-Yadav OBCs and Dalits based on their actual population size resonates deeply at the grassroots level.
A core vulnerability for the SP and Congress is entering of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in election fray. The chances of BSP chief Mayawati getting favour from the Jatavs and Dalits is quite bleak, but it cannot be denied that it would create confusion which will eventually help the BJP. Though Mayawati has lost her charisma and support base, she still enjoys support of 44 per cent of the Jatavs who constitute 9 percent of the statewide vote share. Community’s backing for the BSP has heavily eroded in recent years. Significant number of Dalits have rallied behind Chandrashekhar Azad (Ravan)’s Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) who challenges established Dalit and minority vote banks.
Discontent among some Dalit leaders within the BJP against Yogi has been a recurring theme, driven by accusations of caste bias, neglect of community interests, and unaddressed grievances. Dalit MPs have rebelled, publicly accusing Yogi of ignoring the community. Robertsganj MP Chhote Lal Kharwar wrote to Narendra Modi alleging caste-based discrimination. Ahead of elections, the BJP leadership has been striving to balance the social coalition. The BJP inducted two Dalits as ministers to solidify its core Dalit vote base.
Undeniably Dalit alienation from Yogi is a prominent issue raised by opposition parties and civil rights groups, who point to specific incidents of state violence, caste oppression, and high-profile police encounters as the root causes. UP has the highest absolute number of crimes and atrocities against Dalits (Scheduled Castes) in India. Data and human rights documentations consistently rank the state at the top for caste-based violence. Official data releases show that UP accounts for roughly 23% to 25% of all registered crimes against Scheduled Castes nationwide.
Human rights monitors calculate that, on average, more than 35 cases of Dalit atrocities are registered daily in Uttar Pradesh alone. Fact-finding reports expose police apathy, delays or outright refusals to file First Information Reports (FIRs) under the mandatory Scheduled Castes and Scheduled Tribes (Prevention of Atrocities) Act. Civil liberties groups highlight that a significant number of those killed in police encounters under the “zero-tolerance” framework belong to marginalized communities, especially Dalits. Extra-judicial methods disproportionately target weaker socio-economic groups.
The state has India’s largest SC/Dalit population, numbering over 4.13 crore (41.35 million). This demographic accounts for roughly 20.7% of the state’s total population. The Dalit community in Uttar Pradesh is highly diverse, comprised of over 60 different sub-castes. Obviously for defeating BJP, it is imperative that SP-Cong combine must have them on their side. The fast emerging Chandrashekhar Azad (Ravan) is a major threat not only to the BJP, but also to the established Dalit and minority vote banks. He has positioned himself as a fiery, street-smart Ambedkarite leader, representing the aspiration of the disillusioned young Dalits. Though it is believed that Samajwadi Party’s (SP) “PDA” alliance faces a direct challenge from Azad roping him in INDIA bloc will be the most gratifying move. “Ravan factor” hinges heavily on whether the Azad Samaj Party goes it alone as an independent force—thus splitting anti-BJP votes—or forms a strategic, alternative coalition with smaller regional and non-dominant caste parties.
Though like any other state in the Hindi heartland, Left was a formidable force in UP and led many armed struggle in the eastern region, in recent time it has declined, but still continues to command support in these areas. Left parties primarily the Communist Party of India (CPI) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) Liberation [CPI(ML)], along with the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] and the Forward Bloc, function primarily as grassroots pressure and advocacy groups. While they lack major legislative seats in the state, they remain highly active in mobilizing workers, farmers, and marginalized communities against state policies. CPI(ML) is heavily involved in resisting eviction drives, advocating for Adivasis, and protesting police encounters or “bulldozer raj” in the state. Major recent actions include protests against the repression of industrial workers in Noida, defending tribal rights in Mirzapur, and demanding judicial inquiries into controversial police encounters.
Usually a poor administrators depends on police and provides it mush leverage. Same has been the case with Yogi. Yogi has miserably failed on economic front. Though BJP claims of economic growth, per capita income has tripled in the last decade, the fact remains that per capita income remains below the national average, leaving significant economic gaps. Economists and opposition leaders argue that job creation has not kept pace with the growing workforce, citing unfulfilled public sector vacancies and distress in the agricultural sector. Obviously in this backdrop, he immensely depends on the police for his survival.
Yogi introduced illegal method of eliminating crime, “Thok do” (shoot them). Shockingly policemen are offered promotions for carrying out encounters; majority of those killed belonged to either Muslim, Dalit and other backward classes. Reports emanating from Lucknow reinforce that oppression and killing innocent people has become a common feature of Yogi rule. On the one hand rapists, rioters and murderers aligned to the BJP are allowed to roam scot-free, on the other, tremendous repression is mounted on the dalits, backwards, women and especially the Muslims
It is absolutely clear that the 2027 assembly election is going to be epic battle. Demolition of the ten year old saffron rule in the state would pave the path for checking the onslaught of the saffron Ashwamedh horse. The decade has witnessed consolidation of Hindu nationalism, and systematically pushing the country towards Rightist Hindu bigotry. Future of Congress, SP and BJP, hinges on the electoral outcome in UP. While a victory for Akhilesh will elevate him to the level of national leader, the Congress will consolidate its pan-India gains and for BJP it would mean further intensifying of communal polarization.
The 2027 Uttar Pradesh Assembly election is not expected to be easy for the BJP. The party faces its toughest political battle in the state since 2014, heavily challenged by a resurgent opposition and complex caste dynamics. While Samajwadi Party and Congress are actively consolidating anti-BJP votes across the state through the SP’s ‘PDA’ (Pichhda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak) alliance formula, BJP is specifically struggling to regain momentum in 61 assembly constituencies across Eastern and Western UP, where the party has consecutively lost in recent electoral cycles. As usual Amit Shah is the boatman with the oar in his hands, how he manages to rig and manipulates elections on the lines of Bihar and Bengal. (IPA Service)
